It appears initial storm development is starting in NW OK. Indications on radar of a new cell developing 8 mi to the NE of Buffalo. It will be crossing into Kansas shortly however.

Initial cell is struggling to really get established, it is already in KS though. Now watching additional CU development south through Roger Mills County.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0391.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS/NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100028Z - 100200Z

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS AIDED RECENT
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN KS. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
ROUGHLY .75 INCHES NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THESE UPDRAFTS MAY LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY DO NOT SUGGEST A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

Bringing the chat room up, we have new development in SW Oklahoma now moving into Wash ita County.

I've forgotten what rain smells like!!!

Well, its morning and I wonder just how toasted Oklahoma will be today.

Dryline is racing east this morning and fire danger will start climbing (rapidly) once it passes.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.WIND.grad.png

Good morning, Humidity, sorry to see you go so quickly. Come back soon!

Really lucked out on the winds not transporting to the surface today. New Tornado Watch out for the east though...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0124_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF VICHY
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG DRY
LINE FROM SW MO SSW INTO S CNTRL OK...AS UVV BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH
APPROACH OF W TX UPR IMPULSE. AMPLE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO
BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL GIVEN 40+ KT 850-700 MB FLOW
BENEATH 70+ KT 500 MB WIND IN ENTRANCE REGION OF DEVELOPING UPR LVL
JET STREAK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

How can they be so wrong about the winds? Glad we didn't get them, but come on. The forecast of 50-60 mph gusts was ridiculous!

How can they be so wrong about the winds? Glad we didn't get them, but come on. The forecast of 50-60 mph gusts was ridiculous!

Its only wind right? How hard can they be to forecast, I know. Anywho...the strong winds did develop, but we didn't see any gusts in Oklahoma up to 60 mph. To make it as plain to understand as possible, winds just behind the dryline were very light at the surface but near 40 mph or more just above the surface. However you need to have proper mixing take place to transport those winds to the surface, that didn't happen here in Central OK as much as what was expected. Wind gusts here were mainly 30 to 40 mph, whereas NW OK was 40 to 51 mph. Had things turned over in the atmosphere as expected behind the passing dryline and pacific front, the winds would have been transported to the surface and the 50-60mph forecast verified. Fortunately that didn't occur and the high winds remained above the surface, but still there based on profiler reports and soundings.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.gust.gif

Continuing to see additional high based development behind the dryline and ahead of the incoming cold front (which is just NW of the Metro at this time). Activity is moving generally to the NE and there is now a chance for some storms to pass over the southern sections of the Metro area. Currently Purcell is having a storm move over that developed in the last 20 minutes. More rain and storms are just to the South and SE of Lawton. I would expect once the cold front passes, most of the precip will be pushed off with it...but hopefully at least some areas will get some rain.

The weather will always be unpredictable. I'd say the best term that I can think of when forecasting is by "estimating" of what is to come. I can't think of another word right now. We're humans and computers are not as perfect as we think they are. A lot of factors within the weather are always constantly changing hour by hour.

Significant severe weather possible in Eastern OK Thursday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY IN 1ST PARAGRAPH

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A NEGATIVE TILT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 90 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WITH THE EXIT REGION SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES CREATING A
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD
WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
ERN OK AND ERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIMINISH A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 21Z WITH STORMS INITIATING JUST TO
THE EAST OF A DRYLINE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WHERE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND SERN
KS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN
THE 400 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...SUPPORTING A
TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO -16 C SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...>= 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS CITY WHERE THE NAM SHOWS A 995
MB SFC LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BACKED SELY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT IN NE KS AND WRN MO WHERE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALSO MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE OZARKS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE EVENING BUT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS AN MCS OR
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY.

..BROYLES.. 04/12/2011

David, has the OKC Zoo ever been ravaged by a tornado in the past?

