View Full Version : May '10 Weather Discussion



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Insider
05-10-2010, 02:54 PM
where is the dry line at right now????

The dryline appears to be in far western oklahoma...

FritterGirl
05-10-2010, 03:11 PM
For those on twitter, you may be interested in following:

@ounwcm - straight out of Norman's NOAA

@TWCBreaking (the Weather Channel)

By all appearances, most activity in N Oklahoma, Kansas right now. According to @TWCBreaking "Main Event" is still ahead. Guess that means us.

Trying to decide whether to try and head up to Edmond during rush hour when some of this is expected to hit, or bunker down downtown in an underground parking garage.

jstanthrnme
05-10-2010, 04:05 PM
Storms are now forming SW of OKC in Caddo County.

PennyQuilts
05-10-2010, 04:11 PM
I set up my birdcam facing west. If the dog stays calm, I may have to go sit on the front porch. We are east of Mustang. Don't want it sneaking up on us.

Thunder
05-10-2010, 04:12 PM
Visit the KOCO LiveWire (Today's Edition) and if you want to post, send an email to Ryan@KOCO.com for an invite (We had a troublemaker earlier).

BigBadBen
05-10-2010, 04:48 PM
is there a local radio station that breaks in to play any of the meteorologist coverage?

Im going to be in my truck & wouldnt mind listening to some coverage.

Dustin
05-10-2010, 05:13 PM
If anybody in okc is wondering where they can go to take cover, the old Fleming headquarters in Nichols hills has a great underground garage with lots of space. (we are here right now). It's located on 63 rd and Penn. :)

PennyQuilts
05-10-2010, 05:30 PM
Out East of Mustang it seems to have passed. Was impressive when it went by.

Bunty
05-10-2010, 05:40 PM
is there a local radio station that breaks in to play any of the meteorologist coverage?

Im going to be in my truck & wouldnt mind listening to some coverage.

Try 96.1 FM

Hammondjam
05-10-2010, 06:55 PM
The tornado that hit south of the OU campus was the first twister to hit here since I've lived here. Kinda blows the old myth about Norman being safe from a tornado. In a typical Okie fashion, I was outside, with a beer, watching the clouds with Chopper 4 hovering overhead.

Seriously, I hope nobody got hurt but I don't know how this could be true, considering the damage. I think a donation at OBI will be on my agenda this week.

SkyWestOKC
05-10-2010, 07:38 PM
It wasn't cool chasing it from Yukon into the 119th/Penn area. Hook echo was right over my house, glad nothing dropped and got my stuff. When I got home, however, I found a softball sized hail hole in my skylight.....
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-sjc1/hs617.snc3/32456_101966176516090_100001081240169_15896_217289 3_n.jpg
My friend in Moore had his truck window broken out, softball sized.

http://hphotos-snc3.fbcdn.net/hs565.snc3/30886_1426699994910_1455104849_31115258_6785602_n. jpg
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs525.ash1/30886_1426698754879_1455104849_31115257_332841_n.j pg

Here's some hailstones I found in my yard when I got home.

http://hphotos-sjc1.fbcdn.net/hs617.snc3/32456_101966193182755_100001081240169_15897_705902 1_n.jpg

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs557.ash1/32456_101966223182752_100001081240169_15898_793103 1_n.jpg

venture
05-10-2010, 10:08 PM
Sorry for being MIA today. Livewire took control of my life. haha

Will do a full run down on what to expect the rest of this week. As for here. Well last year it went a mile north, this year a mile south. So next year I get my new roof! lol

Didn't have my camera on me, but went outside when the sirens blew (of course...I know, bad bad)...saw things wrap up and roommate asked what that stuff was flying around and well...

venture
05-11-2010, 02:37 AM
Rough outlook for most of the rest of the month. Usual disclaimers apply. I'm not going to get very detailed since I'm tired. :-P

Near Term
Three more slight risk days, with difference twists.

