This bites. So, Norman is out of the game for tornadic activity this early?

Making an update. The dryline has stalled as the models this morning were hinting at. It is currently runnign from Stillwater to Norman to Lindsay and south from there. SPC is thinking it may start retreating a bit to the west before the cold front arrives later.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0426.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN HALF OF OK / PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

VALID 142221Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER 20 NNE OF PNC TO 25 SE OF
OKC TO THE RED RIVER 25 WSW OF ADM AND FARTHER S-SW INTO N-CNTRL TX.
THE ARCING LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD ERN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE WITH MAGNITUDES OF 45 TO 60 KT. THIS
DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT
AS STORMS APPROACH THE TULSA AND MCALESTER AREAS THROUGH 2330Z WHILE
TRAVERSING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
100-200 M2/S2 SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
THIS THREAT WILL FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASE PER
THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE ACROSS SERN OK INTO FAR NERN TX THROUGH 00Z...WHERE SFC-3 KM
CAPE VALUES FROM 100-150 J/KG WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
BUOYANCY TO THE RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION /COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH/.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...CONVECTION IS INITIATING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE NORTH OF THE DFW AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR...THESE
STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE
EVIDENT IN THE SFC-2-KM LAYER PER THE NEARBY FORT WORTH VWP.
THUS...THE TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH BY
ONE TIER OF COUNTIES IN NERN TX IF STORMS FURTHER INTENSIFY.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK...AND POTENTIALLY
BE NUDGED WWD A BIT. THIS MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 00Z AS AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
APPROACHES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
GUIDANCE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH.

This bites. So, Norman is out of the game for tornadic activity this early?

You say that like it's a bad thing?

Sigh. I wish we'd get some rain...

I agree. Not so much for us. We've seen rain. But for the wee ones ....



(have long liked that line)

Would have been nice if everything started 50 miles further west. Close enough to get good rain, but still move east before producing any tornadoes.

Cold front is racing in pretty fast. It has almost cleard OKC and working on Moore and Norman and the east metro now.

You say that like it's a bad thing?

Yeah...I like to drive around and see if I can get close to one. It's been a dull week.

Yeah...I like to drive around and see if I can get close to one. It's been a dull week.

You could've driven a couple hours or so to the east. There were several tornadoes in SE Oklahoma, including one that hit Tushka. South-central and eastern OK saw some much needed rain.

Yeah...I like to drive around and see if I can get close to one. It's been a dull week.

I can understand your interest and curiousity but that's not a good idea. Besides being dangerous, gawkers cause problems for emergency vehicles and emgergency workers.

I can understand your interest and curiousity but that's not a good idea. Besides being dangerous, gawkers cause problems for emergency vehicles and emgergency workers.

Theirs also Sean Casey driving on the wrong side of the road you have to watch out for and all those young people who think their professional storm chasers after watching the Discovery Channel.

I prefer to stay home and watch melodramatic meteorologists on tv. Plus, if you stay in one place in central Oklahoma long enough the tornadoes will find you.

It is interesting to actually read comments made by those that have been "chasing" for 15+ years on various forums or lists. They are very quickly shedding the title "storm chaser" simply because all the yahoos and Discovery Channel destroyed what it was meant to be. They seem to be tired of saying "I'm a storm chaser" and immediately get asked "so you drive into tornadoes like those people on TV?" Now it appears the old vets are simply calling themselves storm or nature observers and leaving it at that.

I chased nonstop for almost 13 years. After quitting, I've never looked back. I would get a small urge to put in the effort to do it again (the forecasting, planning, etc)...but then seeing pictures of "chasers" lined up 200-300 deep on rural highways - no thanks. Heck most years I would only bag a few tornadoes anyway...last year I just had to go out into my front yard and watch the (eventual EF4) tornado spin down Highway 9. That's probably as close to a tornado I'll get again unless one finally decides to come clear out all the brush and trees in the field behind my house. LOL

List of Storm Reports for the April 14th Severe Weather Event...massively long list.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 1 SW DAVIS 34.49N 97.13W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH MURRAY OK PUBLIC

0400 PM HAIL N DAVIS 34.50N 97.12W
04/14/2011 E2.00 INCH MURRAY OK STORM CHASER

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN

0421 PM HAIL HICKORY 34.56N 96.86W
04/14/2011 E1.25 INCH MURRAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0423 PM HAIL SPARKS 35.61N 96.82W
04/14/2011 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN OK PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL SULPHUR 34.51N 96.98W
04/14/2011 E4.25 INCH MURRAY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

MAINLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW SOFTBALL SIZED
PIECES. REPORT RELAYED VIA SULPHUR POLICE DEPARTMENT.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W STROUD 35.75N 96.69W
04/14/2011 LINCOLN OK PUBLIC

SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0442 PM TORNADO 2 NW STROUD 35.77N 96.68W
04/14/2011 LINCOLN OK EMERGENCY MNGR

BRIEF TORNADO.

0445 PM HAIL 6 W TECUMSEH 35.26N 97.04W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH POTTAWATOMIE OK PUBLIC

0446 PM TSTM WND GST STROUD 35.75N 96.66W
04/14/2011 E60.00 MPH LINCOLN OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0500 PM HAIL ROFF 34.63N 96.84W
04/14/2011 E4.25 INCH PONTOTOC OK PUBLIC

0500 PM HAIL 3 W OVERBROOK 34.07N 97.20W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH LOVE OK PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0507 PM HAIL 2 S SULPHUR 34.48N 96.98W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH MURRAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0515 PM HAIL 5 NNW MILL CREEK 34.48N 96.85W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH JOHNSTON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL 2 S MADILL 34.06N 96.77W
04/14/2011 E2.50 INCH MARSHALL OK STORM CHASER

0609 PM TORNADO 2 N MADILL 34.12N 96.77W
04/14/2011 MARSHALL OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TORNADO ON GROUND MOVING ENE. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH
THIS TORNADO.

0620 PM HAIL 5 NNW CENTRAHOMA 34.68N 96.38W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH COAL OK PUBLIC

0622 PM TORNADO 4 S MILBURN 34.18N 96.55W
04/14/2011 JOHNSTON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

STOVEPIPE TORNADO ON GROUND.

0623 PM HAIL TISHOMINGO 34.24N 96.68W
04/14/2011 E4.25 INCH JOHNSTON OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0625 PM HAIL WEWOKA 35.14N 96.50W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH SEMINOLE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN WEWOKA. TIME
ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0638 PM HAIL 5 N HOLDENVILLE 35.16N 96.40W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH HUGHES OK EMERGENCY MNGR

DELAYED REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0645 PM HAIL FILLMORE 34.27N 96.50W
04/14/2011 E4.00 INCH JOHNSTON OK CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 PM HAIL 2 W FITTSTOWN 34.62N 96.67W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH PONTOTOC OK PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC.

