View Full Version : Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011



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michael
02-04-2011, 11:24 PM
true, nowhere to push the new snow to, that space is already occupied.

SoonerDave
02-04-2011, 11:28 PM
true, nowhere to push the new snow to, that space is already occupied.

What's really bad are the parking lots where the snow has been plowed to the corners of the driveways, blocking the view of oncoming traffic for exiting vehicles. That's how they plowed the lot at my office, and with an eight-foot-high pile of semi-gray snow right in my line of sight, pulling onto the main road is going to be tricky pending some (significant) melting. Another round and its going to get really interesting...

ou48A
02-04-2011, 11:28 PM
My experiences with blizzards while living on the high plains of western Kansas generally makes what we have in the OKC area look like child’s play. It was far more life threating. (Over the eves of your house.)

At least we don’t have tumble weeds packing the fences and acting like a snow fence. I hated winter out there.

ou48A
02-04-2011, 11:42 PM
Don't know....Imagine it will before long....On May 10th I was trying to eat french fries and cover (lingering) severe weather at exactly the same time and aspirated one of them. Sucked it right down.....Ha! Emily took over for 5 minutes so I could try to cough it back up....fortunately it did, but could sure feel the track it took in my right lung. My wife is a nurse, and she said it could have killed me. Joy.


Your wife is correct. I hope you are very well insured.
You might get hit by one of your trains:tiphat:

michael
02-04-2011, 11:44 PM
tell me how are the roads downtown?? ill be headed in tomorrow early afternoon. also anyone know how i-35 from stillwater to the city is?

ou48A
02-04-2011, 11:48 PM
true, nowhere to push the new snow to, that space is already occupied.

The lack of space is not necessarily the biggest problem.

When you have old snow plowed high beside a road and then with enough new wind driven snow the new drift tends to be roughly the same depth or just a little higher than the old pile beside the road.
I have seen some 6 to 7 foot piles of snow beside some of our roads.

adaniel
02-05-2011, 12:24 AM
tell me how are the roads downtown?? ill be headed in tomorrow early afternoon. also anyone know how i-35 from stillwater to the city is?

I live just north of downtown and for the most part roads are in very good condition. Most snow is trucked out of here which is nice.

I-35 (from what I've heard) is not so much, especially between Guthrie and Edmond. They were having a ton of wrecks tonight from people wiping out on black ice. If you are leaving in the afternoon hopefully it will be above freezing, but if not drive carefully.

Thunder
02-05-2011, 05:12 AM
Look at KOCO for example, how all the reporters, employees at the station, and weather people have time to post on the LiveWire in between camera times. It can be done. I have seen them talking on there just minutes, or even seconds, from going live on the air.

Mike, I grew up watching you and really like how you do things, especially when it comes to severe and major storms. You have that style that induce fear in people and with that tactic, I believe it really do work to grab their attention. Look at Gary England over at KWTV, he is too boring and puts us to sleep. Some people on here believe you go overboard, but I think you are just fine. There are still a lot of people who ignore weather situations, but at least you are working hard enough to get them to wake up and pay attention.

Only thing that I was sad about is that you just don't seem that social with viewers (or even fans). Lack of posts and updates on the weather blog there...no social interaction such as KOCO's LiveWire. Really wish you, the whole team and the station would start doing that. The guy that started the weather blog there (forgot his name) told me in private email that you wanted nothing to do with it. I dunno why... :-( Now he went back to family in another state. The weather blog is just dead. Oh, Jonathan Condor...something like that.

ou48A
02-05-2011, 10:09 AM
With enough wind this could be a crippling

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN AROUND TUE-WED HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
MORE TROUBLESOME. ARCTIC HIGH IS POISED OVER NW CANADA TO DELIVER
ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION BEGINNING TUE.
MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH.
PRECIP MAY START MON NIGHT N... BUT MORE LIKELY TO START TUE IN
MOST AREAS BEFORE PEAKING TUE NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF WED. THIS ONE
LIKELY TO FEATURE MORE WIND... MORE SNOW... AND COLDER AIR THAN
THE ONE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY HIGH-
IMPACT EVENT. LATEST ECMWF HAS SFC WINDS 15-25KT ALL AREAS AND
6-10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF OK WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY WED

