New GFS is coming in now, should be done in about an hour.

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

Tulsa has upgraded their counties.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...O KMULGEE... WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWN EE...OTTAWA... WASHINGTON... OSAGE... CRAIG... NOWATA AND MUSKOGEE.

IN ARKANSAS... WASHINGTON...MADISON...BENTON AND CARROLL.

* THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44. ADDITIONALLY...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR A BROAD REGION OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

* NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

* THE EXTREME COLD FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL SHELTERING EVENT FOR THOSE WITH ANY PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

* MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

Norman rarely hypes, but I want to see GFS and NAM come together before I get really excited.

So couple things as the 18Z GFS is processing.

1) My snow forecast is getting bumped up some.
2) GFS and NAM are in agreement for the most part up through 42 hours but then start to diverge a bit.
3) At 48 hours GFS works in a dry slot from the SW. Ending most of the accumulating snow south of I-40. It has had this feature for he last several runs, just not this pronounced and far east.
4) Surface winds are going to be 25-35 mph, so the talk of upgrading to a Blizzard Warning aren't that far fetched right now.

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

There are different degrees of hype. The NAM is probably hype, but being stuck in a snowstorm even if it lasts a few hours is no fun and could be considered life-threatening.

Scottie is correct. PDS is a serious warning announcement and NWS do not go overboard on the hype, because they do not compete for television ratings/viewers.

That is also another issue I hate about GFS. It always love to put in the Dry Slot. It curses our exciting weather. :-( Like the saying, "You keep saying that, it will happen," something like karma. Ya get my drift. Screw you, GFS!!!

Norman rarely hypes, but I want to see GFS and NAM come together before I get really excited.

Yeah, my point exactly. We have a guy at work who follows Norman stuff pretty closely and he only seems to get his hackles up when they begin to use "alarming" language like this latest one has.

No one who lives outside OK believes me when I tell them that yesterday we almost hit 80 (and may have the day before) and now are looking what seems to be shaping up to be a nasty winter event.

My daughters have already called in from eastern OK county asking "how long do you think we'll be out of school?"...I told them if it happens like the current forecast, after tomorrow, they probably won't go back til Friday...

Looking like most of the state will be planning like crazy at work tomorrow...Being closed on the first ain't good but I guess it's better than monthend

My work never closes, guess I Better get the winter crash bag ready for another employee sleepover.. We need the moisture but I hate winter weather with a passion

Alright here we go. This is a blend of GFS and NAM 18Z models. They are pretty close like I stated before, but NAM lags back and doesn't dry slot out as fast. As we go through each period, my confidence does decrease in the amounts predicted here. These are mostly worst case scenarios without being insane like NAM.

January 31, 2011 6PM to 12AM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/v0Ad

This forecast looks pretty good. Light snow or flurries NW 1/3rd of the state. I-44 area and north will see a mix of Light Sleet, Freezing Rain and some snow. This could transition over faster and be mostly snow, but the amounts will be very light. Remainder of the state will be mostly rain and above freezing.

February 1, 2011 12AM to 6AM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/lfoo

Definitely a compromise here, but didn't go too crazy with precip amounts. Roughly NW 1/2 of state is going to be light snow with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. A strip through Central OK from just north of Tulsa to most of the OKC metro and down to Lawton will see more moderate snow, but amounts should only be 2 to 4 inches. Just south and east of there a strip of sleet and snow mix. SE of there will be an area of freezing rain and then all rain in far SE OK.

February 1, 2011 6AM to 12PM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/ruwz

Most intense time for precip, and there is pretty good agreement from the models on this. Precip amounts, again, are between GFS and NAM so may be on the high side. Flurries out in the Panhandle. Western OK and far southern OK around 1 to 3 inches, though some areas may be higher than that. Then a strip of moderate snow from Enid to Watonga to Lawton to Ardmore to Ada to McAlester and Fort Smoth...amounts around 3 to 6 inches. Inside that, including the metro...rough east and north of a line from Blackwell - Garber - Kingfisher - El Reno - Chickasha - Pauls Valley - Holdenville - Muskogee - Tahlequah...snow amounts could be 6 to 12 inches with locally high amounts (especially NE). Winds also appear to be the highest during this period around 30mph or more.