0723 PM TORNADO 3 N CANEY 34.28N 96.21W
04/14/2011 ATOKA OK EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS STORM CHASER AND MEDIA REPORTS THAT A LARGE
TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THE CITIES OF TUSHKA AND ATOKA.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF BOTH LOCATIONS.


0740 PM TORNADO LAKE OF THE ARBUCKLES 34.44N 97.01W
04/14/2011 MURRAY OK BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT RELAYED THROUGH KFOR TV.

0745 PM HAIL WARWICK 35.69N 97.00W
04/14/2011 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

0800 PM HAIL MILL CREEK 34.40N 96.82W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH JOHNSTON OK AMATEUR RADIO

1039 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W MEDICINE PARK 34.73N 98.55W
04/14/2011 M64.00 MPH COMANCHE OK MESONET

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W MEDICINE PARK 34.73N 98.55W
04/14/2011 E58.00 MPH COMANCHE OK MESONET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1245 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM HAIL PAWNEE 36.34N 96.80W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH PAWNEE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

0415 PM TORNADO 2 NE BURBANK 36.72N 96.71W
04/14/2011 OSAGE OK STORM CHASER

PRELIMINARY REPORT OF A TORNADO.

0418 PM HAIL SKEDEE 36.38N 96.70W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE OK PUBLIC

0425 PM HAIL SHIDLER 36.78N 96.66W
04/14/2011 E0.88 INCH OSAGE OK PUBLIC

0427 PM HAIL 9 NE RALSTON 36.60N 96.62W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH OSAGE OK PUBLIC

0435 PM HAIL FORAKER 36.87N 96.57W
04/14/2011 E0.75 INCH OSAGE OK CO-OP OBSERVER

0451 PM HAIL HOMINY 36.41N 96.39W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH OSAGE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0453 PM HAIL HOMINY 36.41N 96.39W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH OSAGE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0454 PM HAIL SHAMROCK 35.91N 96.58W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH CREEK OK PUBLIC

0458 PM TSTM WND GST HOMINY 36.41N 96.39W
04/14/2011 E70.00 MPH OSAGE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N HOMINY 36.46N 96.39W
04/14/2011 OSAGE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HOMES DAMAGED - POSSIBLE TORNADO

0501 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N HOMINY 36.44N 96.39W
04/14/2011 OSAGE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TELEPHONE POLES DOWN OVER ROAD.

0504 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S WYNONA 36.52N 96.33W
04/14/2011 M63.00 MPH OSAGE OK MESONET

0540 PM HAIL 4 W SAPULPA 36.00N 96.19W
04/14/2011 E1.25 INCH CREEK OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAPULPA 36.00N 96.11W
04/14/2011 CREEK OK BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN ONTO POWER LINES.

0555 PM HAIL BARTLESVILLE 36.75N 95.98W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH WASHINGTON OK BROADCAST MEDIA

0558 PM HAIL BARTLESVILLE 36.75N 95.98W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH WASHINGTON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0606 PM HAIL BOLEY 35.49N 96.48W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH OKFUSKEE OK PUBLIC

0631 PM HAIL BEGGS 35.74N 96.07W
04/14/2011 E0.75 INCH OKMULGEE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

0636 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E OWASSO 36.27N 95.76W
04/14/2011 ROGERS OK PUBLIC

4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER...5 TO 6 FEET LONG TREE LIMB DOWN.

0639 PM HAIL 6 ENE OWASSO 36.30N 95.75W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH ROGERS OK PUBLIC

0658 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N CLAREMORE 36.34N 95.62W
04/14/2011 E65.00 MPH ROGERS OK AMATEUR RADIO

WIND GUST ESTIMATED ABOUT 1 MILE NORTH OF ROGERS STATE
UNIVERSITY

0701 PM HAIL 2 NE SAVANNA 34.85N 95.82W
04/14/2011 E1.50 INCH PITTSBURG OK PUBLIC

REPORTED AT THE TOLL GATE

0725 PM HAIL KREBS 34.93N 95.72W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK AMATEUR RADIO

0739 PM HAIL COWETA 35.95N 95.65W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH WAGONER OK PUBLIC

0745 PM HAIL 5 ESE BROKEN ARROW 36.02N 95.71W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH WAGONER OK PUBLIC

0816 PM TSTM WND GST 9 W DUNBAR 34.46N 95.72W
04/14/2011 E85.00 MPH PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS ESTIMATED 85 MPH VICINITY OF TORNADO 5S DAISY ALONG
INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE

0816 PM HAIL 9 W DUNBAR 34.46N 95.72W
04/14/2011 E4.25 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

SOFTBALL AND BASEBALL HAIL REPORTED WITH TORNADO 5S DAISY
ALONG INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE

0816 PM TORNADO 9 W DUNBAR 34.46N 95.72W
04/14/2011 PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY REPORT. TORNADO 5S DAISY ALONG INDIAN NATION
TURNPIKE.

0822 PM HAIL 2 S AFTON 36.66N 94.96W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH DELAWARE OK AMATEUR RADIO

0824 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N WAGONER 36.00N 95.37W
04/14/2011 WAGONER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL BARNS AND BUILDINGS HAD SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
LOCATION APPROXIMATE.

0831 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W TALIHINA 34.75N 95.07W
04/14/2011 LATIMER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES AND TREES DOWNED ON WEST SIDE OF TOWN. OTHER
POSSIBLE DAMAGE BUT UNABLE TO SURVEY DUE TO DEBRIS.

0844 PM HAIL BRISTOW 35.83N 96.39W
04/14/2011 E0.75 INCH CREEK OK AMATEUR RADIO

0846 PM HAIL BRISTOW 35.83N 96.39W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH CREEK OK PUBLIC

0851 PM HAIL 2 NNW CLAYTON 34.62N 95.37W
04/14/2011 E4.25 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

SOFTBALL AND BASEBALL HAIL ON HIGHWAY 43 SOUTH SIDE OF
SARDIS LAKE.