5/11/2010 - Today
Retreating warm front and dryline resetting back to the wests will provide for some afternoon possibilities while destabilization occurs. While storm modes should be much tamer than today, any storm that does form will likely go severe with the energy available. Few things to consider for today will include early cloud cover, exact positioning of boundaries, cap strength, and just the overall quality of moisture return and destabilization. See graphic for risk area, which I will say is currently a bit different than SPC or OUN (I think Central sections do warrant to be included from the way it looks).

5/12/2010 - Wednesday
Higher risk day than Today, but not as high as Monday. Most of the energy of the storm system should be well north of Oklahoma. However, there is the potential for some higher end severe weather in the state considering the environment that will be present. Do not expect an outbreak by any sense, but it could be the 2nd busiest day of the week.

5/13 and 5/14 - No severe weather expected.

5/15/2010 - Friday
Potential for some severe weather on Friday. This looks kinda questionable still. However, I'm going to put it out there as something to watch.

Long Term

5/17/2010 - No severe weather expected. Some storms are possible.
5/18/2010 - Should be quiet, maybe some stronger storms in far SW OK near the TX Panhandle.
5/19/2010 - No severe weather expected.
5/20/2010 - Some stronger storms possible.
5/21/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/22/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/23/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/24/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/25/2010 - Quiet
5/26/2010 - Quiet

Thunder
05-11-2010, 02:06 PM
Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (May 11) | TORNADO EMERGENCY (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Live_Wire_--_KOCOcom_Breaking_News_Weather_May_11)

Most everything will be on there. David will be on there. Many experts will be on there. Streaming videos, etc.

We have another risk today and even greater for tomorrow.

westsidesooner
05-11-2010, 02:16 PM
:congrats: :congrats: To all the forecasters that got this system forecasted correctly...with days of warning time, its no doubt with the speed ot the storms and the intensity that they probably saved lives yesterday

Hope everyone here made it through the day without any injuries or damage to property, (sorry about the skylight skywest). We lucked out on the west side again, the two supercells moving up from the southwest split Bethany, one going north of us (Yukon---Memorial and May) and the other making the hard right and heading across the south metro. We only got about quarter size hail here. I did get practice at cleaning out the closet in a hurry though!!! I wanted to get some pix but the trees in my neighborhood obscure any kind of a view. Grrrr. I'm sure the storms were impressive after they passed and were backlit.

My initial target of Enid would have been a good pick if I had been able to get out and chase......its frustrating to miss an opp. to shoot a multi-vortex tornado like the one near Wakita.

It never ceases to amaze me (weather). Yesterday was an incrediblly interesting day from a science point of view with all different shapes and types of tornadoes. From the waterspouts and mini-vorticies just a few yards wide to the huge wedge tornadoes to the 10 mile+ wide rotating supercells. The strom that moved through the south metro looked like the entire meso was on the ground (in Norman) before finally forming into what would become the monster supercell that hauled through Norman and down I-40 to the Arkansas border.....it could have been much worse than it was....thats one of the most impresive circulations I've seen in awhile. The speed of the upper low responsible was reaally impressive....it was really hauling
Next few days could be interesting....and thankfully a little slower and calmer (unless you're right under whatever does form)

I sure hope V2 got some useful data....though I doubt it.

Venture, (BTW....glad to hear you missed out on the damage again...you seem to be some kinda tornado magnet) do you think they'll upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk for any of the state?????

Thunder
05-11-2010, 02:34 PM
Ryan on KOCO quoted from the NWS press conference that we all watched LIVE online that the person from NWS was saying "Wednesday is looking a lot like Monday."

Yeah, we're not done yet. More chaos is coming!

westsidesooner
05-11-2010, 02:40 PM
I forgot to mention that video of the white van on hwy 9......that was incredible footage. Can you imagine what they were thinking when their van took off?

Insider
05-11-2010, 03:52 PM
I forgot to mention that video of the white van on hwy 9......that was incredible footage. Can you imagine what they were thinking when their van took off?