SoonerDave
02-05-2011, 10:11 AM
Was just out driving around part of SW OKC, and there's (fortunately) quite a bit of melting on the main roads. The kicker, however, is that there are still icy, snow-packed corners at intersections that can sneak up and bite you if you're not careful. I caught myself trying to stop on southbound Santa Fe near 89th, but the car had other ideas....fortunately, was going slow enough such that the car finally stopped on its own, but it was illustrative of one of those situations where you just can't be too careful.

Be safe out there, everyone! Its getting better, but its not clear sailing just yet :) We're probably going to be dealing with melting and refreezing for some time over the next few days, I guess...

SkyWestOKC
02-05-2011, 10:22 AM
Luckily, the sun is out, which does dry things out, melting can occur if the sun is out even if temps are not above freezing. Something to do with the ice on a molecular level getting heated individually by the suns radiation, gaining enough energy to melt and evaporate. I'm no physicist though.

michael
02-05-2011, 10:23 AM
well, my sidewalk is melting so im figuring the roads...i-35 will be good in an hour or so for the trip down to okc.

jn1780
02-05-2011, 11:15 AM
Were finally above freezing.

venture
02-05-2011, 11:20 AM
Couple quick maps for today...

Snowfall forecast for Tonight into Sunday: http://goo.gl/maps/9JH9

We could probably see the system tonight start with rain before going to all snow. So depending on how much liquid we get, will greatly influence snow amounts. More rain, go with the low number. No rain, go with the high number and maybe add 1. Ideally we'll want to start all snow because liquid water on the ice and snow on the roads right now will not make things pleasant at all tonight for driving.

Feb 9-10th Storm: http://goo.gl/maps/qEjg

This one looks to put a decent dumping on the area. Light snow out west and gradually getting heavier towards the east. Still really far out and things will change a billion times between now and then, so you all know the drill.

Easy180
02-05-2011, 04:59 PM
Bring it on....Says Kansas

OKCMallen
02-06-2011, 12:31 PM
How we looking, Venture???

venture
02-06-2011, 12:57 PM
Still looking for a good snow storm mid-week, but models are still moving around a bit.

Easy180
02-06-2011, 03:27 PM
Venture..I see mention of just 3-6 inches now from Norman...Can you shed some light on what they are talking about?

venture
02-06-2011, 03:27 PM
Special weather statement
national weather service norman ok
323 pm cst sun feb 6 2011

okz004>048-050>052-txz083>090-062330-
harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
noble-roger mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
beckham-wa****a-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-
tillman-comanche-stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-cotton-
jefferson-carter-johnston-atoka-love-marshall-bryan-hardeman-
foard-wilbarger-wichita-knox-baylor-archer-clay-
including the cities of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
Ponca city...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ...
Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk city...sayre...cordell...
Anadarko...yukon...el reno...mustang...oklahoma city...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...f rederick...
Lawton...duncan...pauls valley...sulphur...ada...coalgate...
Walters...waurika...ardmore...tishomingo...atoka.. .marietta...
Madill...durant...quanah...chillicothe...crowell.. .vernon...
Wichita falls...munday...knox city...seymour...archer city...
Holliday...lakeside city...henrietta
323 pm cst sun feb 6 2011

...winter storm possible tuesday night and wednesday...

Another round of snow...wind...and bitter cold will affect all of
oklahoma and western north texas at the middle of this week. An
arctic cold front and upper level trough will slide through from
northwest to southeast. Snow and blowing snow will likely begin in
northwest oklahoma by tuesday afternoon...reaching western north
texas and central oklahoma tuesday night...and reaching southeast
oklahoma wednesday.

This storm should easily produce snow accumulation of at least 3-5
inches over a broad region...especially north of the red river. If
the storm moves slower or goes through any intensification...locally
higher snow amounts could occur...especially in central and northern
oklahoma. Regardless of exact snow amounts...wind speeds of 15 to 30
mph and higher gusts...will create blowing and drifting snow...which
will lower visibility and make it difficult for city and state crews
to keep roads clear. Very low wind chills...between zero and 15
below zero...will also develop during the storm.