0924 PM HAIL WISTER 34.97N 94.72W
04/14/2011 E1.75 INCH LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0924 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W HECTORVILLE 35.84N 96.00W
04/14/2011 M65.00 MPH OKMULGEE OK MESONET

0925 PM HAIL 1 SW GLENPOOL 35.95N 96.02W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH TULSA OK BROADCAST MEDIA

0930 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE WISTER 34.98N 94.68W
04/14/2011 M64.00 MPH LE FLORE OK MESONET

0935 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE WISTER 34.98N 94.68W
04/14/2011 E73.00 MPH LE FLORE OK MESONET

0938 PM TSTM WND DMG LEONARD 35.92N 95.80W
04/14/2011 TULSA OK BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE TO HOME

0940 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S POTEAU 35.04N 94.62W
04/14/2011 LE FLORE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS RECREATIONAL VEHICLES BLOWN OVER AND INTO
HIGHWAY.

0955 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E COWETA 35.95N 95.60W
04/14/2011 E65.00 MPH WAGONER OK PUBLIC

0956 PM HAIL 5 ESE BROKEN ARROW 36.02N 95.71W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH WAGONER OK PUBLIC

1016 PM HAIL MAZIE 36.11N 95.36W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH MAYES OK AMATEUR RADIO

DIME TO QUARTER HAIL

1020 PM TSTM WND GST MAZIE 36.11N 95.36W
04/14/2011 E65.00 MPH MAYES OK AMATEUR RADIO

1021 PM HAIL MAZIE 36.11N 95.36W
04/14/2011 E1.50 INCH MAYES OK AMATEUR RADIO

1027 PM HAIL OCTAVIA 34.53N 94.70W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH LE FLORE OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1035 PM HAIL MIDLAND 35.09N 94.35W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH SEBASTIAN AR EMERGENCY MNGR

1041 PM HAIL GREENWOOD 35.22N 94.26W
04/14/2011 E0.75 INCH SEBASTIAN AR PUBLIC

1045 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N DYER 35.52N 94.14W
04/14/2011 CRAWFORD AR EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREES ACROSS RIDGE ROAD NORTH OF DYER

1047 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE HUNTINGTON 35.09N 94.25W
04/14/2011 E60.00 MPH SEBASTIAN AR EMERGENCY MNGR

1048 PM HAIL 1 NE HUNTINGTON 35.09N 94.25W
04/14/2011 E1.00 INCH SEBASTIAN AR EMERGENCY MNGR

1110 PM TSTM WND DMG BRANCH 35.31N 93.95W
04/14/2011 FRANKLIN AR AMATEUR RADIO

MOBILE HOME ROLLED AT HIGHWAYS 22 AND 41

I can understand your interest and curiousity but that's not a good idea. Besides being dangerous, gawkers cause problems for emergency vehicles and emgergency workers.

I realize this. Although I work in the sciences, it's not meteorology. I've been fascinated with tornadoes since March of 1976 when my little town got hit by an F4. I was in history class and we got rushed into the hallway...the teacher had to come back and get me because I kept going to the window to watch it.

I do also realize they're not just an academic abstraction. That particular storm killed a long-time family friend who had apparently turned his hearing aid off so he could get an uninterrupted nap and never heard the warning.

So, while I may be a 'yahoo' who drives into tornadoes, it ain't because I saw some other 'yahoos' on the Discovery Channel. ;) (good natured poke at Venture).

I'm not exactly a chaser, either. I'm more of a 'greeter'. If they come where I am, I'll watch, follow and try to intercept/document. I'm not driving more than about 30 miles from home though. I'll enjoy vicariously on chatokc for the more far-flung storm events.

I do also realize they're not just an academic abstraction. That particular storm killed a long-time family friend who had apparently turned his hearing aid off so he could get an uninterrupted nap and never heard the warning.

And you know why I always have to stay up during all storms, no matter how late, as long they are capable of giving birth to tornadoes. Some are tame, and some are just downright vicious spawn of the devil.

And you know why I always have to stay up during all storms, no matter how late, as long they are capable of giving birth to tornadoes. Some are tame, and some are just downright vicious spawn of the devil.

Exactly. I stay up til they move out of the area.

I also figure I'm less likely to die in a tornado than a massive coronary from the NOAA radio by my bed going off at 2:30 AM.

Main story today is wind...

Looks to be about 15-20 mph east, 25-35 mph central, and 35-50 mph west. Humidity levels are up a bit 40% or higher outside of SW Oklahoma where they are only in the 20s and 30s.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.WIND.grad.png

This storm report caused by the wind today:

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW CANUTE 35.42N 99.30W
04/15/2011 WA****A OK PUBLIC

TWO TRACTOR TRAILERS OVERTURNED DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG
I40 WEST OF CANUTE. THREE INJURIES WERE REPORTED DUE TO
THE ACCIDENT.

Additional tornado report from yesterday...

0609 PM TORNADO 1 N OKFUSKEE 35.61N 96.23W
04/14/2011 OKFUSKEE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN WITH NO DAMAGE REPORTED

Other reports can be viewed at: http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=OK&prodtype=public

There are a ton for today based on the winds reaching severe levels in many areas out west (over 58 mph).

Main story today is wind...

Looks to be about 15-20 mph east, 25-35 mph central, and 35-50 mph west. Humidity levels are up a bit 40% or higher outside of SW Oklahoma where they are only in the 20s and 30s...

...anyone else catch the "peach shading" on KFOR's corner weather map last night? I called the studio to ask what the "peach shading that covers 1/3rd of our state, yet no clue what "peach" is". The gentleman that answered my called said, "I wondered the same thing. ***hollers at Mike Morgan*** Hey, Mike! What's the peach on the map?" Yup, high winds! (thanks for the legend, Mr. Morgan!) {:+)

Exactly. I stay up til they move out of the area.

I also figure I'm less likely to die in a tornado than a massive coronary from the NOAA radio by my bed going off at 2:30 AM.

People don't normally sleep with their hearing aid on. I used to always take them off, now I can't wear them anymore. I don't remember if I was able to hear the sirens while I slept, but I remember always staying up and watching the weather. Now I receive massive list of texts people alerting me when a tornado is nearby from all over, even people from a news station. Mom gets flooded with calls.

Venture, I am not a happy bunny with today being cold. :-(

Cameron, it is not Mike's fault. You'll need to gripe at the programming dept for that.

People don't normally sleep with their hearing aid on. I used to always take them off, now I can't wear them anymore. I don't remember if I was able to hear the sirens while I slept, but I remember always staying up and watching the weather. Now I receive massive list of texts people alerting me when a tornado is nearby from all over, even people from a news station. Mom gets flooded with calls.

Venture, I am not a happy bunny with today being cold. :-(

Cameron, it is not Mike's fault. You'll need to gripe at the programming dept for that.