Potential Severe Weather Outbreak looks possible for Thursday for parts of the state from I-35 to east.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS...ERN OK...FAR SW MO AND FAR NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS CNTRL KS AT MIDDAY MOVING NWD INTO NEB. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD FIRST OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SEWD INTO CNTRL TO ERN KS AND ECNTRL OK ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE JUST TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z FRIDAY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG IN ECNTRL KS TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN ECNTRL OK. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 65 KT WILL CREATE A THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA IN SE KS...ERN OK...FAR NW AR AND FAR SW MO. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN OK FROM 00Z TO 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 350 TO 450 M2/S2 WHICH WILL MAKE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON MOISTURE RETURN AND STORM MODE. SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD OF THE TENDENCY FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z TO 00Z SHOW A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SWD EXTENT IN NE TX. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS IN THE OZARKS AND DRIVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS SCNTRL MO AND ECNTRL AR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011

Taking a look at this evening's model runs for central Oklahoma, it all depends on where the dryline is when storms start. If the dryline slows down, severe threat will move west more...speeds up, further east. Right now initiation per the GFS model has storms starting almost right on I-35 from border to border. NAM doesn't initiate precip until well after 6PM about 30-50 miles east of I-35. GEM model moves the dryline almost to Tulsa-McAlester line by 5-7PM time frame, well faster than the other two. UK-MET is a bit slower and has precip chances back west of I-35 a bit.

So there is potential we could see some storms here in Central sections, but chances aren't very high right now.

Outlook Update...Next Storm chances...
- Monday 4/18: Mostly Northern and Eastern Oklahoma.
- Tuesday 4/19: Rain chance East.
- Thursday 4/21: Storm chance most of the state except NW.
- Friday 4/22: Significant rain possible Eastern 2/3rds of OK.
- Monday 4/25: Storms Eastern 2/3rds of OK.
- Thursday 4/28: Chance of rain Northern & Eastern OK.

What do YOU think will happen with our precious dryline?

What do YOU think will happen with our precious dryline?

Ask me Thursday afternoon. :-) I'm not going to touch dryline placement this far out since it all depends on how fast it mixes east.

Extreme Fire Danger returns Thursday...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011

...EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STRONG WINDS... LOW HUMIDITIES... AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WEST
OF THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MAKING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS
OF ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT.

OKZ009-010-014>018-021>024-027-033>039-044-045-TXZ083>090-131630-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0020.110414T1500Z-110415T0200Z/
ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-BECKHAM-
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-GRADY-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-COTTON-JEFFERSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
327 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

Please tell me rain is in the near future.... please..

When's the last time we had any rain?

I think the last time we had a significant amount of rain was last July.

I think the last time we had a significant amount of rain was last July.

Hence the reason nearly the entire state is in an extreme drought. At this point we need a really wet late spring and likely a couple tropical systems moving over the state from the Gulf to get caught up.

Remember we were in nearly the same dire situation in 2005-06 and 2007 was a record-breaking year for rainfall ending the drought. Unfortunately I think we are going to see more and more such dry and wet cycles in this part of the country.

Updated Day 2 Outlook continues to indicate a potential severe weather outbreak tomorrow from I-35 and to the east.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN KS/ERN OK AND EXTREME NWRN
AR/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN-CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK AND EXTREME NWRN AR/SWRN
MO--THIS THREAT WILL INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
TORNADOES...

...SRN-CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS/MID MO VALLEY...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD AND CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF INVOF OK/KS BORDER BY
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY SWD TO THE
ARKLATEX CREATING WIND PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS KS/MO BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. RAPID
MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS ALONG AND E OF
A N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK
AND S-CNTRL KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE IN PART TO
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS ALOFT /-16 TO -20 DEG C AT H5/ WILL OVERSPREAD
NRN OK WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX
NWD THROUGH OK/SERN KS...ARCING NWWD TO THE N OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE LOWER 60S DEG F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT AS FAR N AS NERN OK. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
CNTRL-ERN KS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST NEAR THE
LOW AND THEN SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN SERN KS
INTO ERN OK. A NARROW TONGUE OF MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS
FAR N AS CNTRL KS AND STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES /YIELDING 500-1500
SBCAPE/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES IN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW N AND E OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE
INDICATE A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE
AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C PER KM/ OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR. A N-S BAND OF SCATTERED INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE E OFF THE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING AS LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED HODOGRAPHS /300-450 EFFECTIVE SRH/ WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADO/S...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS...WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
OZARKS AND ARKLATEX...MAINTAINING A SEVERE RISK AS THE UPPER PV
ANOMALY SURGES EWD INTO THE OZARKS. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL
CONSOLIDATE BASED ON THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS. THIS MAY ACT TO TEMPER TORNADO
POTENTIAL SOME BUT CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR
E AS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FARTHER S INTO
NERN TX...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLD AND BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS FORCED ASCENT ERODES REMAINING
CINH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO.

..SMITH.. 04/13/2011

Interesting how Mike Morgan on KFOR thinks he has it pinned down good enough as to rate the risk for severe weather on Thursday as HIGH from Enid to Stillwater, but only rates it slight for much of OKC.