That video is from about 0.25 miles from my home! I was at work on the phone with my wife who was at home hunkered in the closet. I managed to keep her side tracked until after it passed. It was really nerve racking to know that it was that close to her and there was nothing I could do but watch...

PennyQuilts
05-11-2010, 04:40 PM
I forgot to mention that video of the white van on hwy 9......that was incredible footage. Can you imagine what they were thinking when their van took off?

No, but I can easily imagine what they were SAYING!

blangtang
05-11-2010, 06:05 PM
it might have been the tv weather channel i was watching, but it seemed the norman hiway 9 tornado came up real sudden, or maybe it was the tv people were all focused on the thing going thru moore, it was pretty sudden living here near downtown norman. right when they showed the chopper footage of the twister on highway nine, 2 seconds later the power went out. that was a bit of a creepy feeling.

hardly got any rain at my place

venture
05-11-2010, 10:51 PM
It did spin up pretty fast. Watched the rotating wall cloud approach the house and the surface wind was pretty good. Watched a cone area form looking down and noticed the rotating debris cloud behind some houses on the south side of the subdivision. So I would definitely say it spun up fast. Would also I that I probably shouldn't have been outside at that time incase it dropped a little further north. LOL

venture
05-12-2010, 12:12 PM
Public information statement
national weather service norman ok
1150 am cdt wed may 12 2010

...preliminary damage survey results from may 10th outbreak...

As a result of the tornadic supercells that crossed through central oklahoma on may 10 2010...we received many tornado reports and damage reports. Therefore...six separate damage survey teams were deployed tuesday to assess the damage. Here are some preliminary results.

Remember that this information is subject to change pending further investigation. We are still investigating other damage areas and it will take some time to compile the details of each storm.

Special thanks go to volunteers from the national severe storms laboratory...vortex 2...warning decision training branch...the storm prediction center...and the ou school of meteorology for their assistance in the numerous damage surveys required. Also thanks to the emergency managers and storm spotters and chasers around oklahoma who provided invaluable information both during and after the event.


...northern kay county /two tornado tracks/...

No specific information is available for these tornadoes yet. Two parallel tornado tracks were found...and these were thought to be from the same parent thunderstorm. One crossed into kansas near interstate 35...and the other paralleled that track about two miles to the south. Both of these tracks extended west into grant county...but the survey team did not have time to assess that section of the track.

The portion of the northern storm track in kay county achieved a maximum rating of ef-3. 5 miles northwest of braman...a 3 story
house was destroyed with this tornado. The portion of the southern storm track in kay county achieved a maximum rating of ef-1. More information will become available about these two tornadoes in subsequent days.


...moore to harrah tornado...

Rating: Ef-3
max width: 1/2 to 3/4 miles
path length: Around 23 miles
begin point: About 3.6 ssw moore
end point: About 1.9 s harrah

the tornado began somewhere just west of interstate 35 and indian hills road and moved to the northeast. A broad area of primarily tree damage was noted through most of the track in moore...between the interstate and stanley draper lake. The damage path became more focused and intense after the tornado had passed over stanley draper lake. Areas of ef-2 to ef-3 damage were noted from near hiwassee road and se 89th through most of the remainder of the track. Near interstate 40...the tornado impacted several businesses...with ef-3 damage noted at a loves gas station and ef-2 damage across the street to the sonic restaurant.


...northern pottawatomie county...

Rating: Ef-3
max width: 1/2 mile
path length: Around 9 miles
begin point: About 4.7 nnw pink
end point: About 5.0 nw shawnee

this tornado developed less than a mile inside of the pottawatomie county border and moved northeast...lifting just before it reached interstate 40. Significant damage was observed along the path. Several homes were destroyed except for one or two interior walls. Some trees were debarked. Metal poles from a barn...embedded in concrete...were ripped out of the ground with the concrete still attached. A train box car was rolled about 300 yards.