...have also advocated a faster response time in obtaining and utilizing a CART provider to provide CC during severe weather events.

...have also advocated a faster response time in obtaining and utilizing a CART provider to provide CC during severe weather events.

Yeah, KFOR wait until a tornadic cell is within the metro before summoning one and it takes 30 minutes for it to start when they get the call in. KOCO is usually very fast. KWTV does a better job than KFOR. Mike Morgan still have not taken sign language classes to also use his hands while speaking to fill in the gap when CC is not available. Shows how much he cares, eh?

Reported the tornado in Stroud yesterday


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEO1f91eZNU

anyone see mike morgan's tie last night?

Surveys are starting to come in...

- 1 EF-3
- 5 EF-1
- 2 EF-0
- 14 Not Yet Rated/Surveyed in Oklahoma

---------

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...PRELIMINARY SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE APRIL 14 2011...TORNADOES...

SURVEY TEAMS WERE SENT OUT THIS MORNING TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY TORNADOES ON APRIL 14 2011. PRELIMINARILY... FIVE TORNADOES CAN BE CONFIRMED AS A RESULT OF THE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE INVESTIGATION STILL CONTINUES...DAMAGE FROM THREE OF THE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN GIVEN A PRELIMINARY EF-SCALE RATING.

REMEMBER THAT THIS INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FURTHER INVESTIGATION. SPECIAL THANKS GOES OUT TO THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS AND CHASERS THAT PROVIDED VALUABLE INFORMATION BOTH DURING AND AFTER THE EVENT.

...ATOKA COUNTY TORNADO...
...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TUSHKA AND ATOKA...
THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TUSHKA AND MOVED EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TOWN OF TUSHKA. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TOWARD THE CITY OF ATOKA. AS OF 4 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS STILL SURVEYING THIS DAMAGE PATH...AND DO NOT HAVE A DEFINITIVE END POINT FOR THIS TORNADO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE DAMAGE SEEN IN THE TOWN OF TUSHKA IS CONSISTENT WITH DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EF-3 TORNADO.

...MARSHALL INTO JOHNSTON COUNTY TORNADO...
THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MADILL IN MARSHALL COUNTY AND MOVED NORTHEAST. THE TORNADO CROSSED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE TEXOMA AND CONTINUED NORTHEAST UNTIL IT LIFTED APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MILBURN. BASED ON THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE SEEN...THIS TORNADO REACHED EF-1 INTENSITY.

...LINCOLN COUNTY TORNADO...
THIS TORNADO BRIEFLY DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF STROUD. LOCAL MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...STORM SPOTTER AND CHASER REPORTS SUGGEST THE TORNADO OCCURRED FOR LESS THAN 30 SECONDS...AND REMAINED OVER AN OPEN FIELD. WITH LITTLE TO NO DAMAGE REPORTED...THIS TORNADO WAS GIVEN AN EF-0 RATING.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
VERY LARGE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED WITH SEVERAL OF THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. WE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE...WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SIZES OVER GOLF BALL SIZE. SOME DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO AUTOMOBILES...WITH MANY LOSING THEIR WINDSHIELDS.

-----------------------

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS ONGOING FOR 14 APRIL 2011 EVENT...
...5 TORNADOES CONFIRMED AT THIS TIME...

TWO TEAMS OF METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA ARE CURRENTLY SURVEYING REPORTS OF STORM DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES FROM THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON 14 APRIL 2011 THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

ONE OF THE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS HAS CONFIRMED: TWO TORNADOES IN LE FLORE COUNTY SOUTH OF POTEAU. ONE TORNADO WAS CYCLONIC AND ONE WAS ANTICYCLONIC. BOTH TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RATED AS EF1.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM HAS ANALYZED THE DATA COLLECTED IN THE FIELD.

THE SECOND DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONFIRMED THREE TORNADOES.
TORNADO NORTHEAST OF BURBANK RATED EF0
TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF HOMINY RATED EF1
TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF DEWEY RATED EF1
ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM HAS ANALYZED THE DATA COLLECTED IN THE FIELD.

REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGE ARE BEING INVESTIGATED AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS. THESE REPORTS OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN PRELIMINARY UNTIL A DAMAGE SURVEY HAS BEEN COMPLETED.

IN OKLAHOMA...
1. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF HOMINY...OSAGE COUNTY
2. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO NE OF BURBANK...OSAGE COUNTY
3. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF DEWEY...WASHINGTON/NOWATA COUNTY LINE
4. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO...POTEAU/WISTER/HOWE AREA...LE FLORE COUNTY
5. CONFIRMED EF1 ANTICYCLONIC TORNADO...POTEAU/WISTER/HOWE AREA...LE FLORE COUNTY
6. OCHELATA AREA...WASHINGTON COUNTY
7. WAGONER AREA...WAGONER COUNTY
8. EAST OF DAISY AREA...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
9. SOUTH OF DAISY AREA...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
10. OLETA/CORINNE/SOBOL AREA...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
11. YANUSH AREA...LATIMER COUNTY
12. WEST OF TALIHINA AREA...LATIMER COUNTY
13. CASTLE AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
14. WELTY AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
15. OKFUSKEE AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
16. EUCHA AREA...DELAWARE COUNTY
17. ALDERSON AREA...PITTSBURG COUNTY

IN ARKANSAS...
18. DYER AREA...CRAWFORD COUNTY
19. BRANCH AREA...FRANKLIN COUNTY


INFORMATION FROM THIS EVENT IS STILL CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE MODIFIED BASED ON ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE TO US. UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE DAMAGE SURVEYS CAN BE FOUND FROM THE NWS TULSA HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA AS WELL AS FROM FOLLOW UP PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION THAT COULD ENHANCE THE RECORD OF THIS EVENT SHOULD CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA AT 918-838-7838 DURING BUSINESS HOURS...OR SEND US AN E-MAIL AT SR-TSA.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

anyone see mike morgan's tie last night?

Why? Was he wearing a neon green one?!? lol

Why? Was he wearing a neon green one?!? lol

ha! no, it was a shiny red tie with some kind of rhinestone pattern on it. very bling-y. i think he was channeling porter wagoner!

Wondering if any of you were like me and kept glancing out at your fence each time it gusted up to 200 mph...Unreal yesterday

Wondering if any of you were like me and kept glancing out at your fence each time it gusted up to 200 mph...Unreal yesterday
I didn't have to keep looking. Part of mine went flying by my window. Luckily it was a quick fix - no posts broken.

