So the 12Z model...well let me say this first. As we get closer, this isn't getting any easier. LOL People out there that say with more certainty on whats going to happen are lying or love being at Riverwind on the weekends. Two major issues with models. 1) Exact placement of heavy precip and 2) Finalizing the location of the coldest air at all levels. 12Z GFS slowed the cold air moving into the state down quite a bit, when you compare it to the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM/JMA/UKMET which all had it in place Tuesday morning. I'm going to wait until this evening before doing a complete re-work of the forecast so I can see if the slower arrival of cold air is the new trend or just a short term bump.

So for now, I'll default to updating some information from NWS Norman that I haven't posted in a while.

Last bit from me. Keep in my the very high fire danger the next two days. Things will be toasty (relatively) and we have only received a couple inches of liquid precip since October.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Developing_Weather.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Winter_Weather_Update.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Weather_Story.jpg


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

...BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION... ALTHOUGH THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER... LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND MAYBE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY... WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LEADING TO EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS... WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTIES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE... TIMING OF WHEN THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN... AND HOW MUCH WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY RECEIVE ONE TO ALL OF THE TYPES OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED.

IN THE MEAN TIME... PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SATURDAY JAN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL AS RAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS...THE CHANCES FOR FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY EXPERIENCE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH WARM WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND ITS IMPACTS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AS THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FASTEN THE SEAT BELTS... THE WEATHER`S ROLLER COASTER RIDE IS STARTING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THEY PLUNGE INTO THE ICY COLD.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TODAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS... ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH TX. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE... GENERALLY RUNNING 15 MPH OR LOWER... ALTHOUGH MIXING COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERN OK AS A COLD FRONT WAFFLES INTO THE AREA... BUT HIGHS WILL STILL RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER LOW... LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING... WILL LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WILL BE OVER EASTERN TX... SOME OF IT MAY ALSO SPILL INTO SE OK. MEANWHILE... A LARGE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER SOUTH.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CHILL DOWN... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A BETTER POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER AMONG THE MODELS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY... WITH THE GFS STARTING IT A LITTLE SOONER AND GENERATING MORE QPF IN GENERAL. THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION... THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTM CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING... PHASE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF THE PRECIP.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES... BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL AT TIMES RESULT IN SUB ZERO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK.

Appears to be two large grass fires in Norman. One on the SE side just south of Highway 9 (smoke is pretty thick over the house). Other appears to be back up north a bit.

KWTV live video: http://www.news9.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419&LiveURI=mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419&h1=Firefighters%20Battle%20Grass%20Fire%20In%20Sou theast%20Norman&at1=University%20-%20Academics&LiveURITitle=Firefighters%20Battle%20Grass%20Fire% 20In%20Southeast%20Norman&LaunchPageAdTag=University%20-%20Academics&fvCatNo=undefined&secure=undefined&akPort=undefined&akProfile=undefined&rnd=50204833

Area currently impacted: http://goo.gl/maps/TT0R

SE Norman fire appears to be done. No more smoke rising up and the noisy helicopters are gone. lol

Sid...I look at it as you would when you put any liquid water on ice. It gets extremely slick. So imagine that under the ice and on top of the ice. Ground temps are pretty warm now, so there will be some liquid under any ice that forms.

Fire Update from NWS Norman. Currently seeing some more smoke out the window, but not as bad as earlier. Probably just a hot spot getting put out.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Image_of_the_Day.jpg

Quick update. 18Z has warmed up a bit. This solution stays all rain through mid-day Tuesday and a transition to snow before ending very quickly. The tricky part will be surface temps, if they stay at or below freezing we have problems. If they are a bit warmer, we will have just a really raw (gross) day with some moderate rain and maybe a dusting before the snow ends. Of course, that situation also opens up to be a very favorable black ice event Tuesday night as the rain would wash most of the salt away and freeze overnight.

