Nothing like a good ole Easter Day with kids running around for eggs and a tornado across the horizon swirling the skyline.

Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?

Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?

We will see some activity tonight and into tomorrow morning and then clear out and more activity fire up in the afternoon. Not saying a total wash out for tomorrow, but there is that chance. Which most people won't really complain about this year.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0187_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK WITHIN THEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
CONTINUED HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

LOL, I came across this video on the internet. Did anyone here make it?

gHw1CBUt0GE

So is the metro area still getting rain tonight,tomorrow and monday?

Storms are starting to develop in Central and NE OK. Movement will be to the NE around 30 mph. Large hail will be main threat.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
906 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

* at 906 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near meeker...moving northeast at 35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golfballs...

* locations in the warning include davenport...meeker...sparks and
stroud.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0544.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240208Z - 240345Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND ERN OK...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER E CNTRL OK IN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...AND
SEVERAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..JEWELL.. 04/24/2011

Ww 191 severe tstm ok tx 240255z - 241000z axis..80 statute miles east and west of line..
35ene bvo/bartlesville ok/ - 20ssw gyi/sherman tx/ ..aviation coords.. 70nm e/w /16sw osw - 37nne dfw/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0191_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...WW 190...

DISCUSSION...WITH CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NWD THRU ERN HALF OF
OK. WITH MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND BRN SHEAR OF
40-50KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Severe thunderstorm watch probabilities for ws 0191 nws storm prediction center norman ok
0951 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

ws 0191
probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : <05%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : <02%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 20%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 10%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 60%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 30%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 80%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.5
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 24035
particularly dangerous situation : No

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
CLEVELAND COAL CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MARSHALL MAYES MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON


Pray the storms don't miss us this time.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1046 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

* until 1130 pm cdt

* at 1046 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles west of meeker...moving northeast at 55 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...

* locations in the warning include davenport...meeker...sparks and
stroud.

Watch county notification for watch 191...updated
national weather service norman ok
1041 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

okc015-017-031-033-051-073-141-txc009-485-241000-
/o.exa.koun.sv.a.0191.000000t0000z-110424t1000z/

the national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 191 to include the following areas until 5 am cdt sunday

in oklahoma this watch includes 7 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian grady kingfisher

in southwest oklahoma

caddo comanche cotton
tillman

in texas this watch includes 2 counties

in northern texas

archer wichita

this includes the cities of...anadarko...archer city...
Chickasha...el reno...frederick...kingfisher...lawton...mustang.. .
Walters...wichita falls and yukon.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1158 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northern stephens county in southern oklahoma...
Eastern comanche county in southwest oklahoma...
Northeastern cotton county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 1245 am cdt

* at 1158 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 13 miles northwest of empire city...moving northeast
at 45 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail two inches in diameter...

* locations in the warning include acme...agawam...bray...central
high...corum...cox city...duncan...empire city...hulen...marlow...
Norge...rush springs and sterling.

Severe Risk Sunday for most of Central and Eastern OK (including SW OK)...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS SW TX
AND OK TO MID-ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
STG MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ATTENDANT LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG NRN CA COAST
-- ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CA/GREAT BASIN DURING
PERIOD...LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING
ACROSS WRN CONUS. DURING 25/00Z-25/12Z TIME FRAME...RESULTANT
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM UT/AZ ACROSS NM AND MUCH OF
CO...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD.
FOREGOING/WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT OVER SERN CA/WRN
AZ/NWRN SONORA REGION -- WILL MOVE NEWD TO NEAR TX PANHANDLE AND
PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS...BROAD BELT OF SW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...LARGELY PARALLEL TO
PERSISTENT SFC FRONT. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CORRIDOR
FROM NJ AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS KY...AR...SERN OK AND N
TX. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE SHUNTED SWD ANYWHERE ALONG ITS
EXTENT BY MCS OUTFLOWS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION SHOULD RESIDE IN GEN AREA BETWEEN ABI SPS WITH DRYLINE
SWD TOWARD SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AREA OF NRN COAHUILA.