I got on I-44 yesterday, and the wind whipped my little Honda Fit halfway into the next lane, and then it switched and sent me back into the right. Scared the ever-living bejezus out of me. It was 10 and 2 the whole way after that but I was fighting it the whole time I was driving west.

Looks like another chance of severe weather Tuesday, and another later in the week. We're finally getting into an active pattern.

Looks like another chance of severe weather Tuesday, and another later in the week. We're finally getting into an active pattern.

Looking at OKC proper Tuesday is not in play for us...however Monday possibly could be. Models aren't really lined up though. NAM is the most aggressive outlining a potential moderate severe weather day, but both GFS and UKMET have the dryline through the area very quickly again. Cap strength looks like it will be an issue with an average strength of 4.2 across all the models for the 0Z time frame on Monday evening. Wind profiles though a very favorable for rotating storms with a great/classic profile with back SE surface winds and winds turning westerly with height.

Tuesday looks like an Eastern OK play again. Next risk comes in on Thursday across most of Western & Central OK. This will spread into the overnight and first portion of Friday before the activity moves to the east. Thursday looks like we might have a chance for widespread moisture, but lets wait for it to actually show up before getting excited. Activity on Friday will move mostly east of I-35 from the way it looks now. After that, we may see risks increase again the following Tuesday (26th) continuing on the 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and May 1st.

The evening run of the GFS painted a pretty bad picture for rain. Thurs/Fri seem like our best shots for any precip. After that however, almost zero in the way of any rainfall through the first couple days of May. Not really good news considering we have maybe 2 months left of our "wet" season before things dry out even more. It very well may come down to waiting for a tropical system to move on shore along the TX gulf coast and move up over us.

Updated Storm Report Information...this is just for the Tulsa warning area.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-180100-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
610 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS ONGOING FOR 14 APRIL 2011 EVENT...
...13 TORNADOES CONFIRMED AT THIS TIME...

TWO TEAMS OF METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TULSA ARE CURRENTLY SURVEYING REPORTS OF STORM DAMAGE AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES FROM THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON 14 APRIL 2011.

MOST RECENT STORM SURVEY INFORMATION...
A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED SOUTH OF BRANCH IN FRANKLIN COUNTY
ARKANSAS. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED EF1.

STORM SURVEY INFORMATION UPDATED APRIL 16...
A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF BACHE IN EASTERN
PITTSBURGH COUNTY. THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN RATED EF1.

A SHORT TORNADO TRACK WAS FOUND NEAR JUMBO IN FAR WESTERN PUSHMATAHA
COUNTY. THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN RATED EF1.

ANOTHER SEPARATE TORNADO TRACK WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF DAISY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. THIS TRACK WAS ORIENTED TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED EF1.

A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF WAGONER IN
WAGONER COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED EF1.

A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED NEAR LAKE EACH IN DELAWARE COUNTY. THIS
TORNADO WAS RATED EF2 BASED ON DAMAGE TO SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES AND
SURROUNDING TREES.


STORM SURVEY INFORMATION UPDATED APRIL 15...

ONE OF THE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS HAS CONFIRMED TWO TORNADOES IN LE
FLORE COUNTY SOUTH OF POTEAU. ONE TORNADO WAS CYCLONIC AND ONE WAS
ANTICYCLONIC. BOTH TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RATED AS EF1. AN EF1 TORNADO
WAS CONFIRMED FROM APPROXIMATELY 4 WSW TO 0.5 W OF TALIHINA IN
LATIMER COUNTY. A SHORT TRACK EF0 TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED FROM 1.0
TO 1.5 W TO 1.0 NW OF YANUSH IN LATIMER COUNTY. SURVEY TEAM COULD
NOT CONFIRM A TORNADO IN THE ALETA/CORINNE/SOBOL AREA OF SOUTHERN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. DAMAGE THERE APPEARED TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A BOW
ECHO. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM HAS ANALYZED THE DATA COLLECTED IN THE FIELD.

THE SECOND DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONFIRMED THREE TORNADOES.
TORNADO NORTHEAST OF BURBANK RATED EF0
TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF HOMINY RATED EF1
TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF DEWEY RATED EF1
ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONCE THE
SURVEY TEAM HAS ANALYZED THE DATA COLLECTED IN THE FIELD.

REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGE ARE BEING INVESTIGATED
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS. THESE REPORTS OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
PRELIMINARY UNTIL A DAMAGE SURVEY HAS BEEN COMPLETED.


SUMMARY OF CURRENT AND POTENTIAL TORNADO TRACK INFORMATION...

IN OKLAHOMA...
1. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF HOMINY...OSAGE COUNTY
2. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO NE OF BURBANK...OSAGE COUNTY
3. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF DEWEY...WASHINGTON/NOWATA
COUNTY LINE
4. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO...POTEAU/WISTER/HOWE AREA...LE
FLORE COUNTY
5. CONFIRMED EF1 ANTICYCLONIC TORNADO...POTEAU/WISTER/HOWE
AREA...LE FLORE COUNTY
6. OCHELATA AREA...WASHINGTON COUNTY
7. CONFIRMED EF1 NORTHWEST OF WAGONER...WAGONER COUNTY
8. CONFIRMED EF1 SOUTH TO ENE OF DAISY...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
9. CONFIRMED EF1 NEAR JUMBO...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
10. ALETA/CORINNE/SOBOL AREA...PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. NO TORNADO
CONFIRMED.
11. CONFIRMED EF0 TORNADO...YANUSH AREA...LATIMER COUNTY
12. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO...TALIHINA AREA...LATIMER COUNTY
13. CASTLE AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
14. WELTY AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
15. OKFUSKEE AREA...OKFUSKEE COUNTY
16. CONFIRMED EF2 LACK EACH AREA...DELAWARE COUNTY
17. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO SOUTH OF BACHE...PITTSBURG COUNTY

IN ARKANSAS...
18. DYER AREA...CRAWFORD COUNTY
19. CONFIRMED EF1 TORNADO...BRANCH AREA...FRANKLIN COUNTY


INFORMATION FROM THIS EVENT IS STILL CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND
WILL BE MODIFIED BASED ON ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT MAY BECOME
AVAILABLE. UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE DAMAGE SURVEYS CAN BE FOUND
FROM THE NWS TULSA HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA AS WELL AS FROM
FOLLOW UP PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION THAT COULD ENHANCE THE RECORD OF THIS
EVENT SHOULD CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA
AT 918-838-7838 DURING BUSINESS HOURS...OR SEND US AN E-MAIL AT
SR-TSA.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

It looks like storms will be forming in the same locations Tuesday, maybe further east along the 75 corridor. It will be interesting to see how everything looks in the morning to see if storms develop further to the west. The moderate risk area is further north and east with a slight risk for eastern OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/04/18/is-the-rain-returning-2/

Is everyone ready to be soaked? :-)

Going to do a quick run down based on the GFS run this evening. It looks like we are finally going to transition into Spring Time with extended periods of storm chances and yes...severe weather nearly every day we have a chance for storms. It looks like the pattern may start to chance in Early May. So hopefully...we get a decent amount of water finally.