Heavy snow is also completely removed from the entire state with just the far northern sections getting 1-3 (maybe a 4" here and there) in most areas.

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

We will have it. Just depend on the location.

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

If the precip is heavy enough, it can overcome the melting process from a warm ground. Also, the melting process itself will absorb a lot of latent heat and speed up the cooling process.

As far as Life Threatening Weather...well a person died with the recent flurry, so it is all relative. We'll see what happens.

Did the models push back in the cold air yet?

GFS is just coming in, NAM is just now covering Tuesday morning and is showing more snow for the first part. Give it about an hour an I'll have everything covered. The Canadian, UK, etc models won't be available for a bit.

Okay, I will be sitting right here.

Mmk. Going to take care of Monday evening really quick while I go through the rest. Feel okay with this outlook for now.

Forecast Map: http://goo.gl/maps/o5Xg

Reason for my madness: This is a blend of NAM & GFS for now. I'll tweak when I can spend more time with the others. Very light precip will start in the state. I have a section with Flurries or Light snow in the NW 1/2 of the state. This section I'm not 100% buying just yet, these areas could effectively be completely dry. There is some agreement with a strip of precip from SW OK up into Central sections. Surface temps will be VERY close to freezing (either side). Upper level temps will have a layer of warm air that will cause ice crystals to melt. Then went with the more likely area of rain to the SE of that strip.

Amounts should be relatively light. The center strip could have amounts up to 0.10 of an inch...so if we see freezing rain, we'll see a decent glaze develop. Elsewhere, very light or trace amounts seem to be the rule. So at worst, from the way it looks right now, will be advisory criteria (either Winter Weather or Freezing Rain) from SW into Central OK for this period.

Tuesday coming up...

Put an update out in a new post.

Give us snow instead of ice, because I got aquariums here. If you give us the OMGWTF Ice Storm, I would have to go to Walmart to buy several battery operated air pumps (the kind for fishing) with lots of C or D batteries. I would also have to get hair nets to take out all the bio-media in the filters to put them inside the hair net inside the aquariums to keep wet with bubbles running underneath them for water flow to keep the bacteria colonies on those bio-media alive. Without them, the water turns toxic and deadly. Ya see, this will be quite costly, so please, as a brother to brother, give us the snow storm instead.

Tuesday Outlook

1200AM to 600AM - http://goo.gl/maps/kqBL

Precip intensities will see a quick increase. Western OK will be cold enough at all levels to remain mainly snow. Western 1/3rd of OK should see light snow with up to an inch of accumulation possible. Just east of that from Blackwell to Enid to Watonga to Frederick we could see a strip of 1-2" of light now accumulate. The Southeast 1/2 (well almost) of Oklahoma will be mostly liquid and above freezing...so light to moderate rain is possible there (heavier in South Central OK). Then the fun stuff...which happens to include us. Between the two areas will be a strip of Freezing Rain and Sleet. Snow accumulations in this time frame look very limited as the upper air setup looks to favor freezing rain and sleet formation over snow crystals. Precip amounts could become quick heavy with 0.5 to 0.75" of precip possible. This could cause for significant icing if surface temps fall and stay below freezing. We could just get a very cold rain too and remain above freezing. There is also a chance that if the upper levels cool just a smidgen more, we'll see more sleet than freezing rain.

Winds will increase during this time frame and could be 20-25 mph.

600AM to 1200PM - http://goo.gl/maps/qWIY

Transition and precipitation type gradient will tighten some. We will also see precip start to end pretty quickly from west to east. Western Oklahoma could still see some light snow. Another inch or two is possible in NW OK and through an area from Blackwell/Ponca City to Enid to Anadarko to Lawton. East of there, including OKC Metro, we could see an area of enhanced snow fall with some moderate to occasionally heavy snow. Here we can see 3 to 6 inches of new snowfall, perhaps more in spots. We could also see less if additional mixing or sleet occurs. East of that area is an area of some pretty significant icing from Tulsa to Ardmore. High accumulations could be well over a half inch. Then east of there, through most of SE OK we could see precip still be primarily rain and some of it heavy.