...norman to little axe to pink tornado...

Rating: Ef-3
max width: 1/2 mile
path length: At least 16 miles
begin point: About 3.2 s norman
end point: Not yet assessed

this tornado damage path is not yet completely surveyed. The survey team had to stop the survey just west of the cleveland-pottawatomie county border. At this time...it appears as though this damage path is separate from the damage path that began near tecumseh. This tornado developed very close to the national weather center. Damage intensity increased gradually along the length of the path. The most severe damage was noted from near the little axe school to the county line. In the clear damage path...trees were stripped of some bark and branches. Large objects were thrown considerable distances...including some concrete pillars and metal bleachers near the little axe school that were tossed or rolled several hundred yards. Some appliances were also lofted as a dryer was found to have settled about 50 feet up in a tree. There was also considerable structural damage...as some foundation homes were mostly destroyed. This tornado also crossed lake thunderbird and damaged a marina with about 300 boats.


...other norman tornado...

Rating: Ef-1
max width: Not yet assessed
path length: Around 1.5 miles
begin point: About 3.6 s norman
end point: About 3.6 se norman

a gap in damage was noted to the south of the main damage path closer to highway 9. Another tornado damage path was found further to the south. This separate tornado was also corroborated by a few independent eyewitnesses. Minor damage to homes and tree damage was noted along this parallel tornado track.


...tornado that merged east of lake thunderbird...

Rating: Ef-2
max width: 1/4 mile
path length: About 7 miles
begin point: About 8.5 ene noble
end point: About 2.7 sw pink

another tornado developed in central cleveland county...and the damage path continued northeast until it was found to merge with the primary tornado track that had crossed lake thunderbird. In addition to tree damage...a cell tower was mangled and downed...and the country boy local store along highway 9 received some structural damage. Near this store...and towards the merger point...the structural damage and tree damage were supportive of an ef-2 rating.


...tecumseh to cromwell and points east tornado...

Rating: Ef-3
max width: 3/4 to 1 mile
path length: At least 30 miles only counting nws norman portion
begin point: About 2.8 wsw tecumseh
end point: Continued into nws tulsa area about 0.8 e cromwell

this long track tornado moved from pottawatomie county into seminole county...and then crossed into okfuskee county which is in the nws tulsa county warning area. The tornado caused significant damage along the entire track...with no notable gaps in damage along the length of the path surveyed. At times...the damage field widened to about 3/4 of a mile wide...possibly up to 1 mile wide. The most intense damage seemed to be just north and northeast of earlsboro near the pottawatomie-seminole county border. It was in this location that a 5 bedroom...2 story foundation house was destroyed except for several interior walls near the bathroom. In this same vicinity...a pickup truck appeared to have been lofted for about 1/4 mile...and a semi trailer was rolled or lofted for a few hundred yards. Both of these large missiles were drawn from the northern half of the damage path towards the center. A little further east...7 high tension towers were downed. Along the entire path...tree damage was noted...and a few trees were debarked and stripped of all their branches.


...central carter county...

Rating: Ef-3
max width: 400 yards
path length: 4.9 miles
begin point: About 6.0 nnw lone grove
end point: About 7.0 n lone grove

photographs from area residents indicate this was a wedge tornado. At least four mobile homes and 1 foundation home were destroyed. The foundation home had nearly all exterior walls removed with only interior walls remaining. Other homes and outbuildings in the area sustained minor to moderate damage. Widespread tree and power line damage was noted along the length of the track...and some high tension lines were downed near the area of most intense damage.


...eastern love county...