Tues 4/19 - Ahead of the dryline tomorrow instability will be very high, but it appears it will get quickly over taken by the front by the early afternoon. Best chance for any severe weather looks confined to far eastern and southeast OK. There is a slight risk east of I-35 tomorrow with a moderate risk over far eastern OK, but I wouldn't be shocked to see that moved even more E or SE based on the front's speed.

Weds 4/20 - Some remnant rain in SE OK, otherwise dry.

Thurs 4/21 - Front will be retreating across OK as a warm front. Instability will be increasing through he day. Severe risk will be mainly south of I-40, but rain chances will increase state wide...beginning in the morning.

Fri 4/22 - Scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Instability will increase along the I-44 corridor with severe storms possible.

Sat 4/23 - Again a chance for storms across the state. Severe weather possible most areas except NW OK.

Sun 4/24 - Same thing. Chance of storms. Severe weather is possible but not as high as previous days. GFS is pinpointing significant rainfall in Central OK through the first half of the day. However, I'm a bit skeptic on seeing 3 to 6 inches of rain unless we get a cluster of storms that just park it. Anything that extreme though would likely cause flash flooding with our concrete soil.

Mon 4/25 - Chance for more widespread significant rain fall over 1" early in the day, then more concentrated in the SE 1/3rd of OK by evening. Severe risk is slight with CAPE not really forecast to be all that great.

Tue 4/26 - Looks mostly dry but very unstable. Could see some scattered storms.

Weds 4/27 - Storms east of I-35 early, otherwise fairly dry. Dryline in the state, but instability pretty low.

Thur 4/28 - Dry.

Fri 4/29 - No widespread areas of precip forecast, but instability will be high ahead of a dryline across most of OK except for far western sections.

Sat 4/30 - Dryline remains in play...sitting mostly over western OK. Instability is forecast to very high with scattered/isolated storms. Severe looks possible.

Sun 5/1 - Dryline backs into the panhandle some. Again, very high to extreme instability. Scattered/isolated storms. Yup...its May.

Mon 5/2 - Dryline moves some, but not much back into OK. Again, high to extreme instability with scattered storms. Severe chances as expected this time of year.

Tue 5/3 - A day a lot of people get nervous on, but doesn't seem as bad as the previous days. Some widespread areas of rain expected and moderate to high instability will provide risk for some severe.

Wed 5/4 - Widespread rain early then getting more isolated late. Front comes through from the NW and starts to clear things out. Severe weather doesn't look probably except for spill over from the 3rd.

Tue 5/3 - A day a lot of people get nervous on, but doesn't seem as bad as the previous days. Some widespread areas of rain expected and moderate to high instability will provide risk for some severe.

I agree. Each year on that date, basically just about everyone is usually expecting a monster hurling down their path.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0471.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AR / ERN OK / N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191840Z - 191945Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM
INITIATION IS FIRST EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
OK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR AND PERHAPS FAR NERN TX.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR JLN SWWD
NEAR ADM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE AUS AND
SAT VICINITY. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
EWD MOVING SURFACE FEATURES WITH MLCAPE ALREADY 3000-4000 J/KG /PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S/90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OK AND HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY GLANCE THE REGION AS FAR S
AS N-CNTRL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT WILL ENABLE THE CAP TO ERODE INITIALLY
ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR WHERE CU ARE ALREADY BECOMING AGITATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST
/N OF THE RED RIVER/. FARTHER S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE
BREACHED LOCALLY--RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY/S...UPDRAFTS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THE FAVORED STORM MODE. A
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...IN ADDITION TO
DMGG WINDS AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS
GREATEST GENERALLY OVER OK/AR/FAR NERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0155_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...

DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED AT AN ANGLE TO THE FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELD. VERY LARGE HAIL /I.E. GREATER THAN BASEBALL SIZE/ WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

Have been watching this storm and it has been showing signs of rotation for about 30 minutes and now in an area already suffering...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
331 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ATOKA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ATOKA...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ATOKA RESERVOIR...ATOKA...DAISY...
NORTHERN MCGEE CREEK LAKE...REDDEN AND STRINGTOWN.

Comparing tonight GFS to last nights does dry things out long term again and not as much rain in the forecast. However, these flop around all the time so here is just a quick update.

4/20 - Chance of showers/storms far SE OK.
4/21 - Chance of showers/storms statewide, maybe some strong storms in south central OK mainly south of I-40.
4/22 - Risk of severe weather roughly east of a line from Altus to Weatherford to Ponca City. Looks like highest probably of any rotating storms will be I-40 and north.
4/23 - Storm chances move southeast of a line from Wichita Falls to Ada to Muskogee...give or take.
4/24 - Looks like a fairly widespread chance area of showers/storms. Some will be severe. North Central OK may be the one area that doesn't see much.
4/25 - Chance of storms shifts east of I-35 and wrapping around back into North Central OK.
4/26 to 4/29 - Looks Dry.
4/30 - Chance of storms central to north central OK.
5/1 - Chance of storms east of I-35.
5/2 to 5/5 - Looks dry as well.

The NWS is forcasting 3-4 inches or rain for south central Oklahoma within the next five days.

The NWS is forcasting 3-4 inches or rain for south central Oklahoma within the next five days.

Hopefully that happens.

It will suck on Easter as we have around 20 folks coming over but we cannot be choosy at this point

It will suck on Easter as we have around 20 folks coming over but we cannot be choosy at this point

Make plans for indoor event.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/timeline.jpg

Thursday, April 21
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

They updated their outlook graphics. You can now trigger interstates, cities, and counties which is a nice feature. Slight risk color was changed from green to yellow.

With that graphic above saying Day 2, I assume that is for tomorrow, counting today as 1.

Oh, venture, where are you?

Im doing a rain dance right now.. It better rain right over my house..