Interesting how Mike Morgan on KFOR thinks he has it pinned down good enough as to rate the risk for severe weather on Thursday as HIGH from Enid to Stillwater, but only rates it slight for much of OKC.

Linda: Welcome to Oklahoma's News Channel 4 at 4:30. We begin the day with severe storms risk in the state with Mike Morgan.
Mike: AHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kevin: It's that bad, folks.

Interesting how Mike Morgan on KFOR thinks he has it pinned down good enough as to rate the risk for severe weather on Thursday as HIGH from Enid to Stillwater, but only rates it slight for much of OKC.

They need need to come up with their own severe weather classification system so people don't confuss it with the official NWS severe weather outlooks. The weather channel has the "TOR:CON Index".

Maybe the NWS will upgrade that area to high risk. We just won't know until tomorrow.

Oy. Anywho. Here we go...

So for OKC proper it comes down to dryline placement. NAM moves the dryline to essentially right on top of I-35 by 7PM. GFS has it further east by about 40 miles. Storms will fire along and ahead of the dryline and move to the east. There is also the possibility for the dryline to hang up somewhere over the metro. Forecast sounds show it passing OKC mid-afternoon, but start west (north) of Norman through early evening. We'll have have to wait and see, but where ever that dryline goes will play a huge part in weather Thursday.

Still plenty of variables in play tomorrow, so nothing is locked in. Don't be shocked to see the moderate risk brought back west very close to the metro area. However, the slight risk won't really go much further west than us as well. The potential is there for severe storms with very large hail and a few tornadoes. There are complications in the forecast now where an outbreak may not occur where it is expected. We very well could get a lot of rotating storms with larger hail north of I-40 and more tornadic activity south. We'll just have to wait and see though.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the Fire Weather Watch has been extended all the way east to I-35. Very dry air will be behind the dryline and fire danger will rise quickly as it passes. You could almost say tomorrow will be a story of fire and ice...just that the ice will be in the form of extremely painful "snowballs" raining down from the sky.

New outlook will be out soon, will post once it is published. I understand Morgan went with a "high" risk on his map for Thursday...I don't expect SPC to do a high risk until later in the day if things point to an extensive outbreak.

New Day 1 Discussion is out...

MODERATE RISK is along and to the east of a line from 10 mi E of Newkirk to Pawnee to Chandler to 8 mi E of Shawnee to Ada to Durant. Significant Tornadoes, Hail over 2 inches, and severe winds are probable in the moderate risk area.

SLIGHT RISK is along and to the east of a line from 13 mi E of Cherokee to Enid to 7 mi E of Kingfisher to Mustang to Blanchard to Dibble to Lindsay to Fox to Wilson to 6 mi W of Thackerville. All of the Oklahoma City Metro area, except for far western sections, are included in the SLIGHT RISK area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN EMERGING FROM SRN BRANCH AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH KS WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH KS INTO NWRN OK. ERN KS PORTION OF FRONT MAY LIFT NWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CNTRL KS. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX. PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH DRYLINE ACROSS ERN OK...THEN CONTINUE TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...KS...ERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

RICH GULF MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS SRN TX WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL TX. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL-NCNTRL TX AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND KS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL-ERN OK AND NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO SERN KS. EWD ADVECTING EML PLUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD 8-8.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX...OK AND KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETURN OF RICHER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...RESULTING IN AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM N-CNTRL TX...ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OR DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INITIAL SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET EXIT REGION INTERACTING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS...CNTRL-ECNTRL OK...AND POSSIBLY INTO N-CNTRL TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING WHILE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
..DIAL/COHEN.. 04/14/2011

Outlook Map:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

Tornado Probability Map:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

Morning Update...

Red Flag Warning has been issues for all counties in Central and Southwest Oklahoma that are roughly along/south of I-40 and along/west of I-35. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for Western OK. Fire Weather Watch remains for NW Oklahoma.

The dryline isn't firmly established yet, but should be setup with in the next couple of hours along the OK/TX border. Dewpoints in the OK Panhandle and Harper County are starting to decrease compared to areas just east of there.

Short term models continue to move the dryline into Central OK around 5-7PM this afternoon with storms develop along and ahead of it.

Looks like this will be the first severe weather outbreak of the 2011 season. It will be interesting to see where exactly the storms will develop. A little further west and storms could be affecting the OKC metro around rush hour..