Rating: Ef-1
max width: 150 to 200 yards
path length: Around 2 miles
begin point: About 5.1 ene marietta
end point: About 7.3 ene marietta

lots of tree damage noted along the track. Near the beginning of the path a local store was damaged...and this damage was rated ef-1. Other outbuildings along the track were damaged. Surveyors followed the track as far as they could as the path ended near the red river. Several independent eyewitness reports suggested that two tornadoes occurred about 10 minutes apart...in the same damage path in this area. We continue to investigate that theory...and in the meantime the damage will be classified as one tornado.

mugofbeer
05-12-2010, 12:52 PM
You're great, Venture. Thanks for the fascinating information!

mugofbeer
05-12-2010, 12:59 PM
Line of storms starting to fill in from Wichita to Altus.....

bandnerd
05-12-2010, 02:23 PM
My poor mom is down in Love county. I think that's the first tornado since the one when I was in 8th grade that tore up the Uniroyal plant in Ardmore. I called her when they were under the warning, and could hear the sirens over the phone (glad to know they are loud and close!).

I called after and she said she had been hiding in the closet, and that she is "too old for this sh!t." We almost never got tornadoes down by the river. This was a rare occurance.

Thunder
05-12-2010, 02:52 PM
Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (May 12) | TORNADO EMERGENCY (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Live_Wire_--_KOCOcom_Breaking_News_Weather_May_12)

We are all on the LiveWire bracing for another Tornado Emergency day.

sacolton
05-12-2010, 03:55 PM
It's coming!!!

Thunder
05-12-2010, 04:08 PM
There is streaming videos on the LiveWire. Chaser on the storm at the OK/KS border producing a tornado and Sky 5 down southwest near Altus covering a potential tornado storm racing 50+ mph up toward the metro!

OKCisOK4me
05-12-2010, 04:25 PM
Whoever lives in the rural areas between Waynoka & Freedom is gettin a boat load of rain for the last 30 minutes! I want to see a rain gauge report tonight on one of the local stations.

OKCisOK4me
05-12-2010, 08:38 PM
Can anyone, not on KOCO's Live Wire, say why no storms are forming south of the big storm on I-40?

Peach fuzz
05-12-2010, 11:04 PM
Wow I chose the wrong night to go back home to Clinton... watched a funnel yesterday driving to yukon and this one tonight formed right over the house. I've never had that feeling before standing right under a developing tornado... the air was very still but it was whirling all around us. I cant even begin to describe the feeling of energy... it was so intense I had know clue what to think of it haha

OKCisOK4me
05-13-2010, 12:25 AM
Wow I chose the wrong night to go back home to Clinton... watched a funnel yesterday driving to yukon and this one tonight formed right over the house. I've never had that feeling before standing right under a developing tornado... the air was very still but it was whirling all around us. I cant even begin to describe the feeling of energy... it was so intense I had know clue what to think of it haha

It was, technically, a 7 or 8 mile wide rotating base... Last time I saw something like that was May 8th, 2003, in Edmond...

Thunder
05-13-2010, 02:00 AM
Can anyone, not on KOCO's Live Wire, say why no storms are forming south of the big storm on I-40?

No clue. It is a mystery. Storms that kept firing up down there kept dying after they passed Lawton. If they didn't die, those would've been a major tornado potentials.

Now, there is some storms that had fired up down there and getting bigger. On their way here...

venture
05-13-2010, 02:02 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0538.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 130659Z - 130730Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN OK/NW TX AND TRACK NEWD INTO CENTRAL OK EARLY
THIS MORNING. A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC
AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..PETERS.. 05/13/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...

venture
05-13-2010, 02:03 AM
Ulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 162
nws storm prediction center norman ok
205 am cdt thu may 13 2010

severe thunderstorm watch 162 is in effect until 600 am cdt
for the following locations

okc015-019-027-031-033-049-051-063-067-081-087-099-109-123-125-
133-137-131100-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0162.100513t0705z-100513t1100z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

caddo carter cleveland
comanche cotton garvin
grady hughes jefferson
lincoln mcclain murray
oklahoma pontotoc pottawatomie
seminole stephens


txc077-131100-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0162.100513t0705z-100513t1100z/

tx
. Texas counties included are

clay


attn...wfo...oun...

