http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER OFF SERN CONUS OVER ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJOINING PLAINS AHEAD OF TWO
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...
1. INITIALLY OVER SRN NV...AND FCST TO PIVOT SEWD AND EWD ACROSS
NWRN/N-CENTRAL MEX THIS PERIOD.
2. NOW MOVING SSEWD OVER WRN MT...FCST TO CROSS 4-CORNERS REGION
AROUND 20/00Z...DECELERATING AS IT MOVES SEWD OVER REMAINDER NM
DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ATTM FROM SERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN
KS AND E-CENTRAL NEB. BY 20/00Z...THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO
NEAR ORD...COU...BVO...LTS...LBB...ROW...ABQ. BY 20/12Z...FRONT
SHOULD BE INVOF SBN...STL...FSM...DFW...AUS...HDO AND INTO NRN
COAHUILA. FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN OK NEAR END OF
PERIOD...AS NM UPPER TROUGH APCHS. DRYLINE...FROM COAHUILA NWD
ACROSS SW TX TO FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER W-CENTRAL TX...WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FOR MOST OF PERIOD GIVEN INCOMPLETENESS OF
MOIST-SECTOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION.

...PORTIONS OK...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX...
BAND OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS...IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF SFC COLD FRONT DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS TO
NEAR SVR LIMITS. LACK OF GREATER PRE-STORM LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WEAKNESS OF INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE...AND RESULTING
IMPEDIMENTS TO BUOYANCY...AND MRGL SHEAR PROFILES...COMBINE TO KEEP
SVR POTENTIAL TOO MRGL AND DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
ATTM.

CORRIDOR OF SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F -- FRAGMENTED DIURNALLY BY
DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING -- SHOULD RETURN NWD ACROSS N TX AND
PORTIONS OK SE OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE. RELATED LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE NOCTURNALLY...ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS THETAE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SBCINH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT CORRESPONDING TO SFC
DIABATIC COOLING. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED WRF/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS YIELD
MLCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER NW TX WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED BUT MOISTURE STILL SPARSE...TO UNDER 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
OK WHERE WEAKER LAPSE RATES BUT SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE MAY BE
FOUND. FRONTALLY FORCED CONVECTION -- AIDED BY SFC HEATING --
SHOULD FORM AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD...WITH SOME SWD BACKBUILDING
TOWARD NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU POSSIBLE.

WITH UPPER TROUGHS STILL LAGGING TO SW AND W OF THIS AREA...ONLY
MODEST HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. THIS WILL LIMIT BOTH HODOGRAPH SIZE AND
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR -- E.G. 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SVR
POTENTIAL...THEREFORE...TO BE RATHER SPORADIC...AND TO DIMINISH
AFTER ABOUT 20/03Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
TSTMS...HOWEVER....MAY PERSIST INVOF FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT....ROOTED IN REGIME WHERE CONTINUED FRONTAL FORCING IMPINGES
ON ELEVATED WARM-SECTOR LAYER OF INCREASING MOISTURE.

..EDWARDS/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/19/2010

The 06 UTC runs of the GFS and NAM both came in with 10-15 inches of snow for OKC Saturday, with the 00 UTC run of the European around 10 inches. Latest run of the SREF (03 UTC) indicates a mean snowfall forecast of about 8 inches but with possibilities ranging from 4 to 14 inches. Big question will be where the comma head and deformation zone set up with this one - on top of I-35 or a little to the east. I'm going with pattern recognition on this one - it's a classic setup for heavy snow in central Oklahoma, and mid-March is the time we get wet snow that piles up quickly. So I'm going with an average of 8-10" in OKC with this one, with locally 12".

from the NWS:

THIS JUST IN - 06Z NAM HITS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NE OK WITH 15-25
INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE ON SUNDAY. NOT BUYING
THAT MUCH YET... BUT WE WILL BE LOOKING VERY CLOSELY AT THIS RUN.

I have to ask, how are these models computing snowfall amounts, as in, are these insane amounts of snow what the models think will fall from the sky or actually accumulate? Every forecast I've seen says it will hover aorund 32 until late Saturday afternoon, and even then it will take a few hours for the ground to get to less than 32 given how warm its been lately.

Also, to add one thing: if these models continue to indicate huge snowfall amounts how long before these winter stom watches are upgraded?