Winds will be 20-30 mph so some blowing and drifting could occur. It could also exacerbate conditions where icing is greatest with more power outages.

1200PM to 1200AM - http://goo.gl/maps/XY2R

Precip is coming to an end very quickly. Light snow/flurries will cover most of the state. Far SE Oklahoma could still see a light mix there. There will be two areas where an additional 1 or 2 inches could accumulate in far Northern OK and through SE sections. Winds will start to calm down a bit and be generally 15-20 mph. As the snow pulls out, some flurries may remain around in the NE 1/2 of the state through the evening.

Summary

Metro OKC is going to go through 3 phases. Everything will kick off with some light rain or freezing rain. This will quickly move into an icing situation where things could go south very quickly. We will then see a quick transition for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow on Tuesday before the snow moves out very fast. I wouldn't be shocked if it clears out by afternoon drive time on Tuesday.

Worst Case Totals:
Freezing Rain: 0.50 - 0.75"
Sleet/Snow: 3 to 8" (depends a lot on amount of sleet)

So this will not be a repeat Christmas Eve Blizzard. This seems to be closer to the second winter storm we had last year in January with icing first and then a quick blast of accumulating snow. Of course this could all go the way side if temps don't cool enough.

Wow sounds intense. Sort of like an ugly Snowmaggedon/Icepocalypse hybrid lovechild. If I remember correctly last January the freezing rain changed over to sleet fairly rapidly in OKC which kept this area from experiencing power outages (of course I was still stuck in the house for 3 days). Whats the chance that happens again?

Also, how much ice does it take to start bringing down trees, power poles, etc?

I don't think it would take much ice to snap power lines and branches with the wind. I dunno what is the wind forecast for those days. If its real windy, then we have a problem. I can't remember what amount of ice is approaching danger levels for power lines and trees.

Sleet, if there is a lot of that, it is very hard to plow away, because they are packed solid ice together.

Scottie, thanks so much for your time and dedication to provide us your insight. It is all greatly appreciated. <3

Wow sounds intense. Sort of like an ugly Snowmaggedon/Icepocalypse hybrid lovechild. If I remember correctly last January the freezing rain changed over to sleet fairly rapidly in OKC which kept this area from experiencing power outages (of course I was still stuck in the house for 3 days). Whats the chance that happens again?

Also, how much ice does it take to start bringing down trees, power poles, etc?

It can still go either way. We could end up being mostly rain and transition into snow before ending. Of course it would be nice to luck out and go mostly snow and avoid the icing.

As far as how much ice trees and such can take. Considering the amount of ice storms we've had over the years, we may not have a lot of weak trees out there. However, with it being so dry lately - that could come into play. Also any trees weakened by the severe storms of last spring could be an issue. Once we get over a quarter of an inch of ice is when we start seeing limbs and such come down. Of course we should avoid the results we saw from the major ice storm a few years ago when we had 1-2 inches of ice on everything.

Crap. I don't want to take any more snow days out of school. I see my very small vacation window dwindling away...

Looks like Tuesday will be fun regardless of what falls from the sky

Either way I expect my company to send out their usual weather alert text message basically saying get yo ass to work

Glad I bought a jeep last week :)

My car is in dire need of a wash. Definitely not a detail, as that would be oxymoronish with the system coming in.

12Z model runs have a few changes, but not enough to warrant a full re-write just yet. NAM is colder with more snow. GFS is faster with the bulk of precip east of I-35. Not going to bother tweaking anything until tomorrow evening. The system will be coming on shore finally and a new set of real time observations will then be available to plug into the models.

Good morning, sir. I see the NAM is finally going colder with more snow. It took that frickin' model forever! But it is sad to see the GFS thinking it will move fast... What do the NAM think on the speed?

Good morning, sir. I see the NAM is finally going colder with more snow. It took that frickin' model forever! But it is sad to see the GFS thinking it will move fast... What do the NAM think on the speed?