Mmmk. Going to try to get a bit more specific with this forecast...but also have 6 days I'm going to cover. I won't go past Monday at this point since it seems to dry out. Side note right away, there is some disagreement between GFS and NAM throughout this forecast period, for the most part i've settled on a blend of the two, but it appears ECMWF is the favored model right now...but its access is restricted from the general public.

Today - 4/20/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042011.PNG)

The easy day out of everything. Front is starting to hang up in Texas. Southeast OK may see some showers this afternoon/evening...mainly east of an Ardmore/Ada/Muskogee line. Other than that a pretty cool and enjoyable day.



Thursday - 4/21/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042111.PNG")

Severe risk will increase as the front moves back north as the day goes by. Dryline will be established out in the panhandles, but may not be a major player. This looks to be a fairly widely scattered setup where not everyone will get rain, but it can happen nearly anywhere in the state. Most of the storms should be elevated and be mostly heavy rain and severe hail producers.

Generalized rainfall amounts from 0.10 to 0.25".

Additional details in the SPC DY2 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)...


WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS WRN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION ATOP COOLER
RETREATING SFC ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...BROAD
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INDUCE MOISTENING THROUGH
ASCENT/ADVECTION NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WELL ESTABLISHED. DESPITE THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION WILL
LIKELY PROVE AN IMPEDIMENT TO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. FOR THIS REASON IT
APPEARS THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE
CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ROOTED AOA 850MB WITHIN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE. GIVEN
THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE NOCTURNAL PEAK IN
LLJ. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

Friday - 4/22/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042211.PNG")

Friday could be more elevated severe weather day. I've added an "enhanced" area ahead of the cold front and dryline. Storms appear as they will fire along of the boundaries early in the afternoon, especially in SW OK. Storms will move to the ENE or East along the boundaries through the day. After dark additional showers and storms are likely to develop across southern sections and over most of Northern Oklahoma behind the front. Setup appears favorable for rotating storms with large hail and tornadoes. However, details can change a lot just 12 hours before...so don't get hung up too much. Low level surface winds don't appear to be all that strong, so that may limit the tornado threat some.

Generalized rainfall amounts from 0.5 to 1.0" depending on storm locations.

Additional details in the SPC DY3 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)...


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS...

AT LEAST MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT POLAR JET
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE/POTENTIALLY DEEPEN NORTHEASTWARD
FROM KS EARLY FRIDAY TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/FAR WESTERN OK.

INITIALLY...AT THE TERMINUS OF A STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET...ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS TOWARD THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE EXACT IMPACTS OF THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION
ARE UNCERTAIN...AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD EFFECTIVELY IMPEDE THE DEGREE
OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT...AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO RETURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT.

AS THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MO/PERHAPS WESTERN IL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO OK NEAR/EAST OF AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS WESTERN OK. GIVEN MODERATELY
STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALOFT /40-55 KT AROUND 500 MB/ COLOCATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE/ADJACENT MOIST AXIS...INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVING LINEAR CLUSTERS /DURING THE EVENING/ WILL
POSE AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX...OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS /HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT/ MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

Saturday - 4/23/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042311.PNG")

Front will continue to move to the southeast some but stall out...again. Severe threat doesn't look very high, but a condition thread with instability still in the moderate to high categories. Best chance of storms appear to be south and east of I-44, but rain possible (maybe even likely) statewide.

Generalized rainfall amounts from 0.5 to 1.0" depending on storm locations, especially along I-44 corridor.

Sunday - 4/24/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042411.PNG")

Not a major day, most just wet with some isolated storms around. Best areas appear south of I-44 and out in the panhandles where instability will be best. Severe threat looks pretty low and marginal though.

Generalized rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches along I-44...lower towards the SE higher in the NE where amounts could hit 3 inches.

Monday - 4/25/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042511.PNG")

System will start to move out over Oklahoma. Low with a dryline extending south should be in Northern OK with a cold front back in the panhandles (also stretching up into Kansas to another low). Risk of severe weather looks probably ahead of the dryline and near the low pressure center.

Rainfall amounts light west (under 0.25"), around 0.25 to a half inch central and up to an inch east.

Forecast for the 22nd is exactly what I was hoping not to see. Flying in (and out) that day and arriving back in the early afternoon.

Chat room is up for the duration of the severe weather now. For those that are regulars, if you want to send me a private message on the forum here with your email address...I'll send you an invite email for the chat room. This will contain a link to keep you from having to get cleared by a moderator to chat.

Severe risk for hail storms increasing through the night...

...OVERNIGHT/MORNING -- SRN PLAINS TO AR...
TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS N TX...OK AND/OR AR IN BROAD
REGIME OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WAA AND RELATED LLJ STRENGTHEN
AFTER 03Z. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER AIR...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT...WILL
YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A
FEW BETTER-ORGANIZED TSTMS TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1036 pm cdt wed apr 20 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Carter county in southern oklahoma...
Northwestern love county in southern oklahoma...
Central murray county in southern oklahoma...

* until 1115 pm cdt

* at 1036 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles south of wilson...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...

* locations in the warning include ardmore...courtney...gene autry...
Lone grove...milo...northwestern lake murray...rubottom...springer
and wilson.

Interesting. Prayers answered. Now the wrath of Mother Nature (or God, depending on your belief).

Tomorrow forecast looks pretty spot on to earlier.

Thursday - 4/21/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042111.PNG)

Severe risk pretty much state wide for severe hail. Largest hail possibilities appear to be down along the Red River.

Additional details in the SPC DY1 Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)...


...PORTIONS OK/KS/MO/AR THROUGHOUT PERIOD...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AT START OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS ERN
OK/WRN AR...INVOF NWD-MOVING/850-800 MB LAYER WARM FRONT WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC IS OCCURRING IN REGIME OF INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL
FROM BEST-ORGANIZED TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER SRN
OZARKS REGION THROUGH MID-DAY AND WEAKEN. SECOND ROUND OF ELEVATED
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AFTER ABOUT 22/06Z...OVER PORTIONS
WRN/NWRN OZARKS REGION NWD ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS. SIMILAR VALUES OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED AS WITH EARLIER CONVECTION FARTHER S. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON SPATIAL SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPORALLY DISTINCT REGIMES
THAT HAIL OUTLOOK AREAS ARE COMBINED ATTM.