I have to ask, how are these models computing snowfall amounts, as in, are these insane amounts of snow what the models think will fall from the sky or actually accumulate? Every forecast I've seen says it will hover aorund 32 until late Saturday afternoon, and even then it will take a few hours for the ground to get to less than 32 given how warm its been lately.

Also, to add one thing: if these models continue to indicate huge snowfall amounts how long before these winter stom watches are upgraded?

Warnings will go out later today. To the first part, I think that is one part that is missing...there needs to be a lot taken into account for this being a very wet snow and also it falling on a wet/warm ground. Of course if the intensity is high enough, it'll offset that...but there is going to be melting/compacting with a wet snow right away.

12Z runs are just now coming in, will wait to see what they say. I typically don't care for the secondary runs (6Z/18Z) as they tend to have some wild swings. However, if 12Z backs them up a bit...then we may need to be concerned a bit.

OUN did lower snow fall totals based on the 0Z runs, which you can see in their graphic a few posts back.

They did say 3-6 for metro, now 4-8 north side.

Last night on Fox25, the weatherman said as much as 12" possible, depending on what track the storm took.

12Z NAM is coming in with 6-12" for the Metro now.

GFS isn't far off...6-10" for the Metro area.

The winter storm warning is being generated and uploaded as I type this, will include OKC metro area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1269016403

Text of warning.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. A POWERFUL LATE-WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHERN... CENTRAL... AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA... BEGINNING IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN
SPREADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HEAVY SNOW... STRONG
WINDS... AND SEVERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LEAD TO
BLIZZARD OR NEAR- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE INTO SUNDAY.
TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION
WHICH NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. PREPARATIONS FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER SHOULD BE PERFORMED TODAY... AND COMPLETED BY TONIGHT.

OKZ008-012-013-018>020-024>032-042-200045-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0003.100320T1200Z-100321T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0004.100320T0900Z-100322T0000Z/
KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-
LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-
PONTOTOC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...ADA
1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH
CREATING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
LIKELY OVER THE WARNING AREA WITH. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS CREATING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

Sounds like deja vu of Christmas Eve all over again !!

This is gonna be worse than the Christmas Blizzard. THIS IS IT!!!!!

The governor is preparing to declare STATE OF EMERGENCY!!!

Well if they are that certain about it, just watch, we'll get a dry finger of air out of Mexico and it will all miss us. (smile)

This is gonna be worse than the Christmas Blizzard. THIS IS IT!!!!!

The governor is preparing to declare STATE OF EMERGENCY!!!

Okay. Time to unplug your computer and put your tinfoil hat back on. :-P

Okay. Time to unplug your computer and put your tinfoil hat back on. :-P
He's just suffering from severe Morgasms...

From TSA


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

OKZ054>067-200500-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.100320T1200Z-100322T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0004.100320T1200Z-100322T0000Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY
TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER.. .TULSA...
ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...C RAIG...
NOWATA...PAWNEE AND OTTAWA.

* THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS * ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS.
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

18Z NAM is moving around a bit again. Heavy snow areas north and West of Metro...as well as Eastern OK. 1-3" maybe 4 on the far northern and western sides.

New OUN Disc:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CREATING POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. UPPER SYSTEM NEAR MOAB UT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS INTENSIFYING
STORM PUTS OKLAHOMA IN LINE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW... WITH
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THE AXIS OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
AREA OF HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY SNOW ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS WILL BE EXPANDED LATER TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE
WATCH ELSEWHERE FOR THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY NORTHWEST FOR LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA... BUT COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF
SLEET BRIEFLY AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH
IMPACTS ARE NOT BE HIGH WITH SLEET COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED SNOW
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED SLEET IN THE ZONES. LATEST MODELS SHOW SLOWER
STORM SYSTEM MOVEMENT WHICH KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE NAM SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE
WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS SHOWS
SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS HEAVY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS TREND CAREFULLY AS THIS COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS INTO
SUNDAY... SO HAVE EXTENDED THE VALID TIME OF THE WATCH AND WARNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW DOES NOT PERSIST INTO MONDAY...
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DIFFICULTIES. WOULD ALSO NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE GRADIENT OF SNOW IS TIGHTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
IN OUR FORECAST... BUT DETERMINING THE SPECIFIC AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A CHALLENGE.

