[QUOTE=Thunder;328582] and women...QUOTE]

I'm sorry but I can honestly say I have never seen a woman doing Live Weather News, I have seen them open the newscast for weather related issues. No flame intended just thought about that for a moment.

Peach, you failed. We have Sarah Libby on KOCO and a woman for KFOR.

Oh ya? well I have Rick Mitchell in my pocket. plus pretty women doing the weather might leave me prone to forget about a twister

I stand by my comments. It was a hell of a storm, but...even on nothing storms, he acts the exact same way.

I noticed on Kfor that they have "7 day forecast wars" where the evening forecast is always the worst cast scenario while the afternoon meterologist on duty is usually more conservative.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD SETTING UP A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE MOVING INTO WRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX BY EARLY EVENING.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE IMPRESSIVE SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 3000 J/KG IN WCNTRL OK TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 45 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS MATURE. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. SOME POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS CONGEAL ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG A DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR SE CO WHERE THE MODELS SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE SCENARIO ABOVE. THE GFS...NAM AND ETA-KF SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST. THE NAM INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT WITH THE GFS FOCUSING MORE ON A SEVERE THREAT IN ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX ON A WING OF WARM ADVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010

Soo maybe I shouldn't go to Clinton tomorrow? Or does that mean pretty much from okc west it might get rough?

Soo maybe I shouldn't go to Clinton tomorrow? Or does that mean pretty much from okc west it might get rough?

It means that the severe weather will start out in Western OK and slowly move east. The tornado threat should diminish a little once the storms enter Central OK. Hail and wind will still be a big problem.

It means that the severe weather will start out in Western OK and slowly move east. The tornado threat should diminish a little once the storms enter Central OK. Hail and wind will still be a big problem.

I wouldn't say that.

With the noon update from SPC for Day 2 outlook OKC is now in the moderate risk area. If we do not get storms in the okc metro tonight from the west or if we do get storms in okc early in the morning Wednesday and the atmosphere is able to recover ie the clouds clear out early then we could be in for some rough weather, I am predicting if the above happends we could see our second High Risk day this spring. Stay close to weather info tomorrow for sure Be safe!!

WEDNESDAY....
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AND WICHITA FALLS METRO AREAS. A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS TO THE EAST OF
THIS AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL ALLOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST
OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER...AND NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE BE
LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HELP GENERATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS.
THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT. LATER IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...DAMAGING
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN OK
INTO NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS EWD THROUGH MUCH
OF OK AND N TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE-AMPLITUDE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT THE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM SWRN KS INTO
SWRN OK OR NWRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE SURFACE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO SRN MS WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY LINE WILL
DIURNALLY SHARPEN FROM THE INTERSECTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT
OVER WRN OK SWD INTO THE NWRN/W-CNTRL TX.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/ ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SWRN KS SEWD INTO
OK...TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND WITHIN 40+ KT LLJ AXIS WHERE
WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY OWING TO CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED STORM COLD POOLS TO
REINFORCE SURFACE RIDGING...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR N
THE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT
AND E OF DRY LINE WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000-3000 J/KG.
HERE...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD FOSTER
SCATTERED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF
WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO N TX.

THE EWD MIGRATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAKS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS. HERE...THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH SEWD EXTENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO NRN LA.

Ominous signoff from TWC - "Tune in tomorrow because Oklahoma is gonna be Ground Zero."

I'm getting ready to go fill my car up. Batteries for the camera are charged....hopefully my buddy will be off work.

Day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1256 am cdt wed may 19 2010

valid 201200z - 211200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms across parts of the srn plains...ozarks and lower ms valley...

...srn plains/ozarks/lower ms valley...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move ewd across the srn plains thursday. East of the upper-level trough axis...a moderately to strongly unstable airmass should be in place with sfc dewpoints from 65 to 70 f from the srn plains ewd into the lower ms valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should be ongoing near the low-level jet in the ozarks and arklatex thursday morning. The nam and gfs are in agreement...increasing convective coverage by midday and organizing a line of thunderstorms in ern ok moving the line ewd into wrn ar during the afternoon. Eta-kf forecast soundings along this corridor at 21z show 35 to 45 kt of
0-6 km shear with mlcape values in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg range. This would support supercell development. However...rotating storms that develop could become embedded in a larger-scale convective line.