New Day 1 outlook isn't really all that different. Slight risk shifted a hair further east and the moderate a hair further west.

MODERATE RISK is along and east of a line from 4 mi W of Ponca City to Stillwater to Shawnee to 6 W of Ada to 6 W of Durant.

SLIGHT RISK is along and east of a line from 15 mi W of Medord to Goldsby to 14 W of Ardmore.

Short Term model guidance this morning has storms starting between 4 and 6PM almost right along US 177 on the edge of the Moderate Risk area. Some models are further east, one was back to the west more. Things will continue to change through the day.

Dryline is establishing itself very quickly this morning roughly along or just west of US 183 in western Oklahoma. This morning it is moving about 20 mph to the east, but is isn't exactly a solid boundary yet. If it maintains the current speed it would be in OKC in about 5 hours. This would match up pretty good with what the HRRR 12Z run is projecting. It does however apply the breaks to the dryline as soon as it gets here and really tightens the gradient between dewpoints in the 20s and 30s in Canadian/Caddo counties and 60s in Cleveland/McClain/Oklahoma counties. So would not be shocked to see things start right on top of us and then move east. If the dryline hangs up to the west by 25-35 miles, that would raise the severe risk for the Metro Area considerably.

thank you venture for your updates, i have said it before and i will say it again, i look on this board for your post before i check the news weather web site..

thank you venture for your updates, i have said it before and i will say it again, i look on this board for your post before i check the news weather web site..

Appreciate the feedback. :-)

Update for the hour...low level moisture is pouring in right now, as you can see outside. Low stratus transporting moisture in from the gulf has raised dewpoints into the 60s now from Chandler to Norman to Duncan and to the south and east. Dryline continues to make progress east as it is now moving into Comanche, Caddo, Blaine, Major and Alfalfa counties. Short term models HRRR and RUC all indicate storms forming around 4PM, so no change there. Latest RUC slams the brakes on the dryline once it gets to I-35 or just slight east. So something to watch if it takes place sooner.

At this point the trend continues to have most (if not all) activity east of US 177.

I hope the dryline stalls west of the metro. We need rain!

rain we do need, just keep the tornados and hail away..

Update...

Dryline is continues east at about 16-20 mph. It currently is located roughly from Cherokee to Lahoma to just east of Kingfisher to east of El Reno to west of Minco and Chickasha to west of Rush Springs to west of Duncan down to Waurika.

Based on this and continued trends in the models, OKC proper should remain dry and outside of the severe risk. South sections of the Metro (Norman and south) could remain in it a bit longer. Cloud development is best along and east of I-35 at this time.

The other side to this is the rapidly increasing fire danger. Relative humidity is extremely low right now in SW Oklahoma...below 20%. These values will continue to follow the dryline and winds will be 30-40mph most of the afternoon and early evening. Extreme fire danger will spread into the Metro area as we get deeper into the afternoon.

Side note, the chat room at chatokc.com will be staffed for the rest of the day to track both severe weather and the fires.

Also HRRR model's 15Z run giving initiation around 4PM in the following scenario:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t5/2011041415/cref_t5sfc_f06.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t5&run_time=14+Apr+2011+-+15Z

Looking at some data it suggests the upper level winds are favorable for tornadoes in eastern OK into southeast KS. Venture, you seem to have access to much more data - where do you think the areas most favorable for tornado development will be? I think you are right that we will see cumulus development begin around 3-4 pm over the OKC metro and points north and south with movement to the east-northeast. Ponca City, Stillwater, Stroud, Seminole, etc. could be affected as these storms develop and quickly become severe and/or tornadic. Later around 5-6 the Tulsa metro could see severe weather too with everything becoming more linear into the late evening in far eastern OK moving into western AR.

Southeast OK and Northern Texas are really getting my attention right now with the latest HRRR. Northern OK looks more like a squall with embedded supercells. If I was chasing today, I would probably hang tight and plan to go south and east. Not to say there won't be any in NE OK or KS. There will, I just see a more classic arrangement of cells south. I won't be shocked to see the MDT risk get pushed closer to the Metroplex in the next update. Some think SPC will go High in the next update, but not sure if it really warrants that.

Southeast OK and Northern Texas are really getting my attention right now with the latest HRRR. Northern OK looks more like a squall with embedded supercells. If I was chasing today, I would probably hang tight and plan to go south and east. Not to say there won't be any in NE OK or KS. There will, I just see a more classic arrangement of cells south. I won't be shocked to see the MDT risk get pushed closer to the Metroplex in the next update. Some think SPC will go High in the next update, but not sure if it really warrants that.