The upper level trough was coming onshore in the pacific
northwest sunday afternoon...and this will allow forecasters to
better gauge its strength and track tonight. It is likely that a
winter storm watch will be posted for a large part of the norman
office forecast area by monday morning...and that the period of
hazardous winter weather will be from tuesday evening through
wednesday.

Leading up to the storm...the weather will be dry and partly sunny
on monday...allowing people to run errands and make preparations.
Conditions may deteriorate quickly...however...on tuesday...
Especially in northern and western oklahoma...where freezing drizzle
and light snow may begin during the day. People and organizations
may need to start preparing now for the possibility of a winter
storm that would create very hazardous outdoor conditions beginning
tuesday evening.

YO MUDA
02-06-2011, 05:01 PM
Well I for one love the snow. It was pretty and profitable for me. You see Im a gardner at the University of Oklahoma. I just got home. Been at work since 11 PM Monday. Schools been close since Tues and I have alot of overtime. Today the light rain was nice. I worked 10 hours in my little Kubota, with snow blade on front, pushing the 2 feet of snow the big snow plows piled up behind the students cars. The kids were greatful. On the subject of TV Weathermen and women, Mike, Emily and David are awesome. Bring on more next week. Im saving for a new motorcycle. LOL.

venture
02-06-2011, 05:52 PM
Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service norman ok
532 pm cst sun feb 6 2011

okz004>044-046-txz083>085-070745-
/o.new.koun.ws.a.0002.110209t0000z-110210t0000z/
harper-woods-alfalfa-grant-kay-ellis-woodward-major-garfield-
noble-roger mills-dewey-custer-blaine-kingfisher-logan-payne-
beckham-wa****a-caddo-canadian-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-
cleveland-pottawatomie-seminole-hughes-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-
tillman-comanche-stephens-garvin-murray-pontotoc-coal-cotton-
carter-hardeman-foard-wilbarger-
including the cities of...buffalo...alva...cherokee...medford...
Ponca city...arnett...woodward...fairview...enid...perry ...
Cheyenne...taloga...weatherford...clinton...watong a...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...elk city...sayre...cordell...
Anadarko...yukon...el reno...mustang...oklahoma city...chandler...
Chickasha...purcell...norman...moore...shawnee...s eminole...
Holdenville...hollis...mangum...hobart...altus...f rederick...
Lawton...duncan...pauls valley...sulphur...ada...coalgate...
Walters...ardmore...quanah...chillicothe...crowell ...vernon
532 pm cst sun feb 6 2011

...winter storm watch in effect from tuesday evening through
wednesday afternoon...

* timing: From tuesday evening until late wednesday afternoon.

* main impact: Snowfall amounts 4 to 8 inches.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Keep up with the latest weather information...especially if you
plan to travel.

Easy180
02-06-2011, 06:22 PM
I will take 5 then with highs back up near freezing on Thurs and *balmy* on Friday...Be a cakewalk compared to last week

venture
02-07-2011, 12:23 AM
Here is the look of the models this evening and their snowfall forecast. Look at these as max totals. There is going to be some mix early on that could keep snow totals down somewhat. Also, you'll see the models differ on the exact track of the storm...so this isn't in stone just yet.

NAM:
http://www.chatokc.com/images/nam_020711_00z.png

GFS:
http://www.chatokc.com/images/gfs_020711_00z.png

Roadhawg
02-07-2011, 08:18 AM
TWC says low 60's early next week... weird winter

OKCMallen
02-07-2011, 09:02 AM
Sheesh

OKCisOK4me
02-07-2011, 10:23 AM
I just want it to be Thursday.

venture
02-07-2011, 10:53 AM
Looking at the model runs this morning, they are holding pretty consistent with an 8-12" snowfall across the Metro Area. I'll be more actively monitoring the chat room tomorrow afternoon.

