It would appear so, but that doesn't mean lows in the 30s are gone.




Friday April 2nd - Severe Storms. Still a long way out, but this could be a potential elevated risk day. Lows/Highs in the upper 60s.

.

Been watching this also. Itchin' to go for a real spring chase.

Been watching this also. Itchin' to go for a real spring chase.

It's like waiting for Christmas morning as a kid. I'm so ready to get out and see some towers going up!!!!

Oh I know, it's driving me nuts. I guess I'll just have to watch people make fools of themselves in the political section until then.... lol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE WED AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF W CNTRL/NW AND N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS CURRENTLY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA...WITH A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM
IT AND LIFTING WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OTHER IS STILL DIGGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...AND PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST.

THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS ALREADY SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF A SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND SREF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
INDICATING PROBABLE ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE BAJA IMPULSE...ON DESTABILIZATION. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING GULF MOISTURE MAY BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING SEEMS
PROBABLE...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING DRY LINE STRUCTURE...BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIDED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THIS IS EXPECTED INITIATE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE 24/21-23Z TIME. RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY MINIMIZE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER... WEAKENING TRENDS ARE
ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTION SPREADS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DRY
LINE...AND THE PRE-DRY LINE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

..KERR.. 03/23/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO W TX BY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD
OUT OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO E TX...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS. AT THE SURFACE...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR I-35 IN OK INTO W
CNTRL TX BY 00Z. THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN OK.

...NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
W CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN -18C WILL EXIST NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND EVEN THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING SHOW
MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES
ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WHILE STRATUS WILL
LIMIT HEATING ACROSS SRN TX BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FROM SW TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK.
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GIVEN
SUCH COOL MID LEVELS...TIME OF DAY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...BUT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. MULTICELLS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL...ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NWRN TX...ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD...AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST.

...NERN TX LATE...
A 30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER ERN TX THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS E TX INTO SW AR AND NWRN LA BY THU
MORNING...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...HAIL...AND/OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 03/24/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MORNING ANALYSES AND MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECASTS
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER
SRN CO/NRN NM WILL PROGRESS STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH GRADUALLY TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN OK THIS
MORNING /ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MO/SERN KS INTO W-CENTRAL
TX AT 15Z/ WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO WRN AR/SRN MO. THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD OUT
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ONCE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO CENTRAL OK.

COMBINATION OF STOUT CAPPING EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SLOW
EROSION/NEWD ADVECTION OF MORNING STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL
OK SHOULD DELAY DESTABILIZATION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK WHERE GREATER HEATING SHOULD
DEVELOP GIVEN MORE LIMITED CLOUDS. FORECAST OF MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
500-1000 J/KG STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NWRN TX INTO
CENTRAL OK...WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND EXPAND NEWD AND SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT AS
INCREASED ASCENT AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
ATTM...PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS TEND
TO BE UNDERCUT AND/OR DEVELOP ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER
AS FRONTAL LIFT DEEPENS AND SLOPE STEEPENS WITH TIME THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM...ACTIVITY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK-TX/RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO AR/WRN LA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES GIVEN
STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=126944 5466

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

Been watching this too. The GFS has some goofy low forming in the gulf which would screw us, but the Euro model looks awesome next Thurs and Fri. Hope it holds.

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

Yeah this weekend is ...yawn.

Will get the April thread going since the rest of March looks nice and quiet - for those that like that kind of thing in Spring. :-P

Look for some extreme fire conditions next week.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Fire_Danger_Graph.jpg?timestamp=1269649462

Wildfire conditions are now at Extreme values across most of the state. In Norman right now Humidity is at 18% with winds 25-35 mph. Red Flag Warning criteria states winds around this level with humidities below 20% for about 3-4 hours. I would almost expect to see Red Flag Warnings for most of the area tomorrow as conditions gets worse with temps rising to near 90 here in the Metro.

Areas with Dewpoints below 30°F are generally the same areas where relative humidity is dropping below 20%.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1269975830

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.WIND.grad.png?1269975917

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_This_Afternoon.jpg?timestamp=1269936128

Urgent - fire weather message
national weather service norman ok
401 pm cdt tue mar 30 2010

...very warm...dry...and windy weather today and wednesday...

...the red flag warning has been expended this afternoon and early
evening to include northern and central oklahoma. The fire weather
watch for wednesday across western oklahoma and western north
texas has been upgraded to a red flag warning and a fire weather
watch remains in effect wednesday for portions of oklahoma and
north texas...

Okz008-013-019-020-025>029-039-045-310200-
/o.exa.koun.fw.w.0003.000000t0000z-100331t0200z/
kay-noble-logan-payne-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-cleveland-
stephens-jefferson-
401 pm cdt tue mar 30 2010

...red flag warning in effect until 9 pm cdt this evening...

The national weather service in norman has issued a red flag
warning...which is in effect until 9 pm cdt this evening.

* warm and dry weather has developed this afternoon and evening...
With humidity falling near or below 20 percent. This combined
with warm temperatures in the 80s and gusty south winds will
create hazardous fire weather conditions this afternoon and
early evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are occurring. A combination of strong winds...low relative
humidity...and warm temperatures will create explosive fire growth
potential.