...TX/OK/AR PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA -- DRYLINE/FRONT...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND
DRYLINE...BECOMING MORE DENSE/NUMEROUS OVER FRONT GIVEN NEARLY
PARALLEL NATURE OF MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS...LEADING TO
EARLY TRANSITION TO MESSY CONVECTIVE MODES. MORE ORTHOGONAL
COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT ACROSS DRYLINE...COMPARED TO COLD
FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT MORE DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...FROM NEAR TRIPLE POINT SWD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH HAILSTONES AOA 2.75 INCH DIAMETER LIKELY
IN A FEW SUPERCELLS. ENHANCED SRH AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THAT
PART OF FRONT NEAR DRYLINE MAY AID TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH ALSO
WILL EXIST SOMEWHAT SWD AHEAD OF DRYLINE INTO EARLY EVENING AS LLJ
ENLARGES 0-1 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS.

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS...DCVA...AND STRENGTHENING 500-250 MB LAYER
WINDS ARE ALL EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONCURRENT WITH STG
SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS
POSSIBLE...AMIDST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

GRADUAL NWD SHIFT IN GREATEST CONVECTIVE CONCENTRATION AGAIN IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC
OCCUR N OF SFC FRONT. MAIN CONCERN N OF FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.

-------

Severe Risk Monday is mostly east of I-35.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MO VALLEY LATE.

AS THIS STRONG FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CONUS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST...AS A DEEPENING LOW
TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS LOW -- AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT
PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS -- WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD.

...NERN TX/SERN OK/SERN KS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER
MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS...
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED DAY 2
/MONDAY APRIL 25/ FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT FROM PARTS OF OK/KS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE DAY...A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
FORECAST INVOF N TX/OK IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
CYCLOGENESIS...SHIFTING NEWD INTO MO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW NWD SHIFT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL
MO/SRN IL...WHILE A COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SWEEPS EWD ACROSS ERN
OK.

WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO INHIBIT HEATING -- AND THUS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
THE RISK AREA...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM E TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO AR/SRN
MO AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND
THE FRONT SHARPENS...EXPECT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
ACROSS SWRN MO...ERN OK...AND E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH --
GIVEN STRONG/FAVORABLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH THREATS FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...TORNADOES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG/DAMAGING. THESE INTENSE
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID
MS VALLEY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OVERNIGHT INTO
LINEAR CLUSTERS. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE AS
STORMS SHIFT ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2011

Storm in NW Oklahoma County is showing signs of large hail...may see severe weather develop soon.

Its raining!! Zomfg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No decent rain in the metro yet

No decent rain in the metro yet

I live at Lake Tenkiller, but I'm in Norman for the weekend, it's been raining here most of the night.

It's been raining in Harrah for about 8 hours now.

Pouring in Moore finally.

In Stillwater, it's rained close to an 1 1/2. Ten miles south of there, Perkins, almost 2".

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Here is what the rainfall totals look like so far since Midnight.
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.rainrfc.png

Training of heavy rain is continuing from Chandler to Norman to Chickasha. Additional development is now occurring back to Lawton and Snyder...so we may be talking about some minor urban flooding...especially in Norman as we are all familiar with.

Radar estimate rainfall totals are looking pretty decently. anywhere from 1-3 inches across Norman and northern Cleveland County. 2 to 4 inches in northern and NW Oklahoma County. Higher totals to the NE and South. Of course these are radar estimates and any hail mixed in would raise these estimates a lot.

Officially it looks like Norman has received just under an inch at the airport. Around a half inch at Will Rogers, Wiley Post and Tinker. Over an inch at Guthrie.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0550.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241813Z - 241945Z

TSTMS WILL BUILD SWD FROM CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX AND POSSIBLY
THE TX BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...A COUPLE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. WEATHER WATCH PROBABILITY ISSUANCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
80 PERCENT.

18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW TO THE SW KSPS WITH A WARM FRONT
BOWING ENE INTO SCNTRL/SERN OK AND A COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE NRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. BACKBUILDING CNTRL OK STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT NEAR KLAW RECENTLY...LIKELY OWING TO
HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OVER
SCNTRL AND CNTRL OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER REGION OF STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AMID THE
DEEPENING CU FIELD NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY S OF KABI TO KSJT.
HERE...AIR MASS HAS BEEN RECOVERING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S.

PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHER THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS N TX AND CNTRL/SRN
OK AS STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER S...STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND MOVE SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE HILL
COUNTRY.