Roadhawg
02-07-2011, 10:57 AM
Thanks Venture... again appreciated

bandnerd
02-07-2011, 11:03 AM
At least it's going to warm up faster after this event than last week's event. That cold was epic and I'm happy to see it go away!

OKCMallen
02-07-2011, 11:10 AM
Thanks Venture! Surely this won't be quite as bad as the last one...

Andrew4OU
02-07-2011, 11:22 AM
Yeah, these past two winters have really been extraordinary, especially when you compare it to our normal winters. I thought we were going to dodge the bullet with La Nina and after we got through December and most January.

Thunder
02-07-2011, 11:49 AM
http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/8007/fxcwinterweatherupdate.jpg

Disclaimer: These are the prediction of the NWS! Point all anger toward them.

ou48A
02-07-2011, 12:15 PM
Winter storm warning. Updated products out shortly.

ou48A
02-07-2011, 12:27 PM
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ029&warncounty=OKC027&firewxzone=OKZ029&local_place1=Norman+OK&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND BITTER COLD...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND BITTER COLD...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. STORM INTENSITY PEAKING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VERY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW- PACKED
ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: AVERAGE OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY 10 INCHES.
DRIFTS 2 TO 3 FEET.

* OTHER IMPACTS: DANGEROUS COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING AS LOW AS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINISH PREPARATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVOID TRAVEL BY TUESDAY
EVENING. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY IF YOU
LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

Roadhawg
02-07-2011, 02:25 PM
http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/8007/fxcwinterweatherupdate.jpg

disclaimer: These are the prediction of the nws! Point all anger toward them.

lol

OKCisOK4me
02-07-2011, 02:43 PM
I hope this storm system is a bust for OKC like the storm system that was suppose to drop 1-3 inches late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Thunder
02-07-2011, 04:19 PM
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216654750154515572193.00049b8c16729fb622f8a&ll=35.32633,-97.69043&spn=7.186326,14.27124&t=h&z=7

Colors not appearing on the map anymore.

Bunty
02-07-2011, 04:44 PM
Well, I hope this time that the streets will be warmed up enough to make at least some of the snow melt when it falls on the streets.

Thunder
02-07-2011, 05:26 PM
Well, I hope this time that the streets will be warmed up enough to make at least some of the snow melt when it falls on the streets.

LOL!!!!!!! Before our previous Blizzard, the temps were quite warm. :-)

ou48A
02-07-2011, 06:04 PM
Mike Morgan says 7 to 12 inches for OKC area.
Gary England says 10 inches is the worst case for OKC.

For me it’s not so much the total amount, it’s the drifting that makes it so tough to get around

Easy180
02-07-2011, 06:43 PM
At least it's going to warm up faster after this event than last week's event. That cold was epic and I'm happy to see it go away!

That will make s huge difference...We should see some decent melting by Thurs afternoon and very little evidence of any snow by sat night

michael
02-07-2011, 06:52 PM
isnt it supposed to be like -7 on thursday night?

Easy180
02-07-2011, 07:49 PM
Supposed to be sunny with a high of 27....Will put a serious dent to the lovely stuff on the roads...After some ice on fri morning the storm will be a distant memory

Bunty
02-07-2011, 08:05 PM
LOL!!!!!!! Before our previous Blizzard, the temps were quite warm. :-) Very true. It got up to 76. But as I recall it was then real cold for 2 straight days before the snow started. Now with the temperture not expected above freezing tomorrow before the snow, I don't have much confidence in hoping the snow won't stick to the streets.

venture
02-07-2011, 11:23 PM
Here is the update for tonight. NAM and GFS still want to go different directions with the heaviest precip.

NAM - OKC Metro: 6 to 13"
http://www.chatokc.com/images/nam_020811_00z.png

GFS - OKC Metro: 8 to 12"
http://www.chatokc.com/images/gfs_020811_00z.png

blangtang
02-07-2011, 11:36 PM
Last week, I took the under on the +/- 10". Oops on that. I'm going to be stubborn and take the under on the 10" again. Hey this is more fun than Vegas OoOo!