Friday - 4/22/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042211.PNG)

GFS and NAM continue to disagree. They are roughly 75 miles or so apart from each other (NAM being the further east solution). NAM dries most of Oklahoma out overnight so going into the day, there shouldn't be much ongoing precip. GFS on the other hand continues to indicate ongoing activity across most of Central and Eastern OK. With severe development starting around 1PM in SW OK moving up I-44. Additional activity should be ongoing along I-44 by 7PM from Chickasha to the OK/MO border. The big issue is going to be how fast does the cold front move in. NAM has it passing central OK by early afternoon where as the GFS has the cold front hanging up just north of I-40 and keeping the dryline back along I-44. So if we would go by the GFS for this, we would easily be looking at a Moderate Risk situation. Supercell potential will be north of 90% with very favorable winds for rotating storms and tornadoes. Conditions remain favorable after dark as well and GFS maintains developments of strong storms in Central Oklahoma.

SPC Day 2 Outlook is not available yet as of this writing.

Will post more in a few on the rest of the weekend.

Saturday - 4/23/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042311.PNG)

Storm chances continue as the front lingers in the state. Again, GFS and NAM are split on the positioning of the boundaries. NAM dries out Oklahoma by later afternoon/early evening except for far SE OK. However it does paint a general area of rain over most of OK SE of I-44. GFS is slightly different. It does move the front into SE OK, but not all the way through. It also keeps areas along and southeast of I-44 wet for most of the day. By midnight, rainfall rates begin to increase as moisture starts to increase again as the front begins to move back north.

The Day 3 outlook is not issues yet, but will post once it comes out.

Sunday - 4/24/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042311.PNG)

NAM doesn't go that far into Sunday but it does develop rain and some storms across the southern half of Oklahoma through mid morning. GFS has the full day covered so that is the basis for this discussion. The boundary will be moving NW through the state but is forecast to washout by early afternoon. A dryline will sharpen in the TX panhandle as the storm system begins to mature in the Rockies. Strong SE winds will open up the Gulf right back into Oklahoma. Instability will increase through the day and get to moderate/high levels by evening. Forecast soundings do indicate the probability that storms that do form will likely go severe with large hail. Tornadic potential will also be there. Most precip looks like it will be along and north of I-44.

Saturday - 4/24/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042411.PNG)

Storm chances continue as the front lingers in the state. Again, GFS and NAM are split on the positioning of the boundaries. NAM dries out Oklahoma by later afternoon/early evening except for far SE OK. However it does paint a general area of rain over most of OK SE of I-44. GFS is slightly different. It does move the front into SE OK, but not all the way through. It also keeps areas along and southeast of I-44 wet for most of the day. By midnight, rainfall rates begin to increase as moisture starts to increase again as the front begins to move back north.

The Day 3 outlook is not issues yet, but will post once it comes out.

Monday - 4/25/11 - Outlook Map (http://www.chatokc.com/svroutlook/042511.PNG)

Severe risk will continue into Monday. The dryline will be racing east across the state and move through central OK by early evening. Storms will be likely ahead of the front. The cold front extending from a strong low in Kansas will move through NW OK into central sections by evening. Additional strong to marginally severe storms will be possible along this boundary. Highest severe potential though will be in eastern OK.

Extended Outlook...

4/26 - Storm chances continue in SE OK and also NW OK.
4/27 - Chance of storms early in Western OK & SE OK then dry.
4/30 - Chance of storms I-44 corridor and to the south.
5/3 - Chance of storms across most of OK.
5/4 - Chance of storms across most of OK. Severe possible.
5/5 - Chance of storms across most of OK.
5/6 - Chance of storms across most of OK. Severe possible.

Day 2 Discussion is now available...they have extended the enhanced risk area over most of Oklahoma from Lawton to Watonga and back to the NE.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO FRIDAY...AS AT LEAST MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT POLAR JET SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE/EVENTUALLY DEEPEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE ANCHORED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/FAR SOUTHWEST OK.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
INITIALLY...AT THE TERMINUS OF A STRONG/SPLIT AND GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD ON THE EDGE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING LOWER MO VALLEY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION CREATES A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON/EVENING WARM/MOIST SECTOR FOR AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA...AS THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY COULD EFFECTIVELY IMPEDE THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING/SURFACE BASED STABILIZATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. REGARDLESS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL OTHERWISE QUICKLY RETURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING MIDWEST SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT.

THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/DOWNSTATE IL...AND STRONGER 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS OK/FAR NORTH TX. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN HALVES OF MO INTO WESTERN IL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/FAR NORTHWEST AR...AND OK NEAR/NORTHEAST OF AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT.

GIVEN STRONG CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW ALOFT /45-60 KT AROUND 500 MB/ COLOCATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE/ADJACENT MOIST SECTOR...INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS ARE PROBABLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO INTO DOWNSTATE IL FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF WHAT MAY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OK AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY EVENING...A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH UPSCALE GROWING QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FRONTAL ZONE...OTHER TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO OK AMID A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Friday.jpg?timestamp=1303375212

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Rainfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1303371334

Quick update on today and tomorrow.

Today looks to be what we see right now. Isolated areas of showers/storms and cool weather. Some will produce severe criteria hail mainly in South Central and Northeast Oklahoma. Activity will quickly move east by this evening and should have a relatively dry night. GFS does indicate some chance for precip overnight into early tomorrow, so we'll have to see.

As far as Friday, NAM has dramatically shifted west to within 20 miles of the GFS solution now (unlike yesterday where they were 75-100 miles apart). Activity initiation in Oklahoma will be tricky still. NAM tends to keep it mostly to the east and Northeast until early evening. GFS has a few chances in SW OK by early afternoon. They both come together showing a line of convection forming right over the I-44 corridor by early evening 5-7PM time frame. Evaluating the forecast soundings for KOKC for the 36 hr time frame (00Z Friday/7PM Thurs) from the NAM, GFS, and UKMET...indications are for a high end slight risk (which is what SPC has us in now) with just a hair shy of being upgraded to a moderate risk.

Things that are still not perfect for storms. Relative humidity is forecast to be fairly low upstairs, but this shouldn't be an issue. Instability is really going to depend on where things setup. If things shift west just 20-30 miles that will mean a lot for the Metro area. CAP strength is forecast to be fairly strong, but not unbreakable at all. This could put a lid on convection until the front gets closer. Most shear values look good for rotating storms, but not all the measurements are in line.

Tomorrow still appears to be a day to watch however and don't be shocked if things get upgraded to a moderate risk by SPC some where in the state.

I just want a bit of rain.... :-/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0175_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SSWLY LLJ WHICH HAS STRENGTHENING TO 30-40
KT. THIS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY
BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE ATOP
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BELOW MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM
IS YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

So the rain they predicted we would get today missed us again here in central okla?

High and Dry. High and Dry