February 1, 2011 12PM to 6PM - http://goo.gl/maps/cQHH

There is where I have little confidence in the forecast. There are still differences in NAM and GFS here. NAM holds precip back longer, producing more heavy precip in the eastern half of the state, while GFS clears it out fast. Both do agree on some precip in the northern half of the state, so went mostly light there which heavier amounts as you go to the east. GFS keeps most amounts below 3 inches in the state, but NAM again has some crazy totals. This period honestly could yield most good snow or nothing at all. If the dry slot works in fast, we may only be left with some flurries or freezing drizzle.

Current Best Guesscast for OKC Metro...
Rain: 0.1"
Ice: 0.1"
Snow: 8 to 14" with some locally higher amounts possible.

That ain't good to say the least

Can't say that I have ever called in due to weather but I damn sure ain't getting into anything resembling Xmas eve 09 again...Just ain't worth it to try to score some job points

Well, I guess we can look on the bright side and say that we are getting some help with the drought...

I can work from home as long as there is power.

venture - thanks so much for your updates. I've been following them ever since the Christmas Eve Blizzard in 2009. they're appreciated. with that being said, I just saw your forecasted totals for the OKC metro. :ohno:

Yeah, weather like this highlights another benefit of working from home.

I agree with Andrew.... thanks for the updates

Thanks, Venture.

00Z NAM is rolling in now...this will be our first look at the storm with a sampling of data from weather balloons and such this afternoon.

Let's hope we have one disappointing balloon

Maybe it will increase the snow totals....

http://services.trb.com/kfor/7day.jpg

So about that snow shovel....perhaps a snowblower? Will wait to update total until GFS comes in later, but NAM is wetter than before...well more moisture, but its frozen in this pretty little white crystal type things that go weeeeeeeee in the wind. Ugh okay...that was creepy. More in a few. LOL NAM also appears to be speeding things up just a tad, but no major dryslot of doom like GFS yet.

Venture, what happened to Twitter updates?

Venture, what happened to Twitter updates?

I haven't used it in so long, I don't think I remember the login. LOL

So what did the NAM bring us.

Monday Evening...relatively nothing going on. Some light drizzle and rain far southeast and light snow in the western panhandle. Surface temps will be below freezing roughly northwest of I-44. Upper levels appear to be about the same.

3AM - Freezing line is a bit further east, but upper levels are lagging a bit. Some areas right along I-35 could go either way. Precip is forecast to start in SW OK and also SC into Central OK. SW OK should be mainly snow, maybe an inch, and closer to home it can go either way. Probably see a mix of snow and sleet with freezing rain remaining further east. NAM doom forecast is around 1" of snow for the Metro.

6AM - Freezing line is almost through all of OK except far eastern OK, same for the upper levels. Precip will increase a good clip here. Looks like two snow bands. One around Weatherford/Clinton that will drop 1-3" there, another closer to us that will be mainly 3-6". However, there will be a heavier section in that that could drop 6 to 10" and it looks that will setup somewhere from Tulsa to Norman to Duncan. Wind looks like 10-20mph at this point, so not insane yet.

9AM - Heavy snow band continues from Bartlesville down to Norman to Ardmore. This band can drop another 6-8" from Norman on south, and 6-12" north. Bartlesville area may see around 12". Winds still 10-20 mph.

12PM - Main snow is moving out and will be east of I-35. West of I-35 some flurries or light snow, maybe a dusting. East of I-35 roughly another 2-4" with far NE OK seeing maybe another 4-6".

3PM - Some flurries and such around, but thats about it.

So don't get fixated on specifics. Mainly just look at this as that there will be a heavy snow band someplace in the state and the exact placement won't be figured out until... Tuesday. LOL

GFS is now starting its run and will be ready in about an hour.

Weather Channel is showing serious ice storm from St Louis to Indy followed by snow so I guess it could be worse

Have a few beers before the next update venture...Might help bring it back down to 4 or 5 inches

GFS came back tamer than NAM...6-10". Will do a full evaluation in an hour or two.

Looking at everything, I'm going to hold tight for now. I think the forecast is actually pretty good as is from when I last updated. GFS was a bit higher than I thought after looking at the zoomed in products.

Closer in look...

NAM 8-12" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX
GFS 10-15" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

Even tho both of those models barely cover the metro with those awesome snow totals, I still do not appreciate those models leaning toward the eastern half of the state. What is with that?! Just that I notice how almost every time, the models predict the eastern half of state getting the most snow actually jinx the weather to favor the eastern half leaving us tiny bit to enjoy. At this point, I'm just "hopeful" the metro do not miss out of the bunch, because its rare to see so much snow like it used to be 10+ years ago.