..RACY.. 04/24/2011

Strong to severe storms moving into the SW Metro area right now. Large hail main threat currently.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/042411-200p.png

Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
216 pm cdt sun apr 24 2011

okc027-087-109-241945-
/o.con.koun.sv.w.0104.000000t0000z-110424t1945z/
oklahoma ok-cleveland ok-mcclain ok-
216 pm cdt sun apr 24 2011

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 245 pm cdt
for northwestern mcclain...northern cleveland and southeastern
oklahoma counties...

At 215 pm cdt...national weather service radar detected a severe
thunderstorm near moore...moving northeast at 35 mph. This storm
produced dollar sized hail as it moved across newcastle. The
storm has weakened some...however some strengthening is possible
as it moves northeast.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...

* locations in the warning include blanchard...harrah...midwest
city...moore...newcastle...northern norman...northwestern lake
thunderbird...southeastern oklahoma city...stanley draper lake...
Stella...tinker air force base and valley brook.

Lat...lon 3552 9717 3530 9715 3513 9766 3537 9767
time...mot...loc 1915z 245deg 30kt 3533 9746

$$







================================================== ====================
wuus54 koun 241903
svroun
okc027-087-109-241945-
/o.new.koun.sv.w.0104.110424t1903z-110424t1945z/

bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
203 pm cdt sun apr 24 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 245 pm cdt

* at 203 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near newcastle...moving northeast at 35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...

* locations in the warning include blanchard...harrah...midwest
city...moore...newalla...newcastle...northern norman...northwestern
lake thunderbird...southeastern oklahoma city...stanley draper
lake...stella...tinker air force base and valley brook.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
224 pm cdt sun apr 24 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Eastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Western mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Western pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...

* until 330 pm cdt

* at 223 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles northwest of purcell...moving northeast at
35 mph. Other severe thunderstorms were moving northeast out of
grady county and will impact southern mcclain county.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...


* locations in the warning include bethel acres...brooksville...
Cole...criner...dibble...etowah...goldsby...lake thunderbird...
Lexington...macomb...noble...pink...purcell...shaw nee...
Slaughterville...southeastern norman...tecumseh...tribbey and
washington.

Base Reflectivity:
http://www.chatokc.com/images/042411-226p.png

Max Estimated Hail Size:
http://www.chatokc.com/images/042411-226p-h.png

Ww 194 severe tstm ok tx 241930z - 250200z
axis..55 statute miles north and south of line..
55w adm/ardmore ok/ - 20nne rkr/poteau ok/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm n/s /35ene sps - 12wsw fsm/ hail surface and aloft..3 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 192...WW 193...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS ALONG/N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN CENTRAL OK ARE EXPECTED TO ROOT INTO THE DEEPENING MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS SRN OK
AND N TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

WS 0194
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

The chat room at chatokc.com is running. I won't be watching it too much, but the storm reports and twitter feeds are running to stay up to date on the latest info.

In case you can't read the site, that means power is out in Norman. The UPS ran down quite a bit earlier when we were without power, so not sure how much juice it has left. LOL

Mobile version (http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=15458f1f74)

Standalone Version (http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=15458f1f74/height=700/width=800)

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
240 pm cdt sun apr 24 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western pontotoc county in east central oklahoma...
Southeastern garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Northern murray county in southern oklahoma...

* until 330 pm cdt

* at 239 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 5 miles southeast of elmore city...moving northeast at
35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...

* locations in the warning include elmore city...roff...stratford...
Vanoss and wynnewood.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0197_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 192...WW 194...WW
195...WW 196...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE WATCH
WITH NOW FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL OCCUR ALONG E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY FROM N OF MLC TO S OF FSM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

I find it funny how it is a washout for the most of us in the eastern half of the state. It is still raining here nonstop.

Counties are being cleared from the watch now. This is all that is left.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 194/197...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
716 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKC019-067-085-099-TXC077-250200-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.A.0194.000000T0000Z-110425T0200Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE
MURRAY

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

CLAY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARDMORE...HENRIETTA...MARIETTA...
SULPHUR AND WAURIKA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0563.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN/NRN
OK...EXTREME S-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250458Z - 250630Z

POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH 09Z FOR SVR TSTMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...MOVING ENEWD WHILE THREAT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS AREA.