But I'll bet the snowplows have all the streets clear by Monday. Man I wish i knew when the trash pickup is....

venture
02-08-2011, 12:38 AM
Norman updated their snowfall forecast for the Metro tonight to 8-10 inches.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/oun_020811.jpg

Thunder
02-08-2011, 04:42 AM
Norman updated their snowfall forecast for the Metro tonight to 8-10 inches.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/oun_020811.jpg

Certain someone will attack the town of Norman for predicting the snow totals. Be sure to say its from NWS in Norman. :-)

I'm all ready for this storm, so BRING IT ON! I wanna attempt to make a snowman.

bandnerd
02-08-2011, 06:10 AM
Do some of you ever sleep? lol.

kevinpate
02-08-2011, 06:22 AM
Thunder, if you can find your way to Norman when it snows this week, you can have, absolutely free of charge, every flake that lands in my driveway. Feel free to make snowmen until you run out of snowflakes. The only thing I ask is you move the snow from the driveway over into the yard first. That way i won't have to run them over with the truck.

Let me know when you're coming to town and I'll even make some hot cocoa. Oh, and bring a friend to help you move the snow if you want company, cause I'll be inside staying warm.
I'm hauling files home tonight, just in case tomorrow is another hermit day. I make a good hermit.

Thunder
02-08-2011, 07:08 AM
I'll be there, Kevin! Same flat rate charge for clearing the driveway.

Latest update and this is a doozy. :-)

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8007/fxcwinterweatherupdate.jpg

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/1540/kocorick.jpg

adaniel
02-08-2011, 09:58 AM
What it is going to look like weather-wise when the Thunder game lets out? I'm assuming this would be between 10-11 tonight. I've got a buddy who's going and I've offered my place to stay the night in midtown if he doesn't feel comfortable driving back to East Norman.

OKCisOK4me
02-08-2011, 10:10 AM
Norman updated their snowfall forecast for the Metro tonight to 8-10 inches.

http://www.chatokc.com/images/oun_020811.jpg

That's weird, I easily remember making a post about this picture last night that it LOOKS LIKE A BULLSEYE.... That's really weird..

OKCMallen
02-08-2011, 10:13 AM
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/1540/kocorick.jpg

I like how he groups together ALL of N and NE Oklahoma with the metro so he can say it's up to 12" in his prime viewing area even though current forecasts say it's only 10". A "foot of snow" sounds better than 10".

venture
02-08-2011, 10:23 AM
What it is going to look like weather-wise when the Thunder game lets out? I'm assuming this would be between 10-11 tonight. I've got a buddy who's going and I've offered my place to stay the night in midtown if he doesn't feel comfortable driving back to East Norman.

Short term RUC model indicating the heaviest precip shouldn't be here until after 10PM tonight.

adaniel
02-08-2011, 10:47 AM
Short term RUC model indicating the heaviest precip shouldn't be here until after 10PM tonight.

Thanks for the update. That is still cutting it close. Hopefully people won't dilly-dally in their exits out of the arena otherwise its going to be a madhouse on the interstates leading out of dowtown.

venture
02-08-2011, 11:25 AM
Granted that is just one model. NWS Norman is suggesting things will start going down hill around 7PM...but really it all depends on how well road crews keep up with it. If they don't sit back and let it happen, we'll be good. This looks to be a 95% snow event, maybe a little sleet early...but nothing horrible.

This morning's forecast models...

NAM - OKC Metro: 6 to 13" - http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX
http://www.chatokc.com/images/nam_020811_12z.png

GFS - OKC Metro: 10 to 15" - http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX
http://www.chatokc.com/images/gfs_020811_12z.png

michael
02-08-2011, 11:33 AM
wow, this is shaping up to be more in stillwater than the previous storm.

Bunty
02-08-2011, 01:15 PM
So far, I'm getting some consolation that the snow area in Kansas is having trouble crossing the Oklahoma border, except for the northeast corner.

Jesseda
02-08-2011, 01:40 PM
Yeah I think it might miss us, its rotating around on the north side it might spin around us to the north.. But im no Venture79, im just making a fun guess