Looking at everything, I'm going to hold tight for now. I think the forecast is actually pretty good as is from when I last updated. GFS was a bit higher than I thought after looking at the zoomed in products.

Closer in look...

NAM 8-12" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX
GFS 10-15" for metro: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

I wouldn't be surprised if the weather service has to step things up to a blizzard warning.

Even tho both of those models barely cover the metro with those awesome snow totals, I still do not appreciate those models leaning toward the eastern half of the state. What is with that?! Just that I notice how almost every time, the models predict the eastern half of state getting the most snow actually jinx the weather to favor the eastern half leaving us tiny bit to enjoy. At this point, I'm just "hopeful" the metro do not miss out of the bunch, because its rare to see so much snow like it used to be 10+ years ago.

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

LOLOLOLOL!!!! Those businesses can handle it. Few days... Pfffft. I'll betcha after this is over, they won't be filing bankrupt.

I wouldn't be surprised if the weather service has to step things up to a blizzard warning.

We'll meet the snowfall criteria easily I think, it will just be a mattered of making sure winds are 35 mph sustained for 3 hours.

Thunder, I'm sure all of the people who stand to lose money from lost business during a snow storm will appreciate how much you enjoy the snow.

Let's try to keep this thread focused more on the weather and not so much on other topics. If you'd like, you can always start up another thread of weather impacts on local business. :-)

Let's try to keep this thread focused more on the weather and not so much on other topics. If you'd like, you can always start up another thread of weather impacts on local business. :-)

Venture, I certainly appreciate your input but the topic of "Winter Weather Discussion - Jan 2011" isn't quite that exclusive. Maybe you should mention that to Thunder when he starts jumping up and down about the possibility of being able to go out and play in the snow. I think the effect of the weather on those of us in this area is certainly relevant to this thread. If we weren't concerned about the impact of the weather this thread wouldn't be taking place either.

LOLOLOLOL!!!! Those businesses can handle it. Few days... Pfffft. I'll betcha after this is over, they won't be filing bankrupt.

You wouldn't be saying that if the money was coming out of your pocket. Would you care to reimburse everyone who loses money?

Venture, I certainly appreciate your input but the topic of "Winter Weather Discussion - Jan 2011" isn't quite that exclusive. Maybe you should mention that to Thunder when he starts jumping up and down about the possibility of being able to go out and play in the snow. I think the effect of the weather on those of us in this area is certainly relevant to this thread. If we weren't concerned about the impact of the weather this thread wouldn't be taking place either.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you've been on this site for over a year now...you should understand the nature of these threads just fine. :-)

Now back on topic.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you've been on this site for over a year now...you should understand the nature of these threads just fine. :-)

Now back on topic.

I certainly understand the nature of the threads and have kept on topic as much as Thunder has. Again, I really appreciate your information because the weather does impact us more than just how much fun snow is.

I have gone ahead and loaded up the live blog again for this event. Please understand that I won't be able to be in it all the time (still have to work, eat, and sleep)...but I have it running now. If it times out and closes down, I'll get it back up and going. I have linked several important twitter feeds to the chat so we can keep up-to-date information flowing. The live event also features some new features, so we'll try to make sure of it as well.

Just go to http://www.chatokc.com and the blog will come right up - since that is the only thing the page is used for. LOL

There may be some un-related twitter feeds that make it through, but I'll be working to keep those cleaned out. :-) I should have comment moderation turned off though, so please feel free to contribute or ask questions when you want.

With T minus 22 hours and counting until Snowlocaust 2011, I figured I'd go ahead and start the thread. Not like it really matters, since we're all gonna die anyway.

Hide yo kids, hide yo wife. . .

06Z NAM bumped up back to around 12" for OKC proper.

Chat is broken. It won't go thru what I type.


MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN... MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY
TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SW US
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME... A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OK WHERE
4-8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... WHILE WE HAVE NOTED THAT THE LATEST 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A
RATHER SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT GENERALLY NW OF I-44 IN CENTRAL
OK... WE WILL SEE IF THAT TREND PERSISTS IN OTHER MODELS AND LATER
RUNS.

WE EXPECT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS... THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE THE MOST ICE WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THAT AREA WILL SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS... BUT TIMING OF THE PHASE-CHANGES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MEANWHILE... THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OK AND N-TX TONIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES POURING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NOT ONLY COULD THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS... BUT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR
ANYONE CAUGHT OUT IN THE WEATHER.