EXPECT MID-UPPER TROUGH...APCHG FROM SWRN CONUS...TO YIELD
SIMULTANEOUS STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ELEVATED/LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT/COOLING OVER THIS AREA. NET RESULT WILL BE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE WINDS IN ELEVATED INFLOW
LAYER...AND INCREASING BUOYANCY. MUCAPE WILL INCREASE WITH EWD
EXTENT AND WITH TIME ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...REACHING UP TO 2000
J/KG NEAR I-40 IN CENTRAL OK THROUGH 09Z. IR IMAGERY INDICATES
COOLING LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION...EVIDENCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT SPREADING EWD OVER REGION AND PROBABLE
PRECURSOR TO ADDITIONAL DEEP-CONVECTIVE FORMATION DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE FOCI IN ELEVATED-INITIATION SITUATIONS TYPICALLY ARE
RATHER NEBULOUS...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED INVOF
850-MB WARM FRONT OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK...IN LAYER PROGGED TO
EXPERIENCE GREATEST ASCENT THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2011

Translation and time frame, please. :-D

Why is NWS predicting so different?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=130373 0387

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0201_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CORSICANA TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...WW 200...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER NORTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHEAST OK AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH ONLY
A WEAK CAP. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR...COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

WT 0201
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Severe storms are firing in Western Oklahoma and the TX panhandle. Movement is generally to the east.

Per the latest HRRR model, storms could eventually impact Central OK later this evening.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011042519&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1

http://www.chatokc.com/images/042511-448p.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0578.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252224Z - 252330Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR
HAIL...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO DISCRETE/MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A WW.

PROMINENT UPPER VORT /EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ HAS
SHIFTED INTO CNTRL OK...WITH A WEAK TRAILING IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
NERN NM. THIS HAS AIDED IN INITIATING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK AS COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS /-18 TO -20
C/ HAVE YIELDED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH MODERATELY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2011

Special weather statement
national weather service norman ok
803 pm cdt mon apr 25 2011

okz023-027>031-033>042-044>047-051-txz083-085-260200-
caddo ok-pottawatomie ok-seminole ok-cleveland ok-grady ok-mcclain ok-
jackson ok-cotton ok-jefferson ok-kiowa ok-greer ok-tillman ok-
murray ok-johnston ok-comanche ok-garvin ok-marshall ok-harmon ok-
pontotoc ok-carter ok-stephens ok-hardeman tx-wilbarger tx-
803 pm cdt mon apr 25 2011

...significant weather advisory...

This significant weather advisory is for caddo...carter...
Cleveland...comanche...cotton...garvin...grady...g reer...hardeman...
Harmon...jackson...jefferson...johnston...kiowa... marshall...
Mcclain...murray...pontotoc...pottawatomie...semin ole...stephens...
Tillman and wilbarger counties.

As showers left over from dissipating thunderstorms move across
southwest and south central oklahoma...already gusty northerly winds
may be locally enhanced near and to the south of the showers. Wind
gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. A brief rise in temperature may
accompany strong wind gusts.

Hazards include...
Wind gusts to 50 mph...

Today's risk is a pretty mixed bag across the state. The SPC outlook really doesn't cover too much for us. Basically we have a slight risk for most of Southern OK from I-40 south - including parts of the southern Metro area. A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon/this evening to our southeast. A Moderate risk exists for extreme southeast OK and a High Risk for the very southeastern tip of Oklahoma.

The Norman forecast office has a good graphic to sum up what to expect around here...

Update - OUN expanded their slight risk outlook back into NW OK now.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Weather_Story.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg

Only impacts far SE OK, but thought this was a unique, strongly worded MCD that it still should be posted.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0589.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261811Z - 262015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR. A RELATIVELY LONG LEAD
TIME/DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...EAST OF A NEAR I-35 CENTRAL TX
DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW NORTHWARD-RETURNING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH DFW
METRO INTO SOUTHERN AR...HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE CINH. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MIDDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
LIKELY-ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXED CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING LARGE
HAIL/TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHEAST OK.

Catching up on the watches.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0221_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BATESVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW 220...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
DEVELOPING VICINITY WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH SHEAR
CONTINUING TO INCREASE SUPERCELLS WILL INCLUDE BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0218_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...WW 217...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEFT-EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

Okay, that time again for a look into the future that is obviously going to be wrong...but its still fun and interesting.