Appears NAM and GFS 12Z runs are essentially garbage this morning from a message sent out by the HPC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Preference is on the UK and European forecast models, which unfortunately aren't as widely available to the public.

Fire Weather Update from Norman...(graphic will auto update)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Fire_Update.jpg

KWTV is streaming the Logan County wildfire...which appears to currently be consuming a house.

http://www.news9.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms://a480.l4265422479.c42654.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/480/42654/v0001/reflector:22479&LiveURI=mms://a480.l4265422479.c42654.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/480/42654/v0001/reflector:22479&h1=Firefighters%20Battle%20Logan%20County%20Grass% 20Fire&at1=University%20-%20Academics&LiveURITitle=Firefighters%20Battle%20Logan%20Count y%20Grass%20Fire&LaunchPageAdTag=University%20-%20Academics&fvCatNo=undefined&secure=undefined&akPort=undefined&akProfile=undefined&rnd=49486038

Going by the latest graphic/satellite, it looks like there are at least 40 wildfires going right now.

Update Discussion from Norman with some stronger wording being used.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FIRE... THEN ICE. DRY BREEZY AND RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARM CONDITIONS LEADING TO HOT SPOTS BREAKING OUT ALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTH AS COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SW KS MOVES S THROUGH AREA TONIGHT BRINGING FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AIR. UPPER SYSTEM OVER TX WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF -RA SE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

COLD SFC HIGH HAS BUILT NICELY OVER CANADA AND WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY TO SET UP A POTENTIAL MAJOR MESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH IS INEVITIBLE BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE WORST OF THE EVENT LIKELY UNFOLDING IN PERIODS 5/6. STILL MANY VARIABLES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS - ANOTHER REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION FROM RA/DZ TO ICE TO SNOW WILL BE RATHER SWIFT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BUT TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE SO IS THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY... AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 BY WED MORNING.

ALL RESOURCES TODAY ARE BEING BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE-WED... SO NO BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT.

Tulsa has gone ahead and put up Winter Storm Watches for counties in their area of responsibility.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...
WASHINGTON... WAGONER... OTTAWA... PAWNEE... DELAWARE... CHEROKEE... ADAIR... CRAIG... NOWATA... CREEK... OKFUSKEE... OKMULGEE... MUSKOGEE... TULSA... ROGERS... MAYES AND OSAGE.

* IN ARKANSAS...
BENTON... WASHINGTON... CARROLL AND MADISON.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS...YET NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL STORM.

* SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONALLY...ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER ICING EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS IN THE WATCH AREA...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM SYSTEM. ANY PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES WOULD QUICKLY ESCALATE INTO A SHELTERING RESPONSE.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HEAVY SNOW OR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SLEET IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND THE NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

So the bullseye is now on the NE?

Also seems to be talking less ice and more snow with each update...Am I reading that correctly?

Going by the latest graphic/satellite, it looks like there are at least 40 wildfires going right now.

I was driving back from Cushing, East on 18 through Agra and saw one spring up. It looked like it wasn't too far from where I was. It went from a tiny white plume, to a boiling black mess. I had to pull over twice (always fun on a 2-lane, no shoulder highway!) for two fire trucks.

So the bullseye is now on the NE?

Also seems to be talking less ice and more snow with each update...Am I reading that correctly?

Not exactly. You have to keep in mind that the Eastern 1/3rd of Oklahoma is cover by NWS Tulsa whereas the remainder of the state (except for the Panhandle, that is Amarillo) is covered by NWS Norman. Tulsa decided to issue their watch now, unlike Norman which stated in its discussion (pasted in the previous post) that they are going to wait a bit since they have plenty of time.

There is some hope for more snow than ice, but we need to see if we can get a quality product out of the forecast models first.