venture
05-13-2010, 02:08 AM
Severe thunderstorm watch probabilities for ws 0162 nws storm prediction center norman ok
0203 am cdt thu may 13 2010

ws 0162
probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : 20%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : 05%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 30%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 30%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 30%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 30%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 70%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.0
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 24045
particularly dangerous situation : No

OKCisOK4me
05-13-2010, 02:49 AM
Nevermind about my earlier post...

sacolton
05-14-2010, 01:57 PM
Something big is brewing south of Ardmore! WHAT'S HAPPENING?!!!

venture
05-14-2010, 03:16 PM
Two tornadoes were upgraded to EF-4s from the May 10th outbreak.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20100510

Maps from NWS OUN:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20100510/maps/northoktracks.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20100510/maps/centoktracks.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20100510/maps/southoktracks.jpg

venture
05-16-2010, 10:47 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE S CNTRL
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E
PACIFIC FURTHER AMPLIFIES AND ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT OFF THE W CST
EARLY MON. FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL MOVE ENE FROM WRN TN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE A DIFFUSE FRONT PERSISTS IN ITS WAKE FROM NRN AR W/NW
TO THE SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS.

...SRN PLNS INTO SRN OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
WHILE FLOW IN MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...A 30-40 KT WLY
MID LVL JET WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER OK AND N TX ON SRN SIDE OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE CNTRL PLNS UPR LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLY COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 15 C AT
500 MB/. COUPLED WITH PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THAT DEEP FLOW OVER REGION REMAIN CYCLONIC
NATURE THROUGH THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM THE CNTRL/CNTRL RCKYS. WEAK LOW LVL FLOW
SURMOUNTED BY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS...WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR HAIL. FARTHER S...OTHER
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY REDEVELOP/EVOLVE FROM ONGOING
CLUSTER NOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND. AVAILABILITY OF RICH MOISTURE IN
THIS REGION MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR TO YIELD A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE SVR THREAT
THROUGHOUT THE S CNTRL STATES SHOULD DIMINISH ...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VANISH...WITH SUNSET.

venture
05-16-2010, 12:39 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0581.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161733Z - 161830Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NWRN OK THEN
MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A SW TO NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY
AHEAD OF A MCV LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MEDICINE LODGE KS. ALTHOUGH WV
IMAGERY WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE...A SUBTLE VORT
MAX/UPPER TROUGHING NOTED IN ERN CO WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW MORE
FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS...AND AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1750 TO 2000 J/KG
APPEAR LIKELY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE HEATING
LEADING TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

venture
05-16-2010, 01:37 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0176_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LITTLE
ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS NOW MDTLY
UNSTABLE BECOMES VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 30-35KT OF SHEAR...STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND
THEN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE AS STORMS GROW
UPSCALE.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

WS 0176
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

westsidesooner
05-16-2010, 02:40 PM
The Okeene police dept. reported a tornado on the ground south of town, along with baseball to softball size hail. With the storm motion being southest this may be effecting the west and north metro in the next hour. Heads up everyone!!!!

adaniel
05-16-2010, 04:14 PM
If anyone is curious, we just had a ridonkulous hailstorm...at least golf-to-tennis ball sized hail....about 15 minutes ago at NW Expressway and Council. At least one windshield is broken.

Stay safe everyone.

SkyWestOKC
05-16-2010, 04:39 PM
I'm laughing my ass off at how Mike Morgasm is treating this thing. No argument that it has created damage, it was a powerful storm. He just mentioned it weakened a little.

A Little? The VIL has reduced from severe to moderate in the past 20 minutes. (meaning updrafts are being weakened a ton = smaller hail) The tops of the storm clouds have reduced 8,000 feet over the past 30 minutes or so. A gust front has detached from the storm indicating that the storm is collapsing. Yet he goes on to say this storm is barely weakening?