Through early Wednesday...expect a chance for some scattered showers and storms north of I-40 (or pretty close). Some hail might be mixed in but nothing major. Looks dry after that until oh...Saturday.

Saturday looks like a boundary will be settling in from the NW. Ahead of the front wind swill be out of the SE turning to the SW (NW behind the front). By late afternoon the front should setup pretty close to the I-44 corridor (either side of it). Ahead of the front instabilities will be increasing into the moderate to high categories. Moisture will also be flowing in from the Gulf with dewpoints approaching the low 70s in South Central OK. Some showers and storms are expected to flow along the front by this time frame and increase in coverage overnight. Storms appear to be probably along and south of I-44 from NE OK into the OKC metro area to about Chickasha. Rainfall could be heavy in this area, especially south of I-40 where amounts could get well over 1 inch. Scattered showers will be possible throughout the rest of the state...especially north of I-40.

Sunday May 1st - Appears to be fairly cool across most of the state. Temps may only get into the 50s and 60s for most of the state, except SE OK. Showers and storms will be pushing out across eastern OK as the day goes on and out of the state by midnight (give or take).

May 2nd and 3rd look dry. The 4th looks dry too but some changes on the way. Moisture will increase through the day and temps will warm up to be pretty mild. Overnight storms are possible to form going into May 5th.

Thursday May 5th - Storms may be on going across Southern OK roughly along and south of I-40. As it appears right now, severe threat should be low with this being mostly moderate rain and some hail here and there. Areas south of I-40 could see over 1 inch of rain and less north of I-40.

Dry May 6th and most of the 7th.

Saturday May 7th - Winds will again be out of the SE and will push moisture up from the Gulf. Dewpoints should reach the low 60s and temps into the 70s and 80s. Cap will be fairly strong this day, so not a lot of convection ahead. There could be one or two storms with moderate instability around.

Sunday May 8th - One to watch. ...but we are so far out, these days tend to vanish on the next model run. SE winds will continue to bring moisture into the state. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s to near 70 across most of Central Oklahoma (Central 1/3rd). Forecase CAPE values are 3000 to 4500 j/kg with LI values -10 to -13. Forecasts precip amounts are pretty low which would indicate mostly isolated activity. Again, a long ways out but a day with numbers like this would definitely be a high end severe weather day...but I don't see this sticking around very long. Looks back at the various model runs, the 00Z run for the last couple of days has continued to highlight this as a high end severe weather day...but the 6Z, 12Z and 18Z runs keep bouncing back and forth to nothing or eastern OK or NW OK or every other possible scenario in a 300 mile radius.

Monday May 9th - We'll see a surface low kick out from the Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley area. This will cool things down, have some associated showers/storms in the north during the morning but that's about it.

Dry and cool with a slow warming trend into the 11th and 12th.

Thursday May 12 - Chance of storms anywhere in the Plains states, but precip doesn't look all that probably right now. Still...384 hours out, this forecast has a 0.1% of really being accurate. LOL

So that's all we have coming it looks like right now. So far pretty tame compared to the mid section and SE section of the nation. Of course, as we all know, it only takes one day...one 6 hour period to make it a record breaking severe weather season in Oklahoma.

Slight risk of severe weather Saturday across far southern OK.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND
ADJACENT SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
DIGGING/PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...DISASSEMBLING INTO TO
SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WITH TIME -- A MORE NRN SHORT-WAVE FEATURE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE...AND A SECOND FEATURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY DIGGING SSEWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO AZ/NM.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES...THE NRN PORTION OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
LATE. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LIKELY SLOWING OR EVEN STALLING AND LAYING
OUT ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS N TX BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE DAY...MAIN
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF
TX/OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK/N TX...
AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF DAY 3 /SAT. 4-30/ OVER CENTRAL AND N TX.
WITH THE ROUGHLY W-E PORTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO LIE
ACROSS N TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
ELEVATED STORMS. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND 50 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION
APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW
STRONGER/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DEQ 35 NNE TYR 35 S FTW 30 WSW MWL 35 SW SPS 30 S CHK 45 SE OKC 40 SE MLC 15 SW DEQ.

Still going through the model runs for this evening. May 7th. Original we were looking at the 8th, but GFS moving it up a little faster and right now, this could be a day to be extremely concerned about. Still early in my run through, but quick glance just had ridiculous forecast soundings for the area. More later in the new thread.