Evacuation ordered due to fire in Lincoln County.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
LINCOLN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS BEING TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE LINCOLN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

A FIRE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...FROM ROUTE 105 AT N3420 ROAD... NORTH TO E0760 ROAD. THIS IS THE AREA ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AGRA AND TRYON. A WILDFIRE IS OUT OF CONTROL IN THIS AREA... AND RESIDENTS SHOULD EVACUATE IN A GENERALLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

Evacuation ordered due to fire in Lincoln County.

Yup, that's the fire that I drove by.

Good evening, sir. I slept mostly today and now just getting on. So, GFS and NAM will be totally tossed for this system? What should we expect? The oversea models are saying things will be a lot less than previously thought?

Good evening, sir. I slept mostly today and now just getting on. So, GFS and NAM will be totally tossed for this system? What should we expect? The oversea models are saying things will be a lot less than previously thought?

No just those morning runs were bad. Things are still unstable with the models this evening. GFS is moving the system out very quickly and NAM is dumping more snow. Will wait for the morning run before doing another recap. This system is now coming on shore into Northern California...so we will start to be able to get some detailed upper air readings from weather balloons starting tomorrow. Hopefully by the model runs tomorrow evening, we'll have a good grasp on things.

Either way, look for Winter Storm Watches to go up as early as tomorrow morning.

Couple links I'll toss out that show a more zoomed in look at snowfall forecast from both NAM & GFS. Take these with a bucket of salt.

NAM: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

GFS: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

Other links of interest...these can take some time to update.
Foreign Models - Canadian GEM, UKMET, JMA and ECMWF: http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm
Snowfall Charts: http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm

Latest from the NWS in Norman.


.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
FOG WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER FAR SW TX/NRN
MEX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX TODAY
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRUSH FAR
SOUTHEAST OK.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFTING COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN OK FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. PRIMARY ATTENTION SHIFTS NOW TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. A 1052 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST
TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN... CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
WESTERN OK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WITH THE COLD AIR DEEPENING FAIRLY QUICKLY... BELIEVE PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT (for the metro)... WITH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SEEING THE MOST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
SOME AREAS IN THE WATCH AREA COULD SEE 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL...
ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS IS DIFFICULT ATTM. STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.

THE COLD WEATHER... AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES... ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.


http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/fxc_Monday.jpg

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/fxc_Monday_Night.jpg

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/fxc_Tuesday_Morning.jpg

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg

Looks good to me...Would rather have 4 or 5 inches of snow than a quarter inch of ice...I would also think the high winds will help road condition wise even though we might not be able to see a damn thing

Thanks for getting the updates from Norman posted Thunder.

NAM and GFS this morning still hate each other. HPC advice is that GFS is favored right now for the most part. GFS is tending to favor a more rain to freezing rain to a very short period of snow. This solution we could see up to a half inch of rain and freezing rain before transitioning to snow where we may see 1 to 3 inches tops. NAM on the other hand is more aggressive and has the cold air in place earlier. It goes for mostly snow with a swatch of 12-18 inches for most of Central & NE Oklahoma with an area inside that of 18 to 24 inches from OKC to just north of Tulsa.

The system is on shore now, so going to see how the models react later today once they have all the data fully processed.

2 feet of snow...That sounds realistic with a fast moving storm

If we get 2 feet of snow, it is going to look like a galactic pillow fight.

If we get 2 feet of snow, it is going to look like a galactic pillow fight.

If it would ever happen, we would be shut in for a week.

If it would ever happen, we would be shut in for a week.

It won't happen. I know this because we had the house wired for a generator, got a generator, and even have gasoline at the ready. No worries. I have paid for our insurance, at least for this part of town. <vbg>

I'm favoring the NAM. haha

Is the system showing any signs of slowing down when it gets here?