Venture, In your comment about Metroplex are you referring to the OKC metro area and point north and south from there?

Nope, sorry about that. Metroplex = DFW. :-) I expect most of the central OKC metro area pulled out of the outlook at the next update. Dryline is just moving east too fast at this point - currently going through western Oklahoma county right now.

Good, I hate the thought of baseball hail hitting my car.

From Norman...

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
AROUND 1 PM..SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A DRYLINE EXTENDED
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTENSIFIES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 3
PM. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CUSHING TO ADA TO DURANT. BEHIND THE DRYLINE...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AND ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

New MCD - Chat is live at www.chatokc.com

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0425.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...ERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141833Z - 142100Z

EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE BEGINNING IN 20-22Z TIME FRAME...COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TO NEWD. DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME EXCEEDING 3 INCHES DIAMETER. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR TORNADOES AS TSTMS MATURE AND MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/HIGH-SRH AIR MASS...WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT.

18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE JUST E OF US-81 CORRIDOR IN OK THEN SWWD ACROSS JACK COUNTY TX...WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CU. DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/ADVECT EWD ACROSS I-35 FROM PVJ AREA NWD...BEFORE DECELERATING AROUND 23Z. TX DRYLINE SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE EWD TO JUST W OF DFW METROPLEX...NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF CONFLUENCE LINE THAT EXTENDS NNEWD FROM HILL COUNTRY. DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN FURTHER...GIVEN COMBINATION OF 1. CONTINUING MOST ADVECTION TO ITS E...
2. BACKING 850-MB WINDS EVIDENT PAST COUPLE HOURS IN CENTRAL OK VWP/PROFILER DATA...AND 3. GEOMETRY OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER KS/OK THAT MAY KEEP SLGT ELY COMPONENT TO SFC FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR IN CORRIDOR FROM OSAGE COUNTY SWD TO DUA AREA THROUGH 00Z.

EXPECT CONTINUED STG SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S F IN NRN OK TO MID 60S FROM ADM-ATOKA AREA SWD ACROSS RED RIVER...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS N TX AND SERN OK BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...AND 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR OK/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN...AS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH LOWERING OF 50-KT MIDLEVEL ISOTACH AT TCU PROFILER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-60 KT. HODOGRAPH SIZE...NOW INDICATING SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 1-3 KM AGL...WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER ERN OK...BECOMING POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PRODUCTION. STG ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS...RELATIVE TO DRYLINE...INDICATES STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION. COVERAGE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.

SRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE ARC REGIME -- SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 424 FOR DETAILS -- MAY BACKBUILD INTO PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK AFTER ABOUT 21Z AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/14/2011

PDS Tornado Watch incoming.

Looks like it might be safe to leave my top down on the jeep... not my top but the jeeps

Ww 135 tornado ok tx 141930z - 150300z
axis..80 statute miles east and west of line..
15nne bvo/bartlesville ok/ - 40sse gyi/sherman tx/ ..aviation coords.. 70nm e/w /36wsw osw - 37ene dfw/ hail surface and aloft..4 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

Sigh. I wish we'd get some rain...

Sigh. I wish we'd get some rain...

me too :(

Does the fact were so dry cause the dryline to move east faster?

Full Watch Discussion...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0135_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SHERMAN
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 134...

DISCUSSION...DRY LINE LOCATED VICINITY I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE AIR
MASS NOW VERY UNSTABLE EWD ACROSS OK. WITH LITTLE REMAINING
CINH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY OFF THE DRY LINE
AND MOVE THRU A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE RISK GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE STRONG UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADOES. DRY
LINE VERY LIKELY WILL MOVE LITTLE EWD FROM CURRENT POSITION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ON W EDGE OF WATCH INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

WT 0135 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

I am at work right now looking out my window ( im at the will rogers airport) im lookingsoutheast towards moore, the clouds are growing tall and long..i would say from southeast okc all the way to newcastle area

Switching to monitor the live chat. Radar is also active now as well.

Just as predicted storms firing on the dryline in Pawnee, Lincoln and Carter counties. Each one has a high probability of becoming severe very quickly.

Severe thunderstorm now 10 miles east-northest of Stillwater.

Jeesh.....Just missed the okc metro area again. Im going outside and do a raindance.