Although low-level shear profiles should support some tornadoes...damaging wind gusts may be the greater threat especially if the dominant storm mode ends up being linear during the afternoon. Uncertainty increases by thursday evening with the nam and gfs much different concerning the position of strongest instability. The gfs moves the instability axis ewd to the ms river while the nam develops an axis of moderate instability wwd in cntrl ok and north tx. If the nam scenario where to occur...then a threat for supercells would exist thursday evening in the srn plains where forecast soundings show strong vertical shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates. Severe storms will also be possible swd across east tx and nrn la where the nam and namkf show convective development in a moderately unstable airmass. Have extended the slight risk wwd across much of cntrl ok...ne tx and swd across nrn la to account for these two scenarios.

..broyles.. 05/19/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100519_1200_prt.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100519_1200_torn_prt.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100519_1200_hail_prt.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1probotlk_20100519_1200_wind_prt.gif


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

ADDED APPROXIMATE INITIATION TIME IN 4TH PARAGRAPH.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THESE AREAS...FROM ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS CO/WY EARLY TODAY AND THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACT ON A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM TX TO KS. PRECIPITATION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK AND KS WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS OK LATER THIS MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES OVER WRN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INVOF OK PANHANDLE AS DRYLINE SHARPENS AND SPREADS EAST FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE. BELT OF 40-50KT WLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40KT. DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG BY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECT WARM SECTOR STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN WRN OK...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NRN/CNTRL OK TO NRN TX/AR/LA. EFFECTIVE HELICITY IN THE RANGE OF 200-300 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LFC ACROSS CNTRL OK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

UNLIKE MAY 10...WEAKER FLOW REGIME RESULTS IN SLOWER STORM/BUNKERS CELL MOTION OF ENE AROUND 25 KT...AS OPPOSED TO ENE AT 50KT.
FURTHERMORE...INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAKER. NONETHELESS...A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE STRONG TORNADO SITUATION MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD ERN OK INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS A RELATIVELY LIMITED GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT FORECAST CERTAINTY CAN INCREASE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY...GREATER TORNADO PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK...MAY OCCUR IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGER AREA FROM SRN KS EXTENDING INTO TX...AR AND LA FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS CONVECTION CONGEALS OVER ERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING...LIFT AND SUSTAINED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD AR AND THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...ERN NC...
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS SERN NC...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW AROUND 40KT AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE. A COUPLE HAIL/WIND EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

Buckle down Oklahomies

So, am I "tornado prepared" if I put my camera in my front seat and have a Flip video camera in my purse? ;)

I keed, I keed.

We have been upgraded to a High Risk again with the metro in the bullseye....

Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

We have been upgraded to a High Risk again with the metro in the bullseye....

Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

Can someone translate this:

Tornado:

0.30 34919734 35379852 36169880 36429782 35979641 35309558
34599589 34439680 34919734
SIGN 35029848 35509940 36289961 36749896 36889805 36709687
36319597 35399498 34829502 34169533 33849577 33709628
33749697 33749747 34209807 35029848
&&

or decipher these locations? I can get some of them...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
ADM 35 SSE OKC 30 E CSM 45 S AVK 20 E END 30 NE CQB 30 S MKO 30 SSW
MLC 20 ENE ADM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
PNC 25 SE PNC 10 NNW TUL 10 NE MKO 20 NW RKR 25 SSW RKR 40 NW DEQ 40
W DEQ 25 NE PRX 30 WSW PRX 30 SW GYI 45 SE SPS 10 SW SPS 25 ESE LTS
20 NNW CSM 30 SE GAG 25 SSW AVK 20 NNW END 10 SW PNC.

Zoomed in graphics to give a better idea of where the primary risk area is.
Overall Risk:
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/51910-risk.png

Tornado Risk:
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/51910-risk-tor.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif

Zoomed in graphics to give a better idea of where the primary risk area is.
Overall Risk:
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/51910-risk.png

Tornado Risk:
http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/51910-risk-tor.png

In a word...crap. Looking at the sky in Norman, I'm not sure it's gonna wait til 4 PM.

Nothing on radar in central OK. Just some low, dark clouds with some light to medium precip.

Nothing yellow, orange, red, or purple yet. Nothing organized, nothing vertical.

I wouldn't say that.

Yes, I really think you can say that if you're NOT in a top 10 county for number of tornadoes over the years, but live in a county to the west or southwest of them which is not a top ten tornado county. Payne County is a good example of the latter. Oklahoma county, though, is a top 10 county for number of tornadoes. And so as it works out, probably no Payne County towns have been hit by a tornado since 1990, while since then towns in Oklahoma County have been hit multiple times.

BrettL's point made:

"It means that the severe weather will start out in Western OK and slowly move east. The tornado threat should diminish a little once the storms enter Central OK. Hail and wind will still be a big problem."