ONCE THE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN... WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN FALLING BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
OK... MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
FRIDAY.

again thanks for all the updates... much appreciated.

I'd just like to as an assistant manager of a grocery store I'd like to thank mother nature and the meteorologists for some of the best sales we've had in the last year thanks to this event.

Morning everyone. I'll be approving everyone for comments once someone makes their first one. After that you can post freely. Thunder you are taken care of. :-)

When's the next update, Venture??

12Z NAM model is ridiculous with the snow totals. Easily a foot for OKC. See what the rest show now.

Go to http://www.chatokc.com/ for constant update.

Latest from NAM is saying the system to go slower and stronger as it approaches. Next GFS run is coming in now.

WOW! This is a far cry from the doom and gloom "lock up your kids" report that came out on KFOR tonight. Morgan must get kick-backs from local grocery stores for all the business he sends their way. He was predicting Christmas Eve 2009 for tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m., with much colder temperatures. Said we'd get freezing rain/ice plus 6"-12" inches of snow with large drifts, and that I-44/Tulsa area would fare much worse. Said we could easily see the same road conditions as 2009.

That's why I like to read real, sensible, non-ratings driven weather reports here. Thanks, Venture!

WOW! This is a far cry from the doom and gloom "lock up your kids" report that came out on KFOR tonight. Morgan must get kick-backs from local grocery stores for all the business he sends their way. He was predicting Christmas Eve 2009 for tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m., with much colder temperatures. Said we'd get freezing rain/ice plus 6"-12" inches of snow with large drifts, and that I-44/Tulsa area would fare much worse. Said we could easily see the same road conditions as 2009.

That's why I like to read real, sensible, non-ratings driven weather reports here. Thanks, Venture!

Actually, everything is in agreement with Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan. :-)

There will be freezing rain, ice, sleet, and snow across the state. It all depends on the location. There will be a whole bunch of snow and drifts. It will rival the Blizzard of '09. Stay tuned!

12Z NAM is showing around 10 to 18" possible across the metro. 12Z GFS appears to be well under that around 3-6 with the higher totals as you move east.

Actually, everything is in agreement with Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan. :-)

There will be freezing rain, ice, sleet, and snow across the state. It all depends on the location. There will be a whole bunch of snow and drifts. It will rival the Blizzard of '09. Stay tuned!

The last NAM does anyway. So far it looks like we won't have that solid layer of ice like the 09 storm, but maybe equal or greater amounts of snow.

How can we tell what sort of ice we're expecting? If it rains from 6pm tonight even until 8pm before shifting into snow, that's a lot of ice?

How can we tell what sort of ice we're expecting? If it rains from 6pm tonight even until 8pm before shifting into snow, that's a lot of ice?

From what I can see the precip won't even start until after 10 PM (at least)
I don't think we'll see much ice at all (if any)

NWS Norman has gone 6-12" for the Metro:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg

From what I can see the precip won't even start until after 10 PM (at least)
I don't think we'll see much ice at all (if any)

Ah, gotcha. The faster switch over to snow the better, obviously.

I just want this crap to start after I get off work at 8pm!

Ah, gotcha. The faster switch over to snow the better, obviously.

Yeah I am actually in OKC this week for work. Moved up to Wisconsin early this year. Thought I'd get away from this crap.... nope

Yeah I am actually in OKC this week for work. Moved up to Wisconsin early this year. Thought I'd get away from this crap.... nope

Get away from this...yer funny. LOL That's like me moving here from the Great Lakes thinking the same. :-P

Run down of advisories...

Winter Storm Warning: GRANT, KAY, GARFIELD, NOBLE, KINGFISHER, LOGAN, PAYNE, CADDO, CANADIAN, OKLAHOMA, LINCOLN, GRADY, MCCLAIN, CLEVELAND, POTTAWATOMIE, SEMINOLE, GARVIN, ALFALFA, MAJOR, DEWEY, CUSTER, BLAINE, WA****A, HUGHES, KIOWA, COMANCHE, STEPHENS, MURRAY, PONTOTOC, AND CARTER.

Winter Weather Advisory: Harper, Woods, Ellis, Woodward, Roger Mills, Beckham, Harmon, Greer, Jackson, Tillman, Cotton, Jefferson, and Love.

Venture- how many more forecast model runs do they have time to do before tonight? I find all this so fascinating!