I keep telling my family to not pay attention to this guy, but, whatever.

venture
05-16-2010, 04:49 PM
Pay more attention to dbz when a storm is this close to the radar site. VIL and echo tops are worthless when a storm is nearly on top of the radar...especially echo tops.

SkyWestOKC
05-16-2010, 04:57 PM
He's still too dramatic for me. He is making it sound like hellfire and brimstone will be shooting out of this storm.

Peach fuzz
05-16-2010, 05:20 PM
Better than Mr. Wont move his ass off the screen because it's not like we don't know who is the last 30 years and I can't see whats going on England. KOCO keep it classy.

jn1780
05-16-2010, 05:37 PM
I think Mike Morgan wins the Drama Queen award. He made a bigger deal about the hail than he did the tornados last monday.

venture
05-16-2010, 05:52 PM
I think we are lucky no reports of injuries and such have occurred with baseballs falling in the city, especially for those outside that weren't paying attention.

mugofbeer
05-16-2010, 11:42 PM
Seems like some of the earlier posts this afternoon might want to rethink their comments a little. This was one bad-*** storm. One of the worst I've seen that was non-tornadic.

venture
05-17-2010, 01:02 AM
Risk outlook the next few days going by the 00Z GFS.

5/18 - Storms possible early as a storm complex comes out of KS. Some severe.
5/19 - Risk of severe weather across most of the state.
5/20 - Storm complex possible across Northern OK early. Risk of storms southern OK towards evening.
5/21 - Risk of storms across most of OK, some severe.
5/22 - Risk of storms across most of OK except for far eastern OK - some severe.
5/23 - Risk of storms across most of OK except for far NW, some severe.

venture
05-17-2010, 03:02 AM
Wednesday may be a fairly active day with a risk for strong tornadoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IN THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
QUICKLY NWD INTO NORTH TX AND OK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION CLEARS DURING THE LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
3000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A 35 TO 45 KT JET MAX NEAR
850 MB IN CNTRL OK. THIS JET SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO THREAT
POSSIBLE FROM THE JET CENTER WWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE 30 PERCENT AND
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOURS HAVE BEEN ADDED. SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NW AND WCNTRL TX EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR ERN CO WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
INVOLVE THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENDS UP BEING SLOWER THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THE
DRYLINE IS SETUP FURTHER WEST...THE WRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WOULD BE FAVORED.

..BROYLES.. 05/17/2010

Thunder
05-17-2010, 07:37 AM
Is that hail or tornado %?

Yeah, a poster on here rude about Mike need to reevaluate himself. That was a monster hail producer and I was on my way to work where streets was rapidly flooded.

Peach fuzz
05-17-2010, 10:16 AM
I guess we're just getting spoiled because weather or not we like our weather-men, each of them are probably in the top 10 nationally and they do a damned good job at it.

Thunder
05-17-2010, 10:18 AM
I guess we're just getting spoiled because weather or not we like our weather-men (and women), each of them are probably in the top 10 nationally and they do a damned good job at it.

(The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 2 characters.)

Charlie40
05-17-2010, 11:11 AM
A woman takes a backseat to a man when it comes to weatherforcating. for a regular run of the mill weatherforcast they are fine, but when the big storms roll in they need to sit down and let the men do the forcasting and plotting,chaseing etc.

Andrew4OU
05-17-2010, 04:20 PM
A woman takes a backseat to a man when it comes to weatherforcating. for a regular run of the mill weatherforcast they are fine, but when the big storms roll in they need to sit down and let the men do the forcasting and plotting,chaseing etc.

Wow.

silvergrove
05-17-2010, 04:30 PM
I thought this was a fascinating image of the hailstorm that tracked through the city yesterday:

http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/replicate/EXID39237/images/fxc_Weather_in_Review.jpg

PennyQuilts
05-17-2010, 04:32 PM
That is a neat map. It completely missed us, blessedly. I feel bad for the ones who were hit.