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0623.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND EXTREME NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191822Z - 192015Z

MID-LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS WAS BEGINNING
TO MIGRATE INTO ERN OK AND ACCELERATED COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z VSBL SATL ALREADY SHOWS
EVIDENCE OF TCU INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN HEMPHILL/WHEELER
COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL AND MAY MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE
MID-LATE AFTN/EVENING DOWNSTREAM.

18Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VERY NEAR I-40 WITH A
WRMFNT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORMAN TO SERN OK.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SEEMINGLY HAS EVOLVED AND WAS LOCATED A COUPLE
ROWS OF COUNTIES W OF I-44...WELL-AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE W OF
THIS FEATURE...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING AND STRATUS WAS ERODING TO
THE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT EL RENO WWD TO THE STATE
LINE.

AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN...EXPECT THAT THE SFC-H85
FLOW WILL BACK SOMEWHAT AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION IN THE 19-21Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS EVOLVING FROM CURRENT BUILD-UPS ENTERING WCNTRL OK.
OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR EVEN PERHAPS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM OKC METRO WWD ALONG/JUST N OF I-40 AFTER
21Z. MATURE STORMS WILL TRACK ROUGHLY 250/30 KTS.

INGREDIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES FROM N OF KCSM ESE THROUGH KOKC METRO IN THE 21Z-02Z AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER ESE INTO ECNTRL OK BY MID-EVENING. HERE...0-1KM
SRH WILL GENERALLY BE 250-300 M2/S2 AMIDST LOW LCL/S AND A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR DISCRETE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 05/19/2010

Will post the watch when it is available. Updates for the rest of the night here will be sparse as I'll be on LiveWire. Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (May 19) | Page 132 | Liveblog live blogging (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Live_Wire_--_KOCOcom_Breaking_News_Weather_May_17)

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
tornado watch outline update for wt 190
nws storm prediction center norman ok
205 pm cdt wed may 19 2010

tornado watch 190 is in effect until 1000 pm cdt for the
following locations

okc005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-037-039-043-045-
049-051-061-063-069-073-075-077-081-083-087-091-093-095-099-101-
107-109-111-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-149-153-200300-
/o.new.kwns.to.a.0190.100519t1905z-100520t0300z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

atoka beckham blaine
bryan caddo canadian
carter choctaw cleveland
coal comanche creek
custer dewey ellis
garvin grady haskell
hughes johnston kingfisher
kiowa latimer lincoln
logan major marshall
mcclain mcintosh murray
muskogee okfuskee oklahoma
okmulgee payne pittsburg
pontotoc pottawatomie pushmataha
roger mills seminole stephens
wa****a woodward


attn...wfo...oun...tsa...

Funny how wash.ita got sensored hehe

Tornado watch probabilities for wt 0190
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0213 pm cdt wed may 19 2010

wt 0190 pds
probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : >95%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : 60%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 80%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 30%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : >95%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 70%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : >95%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 3.5
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 550
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 26030
particularly dangerous situation : Yes

Usually it is open, but right now it is in moderation to control the posting flow. There is over 1,000 visitors right now and because of the panic, everyone is going to be posting a flood. If your post is good, it will be approved. It may be missed, because Ryan is busy multitasking.

Basically, go there and shut up. Watch all the updates. Don't really add more to it unless you have something important to say.

venture, I got a couple of questions for you that I've been wondering all afternoon.

1. What is a good estimate on the number of storm chasers / spotters that were spread across the state today?

2. Why is it that tornadoes and hook echos form on the south side of a storm? Is it the coriolis effect?

I think that is where the inflow enter the storm from the south/southwest.

David, I got a question for you. Can a storm's outflow become another storm's inflow?

When I went to clinton during that storm I counted 26 different states from ME and MA to CA and WA... prolly around 2-300 storm vehicles... that was a crazy day, we had clear skies but looking east it was gnarly

I don't think the storm chasers got too crazy in or near Stillwater as this video with a brief shot of highway 51 suggests. The tornado shown, about 5 mi. west of Stillwater, was possibly at the time tearing up a mobile home near Range Rd. and McElroy, fortunately, not occupied at the time. Interesting how a strong gust of wind accompanies the touchdown of the tornado.

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Slight Risk today...cleaned up the outlook to focus mainly on our setup.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA....MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM ND AND MN SWD TO WEST TX...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE STRONG POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN STATES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TAKING THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
75-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW OVER NERN MT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT
AND DRIVES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING ALMOST DUE
NORTH FROM NERN CO TO WRN ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEB PNHDL TO ERN SD TO CNTRL
MN...WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE REST OF SD AND INTO ND BY
EVENING. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST FROM ERN
CO/NM THIS MORNING...INTO KS AND NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN PERHAPS SURGING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS LATER TODAY AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH.

FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER DUE TO LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE WILL TAKE FORM FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT 500MB...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SHOREWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.


...SRN PLAINS...
STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM OK/TX PNHDLS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOME OF THIS AREA AND...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY
LINE...A FEW TO SEVERAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/OK.
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0754 am cdt tue may 25 2010

valid 251300z - 261200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over northern maine...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from lake superior south across
the upper ms valley and southwestward to southeast co and the
southern high plains...

...synopsis...
A complex upper air flow regime exists across the lower 48 this
morning as an intense occluded cyclone tracks north from the nrn
plains to the canadian prairie provinces...and an expansive
anticyclone covers the great lakes and northeast. South of the upper
high...a large upper low with a number of embedded smaller-scale
vortices was drifting wwd toward the southeast u.s.
Coast. To the north...a short wave trough and associated decaying
mcs were cresting the ridge axis in eastern canada.

Despite the highly amplified pattern...mid level winds are aob 40kt
over much of the conus. The exceptions being a 80kt sly jet streak
on the ern flank of the occluded cyclone over the nrn plains...and a
belt of modest 40-50kt flow within the base of the larger scale
trough across the west.

At the surface...an ill-defined synoptic frontal zone associated
with the occluded low was fragmented by numerous convective outflows
from mn/ia to ks. A number of other convective outflow boundaries
exist south of the front...over ok and tx. Abundant boundary layer
moisture remains in place along the decaying frontal zone...and
amidst the various outflows and weakening convective systems in ok
and tx.

...upper ms valley...
As the occluded low lifts into canada and influence of the
anticyclone to the east diminishes...this area may undergo weak
height falls. Given the proximity of residual frontal zone and
outflow boundaries...coupled with potential for strong
destabilization and weak convective inhibition...expect
thunderstorms to increase. Given generally weak flow aloft...bulk
shear will not be particularly supportive of sustained or
well-organized updrafts. However...magnitude of instability and
focusing potential of the front and other boundaries suggests that
multicell activity will increase along with an increasing chance for
some hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

...srn plains to sern co...
There is a large amount of uncertainty about convective development
and mode across this area today. Most guidance has not done well
depicting the currently decaying and poorly organized mcs over
ks/ok. Outflow and debris cloudiness from this convection will
likely play a role in new storm development in a very unstable but
generally weakly sheared flow regime.

Some synoptic scale support for more widespread development may
occur across the high plains later this afternoon when a subtle
short wave trough...evident on water vapor imagery across four
corners area attm...moves newd. Lift with this feature...coupled
with mixing along the dry line near the nm/tx border should be
adequate for thunderstorm development these areas and east across
west tx and north into parts of ks/co. Additional storm development
appears possible as air mass recovers/destabilizes invof residual
front in ks. Pockets of stronger effective shear will marginally
support supercell storms with large hail and wind and perhaps a
tornado or two. Most of this activity will tend to die off several
hours after sunset.

Moist post-frontal upslope flow and aforementioned weak short wave
may be sufficient for high plains storms to form within weak to
modest instability across sern co. Shear in these areas will be a
bit more favorable for storm rotation with some hail/wind and
perhaps a tornado or two.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
SRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING
PORTIONS CONTINUING SWD THROUGH KS INTO ERN NM WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STALL. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN STATES.

...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK AND KS...

DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
MODEST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN NM. STRONGER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL WITH GENERALLY 20-30 KT MID-UPPER
FLOW NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. MULTICELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT MODE...BUT SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH ABOUT MID
EVENING.

Opinion | OKG Scene.com (http://www.okgazette.com/p/12738/Default.aspx)

If you wish to discuss issues with media reporting of facts on stories, this isn't the thread to do it. Yes the weather was a contributor to those reports, but you are wanting to address something completely different by posting an Opinion article on the accuracy of news reporting. Please keep this thread for general weather or forecast questions only as your link is centered around something that has no place here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY SUNDAY RESULTING IN DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE. A JET
STREAK IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD FROM BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO MN AND
SRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING
PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH KS INTO ERN NM WHERE
IT WILL LIKELY STALL. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN
STATES.

...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK AND KS...

DEWPOINTS FROM 60-65F WILL REMAIN IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM KS
SWD INTO OK WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF TX AND NM. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM SRN KS INTO OK WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AND SRN KS AND
WITHIN THE MODEST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN NM. STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT ATTENDING NRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL WITH
GENERALLY 15-25 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 25-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
ROBUST...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=127511 1694

Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for north central and some of central Oklahoma until midnight:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png