And the latest from KOCO at http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/01/30/what-i-know-and-what-i-think-i-know/

I like this NAM graphic. heh

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/nam_221_2011013012_f60_snowin_surface_sm.png?w=426&h=304

Updated the Monday evening map to reflect GFS for the most part. This is pretty close to what Norman has now with their recent update, but i'm siding with a bit warmer air and more rain. http://goo.gl/maps/EzFX

Highlights
- Light Snow, maybe a dusting to an inch in the panhandle.
- Flurries or Light Snow NW OK north of a line from Ponca City to Hennessey to Cheyenne.
- Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow/Rain Mix south of the previous area but north of a line from Vinita - Skiatook - Cushing - Edmond - Yukon - Anadarko - Cache - Frederick.
- Mostly Rain south of that area including OKC proper, Tulsa, Norman, and Lawton.

Of course this is pretty specific and the track of the storm can definitely swing these around. So don't get too serious about them just yet.

Rick Mitchell on Twitter just posted prayers needed, what's that supposed to mean?

Rick Mitchell on Twitter just posted prayers needed, what's that supposed to mean?

It's going to be a major event. It is his calm way when compared to Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan.

All want to lean to worse case, gfs is probobly the way it will play out. Just a hype fest as usual

All want to lean to worse case, gfs is probobly the way it will play out. Just a hype fest as usual

That's my thinking. NAM is just being too far out there. This definitely is smelling more like a system that will get the hype but fall far short.

New Map for 12AM to 6AM on Tuesday: http://goo.gl/maps/qAV9

This is essentially what GFS has, I didn't really want to invest much into the massive precip amounts of the NAM for this period. GFS is a bit warmer, which may not be the case. Regardless, all that will do is spare the eastern part of the state from an ice storm. Both models due indicate two bands of precip, which is why there is a drop in precip amounts in the area just west of the metro.

Added in 6AM to 6PM forecast here: http://goo.gl/maps/3Cz3

Transition to mostly snow for the entire state and the system will exit pretty fast. Snow amounts will be fairly light except in the NE where 6+ could fall.

Norman AFD 2:32PM 1/30/2011
DISCUSSION

POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW
APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX
ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS...
AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE
-15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME
IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING
NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME
POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER
AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO
FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE
PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG
WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER
LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING
SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE
MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND
FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE
AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND
CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

NWS Norman's first stab at amounts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg

Venture, I only see mentions of one cold front, so since this front had already passed through, it should be real easy for the colder air to get here...quickly. NWS was noting how the clouds cover is being persistent today, so it limits the temperature increase. Clouds cover keeping the temperature down and then tonight comes when it all plummets. I bet the highs for Monday was lowered. What you think?

Surface temps won't really be the problem. It is the temp from 1500 to 2500 feet up that is forecast to be above freezing.

Are we looking at a wet or powder snow? Thinking if it's more powder the streets may benefit from the high winds

Latest Discussion...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION ROUTINE INVOKED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME LOW POPS EVENTUALLY FOR ANOTHER EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT FOCUS IS SQUARELY ON THE EARLY-WEEK EVENT.

OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

OMGWTF ROTFLMFAO!!! Remember, Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan called it days ago! He said this storm could be a notch below the Christmas Eve Blizzard '09. Now look what NWS is saying!!! :-O

Warnings incoming....


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

Counties: GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-GARVIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY... KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ANADARKO...YUK ON...EL RENO... MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY... CHANDLER... CHICKASHA... PURCELL... NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

* A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING... BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT: A CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS... ALONG WITH EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ON EXPOSED SURFACES... ALSO MAY LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS OF COMMERCIAL POWER. BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE POOR VISIBILITY AND NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.

* ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING... MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE STORM MAY KEEP SOME ROADS FROZEN AND HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* PLAN NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IMMOBILIZING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STOCK UP ON NECESSARY FOOD AND OTHER PROVISIONS BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES... INCLUDING ANY NECESSARY MEDICATION.

* CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT UNNECESSARY TRAVEL MAY BE RESTRICTED... IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE... BY EARLY TUESDAY.

* STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THIS DANGEROUS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE. ALSO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

Time to make chili and get some movies

New GFS is coming in now, should be done in about an hour.