WITH THIS MAJOR STORM SYSTEM... MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

Evening 0Z runs are in. GFS 3-6" for the Metro, NAM 1-3". At least as far as the snowfall prediction for max depth on ground. To make it more confusing, total precip amounts will be around 0.5 to 0.8" liquid on NAM and 0.4 to 0.6" liquid on GFS. So anybody's guess now.

Evening 0Z runs are in. GFS 3-6" for the Metro, NAM 1-3". At least as far as the snowfall prediction for max depth on ground. To make it more confusing, total precip amounts will be around 0.5 to 0.8" liquid on NAM and 0.4 to 0.6" liquid on GFS. So anybody's guess now.


Thats interesting. Thanks again Venture for decoding all of this meteorological data for us lay people. I really don't want to break any snow records so im hoping for the least amount as possible. Are these models just confused or what?

I also thank you. Sometime when you have a little time, can you decode all of the acronyms you use? Some I remember but for many, its been so many years since I took my meteorology classes I have forgotten them.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif?1269068059

Metro area is now dropping below freezing. Sleet/Freezing Rain possible until change over occurs. Strong winds in the 40s just to the west of the Metro.

I'll be throwing some radar images and saving stuff here: www.anvilcrawlers.com - /gr2ae/ (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/)

This is from the higher resolution radar product, so it may look a different different than what TV will show. It doesn't reflect precip type since that is a radar program specific, not radar data. However, I'll try to keep things updated as the event goes and I notice important features.

06Z NAM has heavy snow band setup to the west and north still. There is the situation where it still shows liquid accumulations around 0.5 to 0.8" in OKC, but is lower on snowfall ground accumulations. It may be taking into account the sleet mixing in and warmer ground temps. Liquid accumulation graphic is first.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2010/03/20/06/NAM_221_2010032006_F27_PCPIN_24_HR.png



http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2010/03/20/06/NAM_221_2010032006_F30_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1269073418

The youngest of the fam is due for air travel (AL-Houston-OKC) on Sunday.
Anyone know the likely storm impact, if any, for arrivals at Will Rogers come Sunday afternoon?

We'll probably see OUN start hacking away at the warning areas before much longer. New NAM really doesn't push warning criteria for a lot of the current warned area.

- NW and Far Western OK may seen another 1 inch or less from this.
- SW OK maybe another 1-3".
- SC OK maybe 1" with some dryslotting occurring.
- Central OK 1-2" on the south to 4-6" on the north.
- NC OK around 4-6".
- NE OK seems to still get the brunt with areas maybe getting 6-12".

lol, I guess Mike accomplished what he's out to do. Scare everyone for ratings. What a joke.

The radar is clear between here and Altus. Jack Poo is about all that's going on right now. Even Santa is shaking his head in disgrace...

lol, I guess Mike accomplished what he's out to do. Scare everyone for ratings. What a joke.

Your post is a joke. Mike nailed it. Ain't his fault that a dryslot appeared out of nowhere.

Beside, venture is at fault for jinxing the storm by mentioning the dryslot before it happened. >_<

What I noticed this time, which seems t happen a bit...OKC's mets were biting on each model run individually and letting them influence their forecast. They weren't waiting for several runs to show a similar situation before making a call. Of course we'll never know how much of that is their news departments pushing them to embellish the storm for ratings.

Also the dry slot had been showing on the last several model runs, so they all had opportunity to pick up on it - they just chose to ignore it.

This is gonna be worse than the Christmas Blizzard. THIS IS IT!!!!!

The governor is preparing to declare STATE OF EMERGENCY!!!

Speaking of jokes, nice post.

Speaking of jokes, nice post.

We're not even done yet. We still got the rest of the day of snow. Yeah, so, we have a lil break right now, but it's far from over.

Current OUN short term forecast...


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201600-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WA****A-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
1023 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2010

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

AT 1015 AM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED TEMPERATURES OF 32
DEGREES AND BELOW WEST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA...TO COALGATE...TO
MCALESTER. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE
MIDDLE 20S NEAR LAKE TEXOMA. SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LIGHT RAIN... SLEET...AND SNOW WERE REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THROUGH NOON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE ENID...PONCA CITY... STILLWATER...
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CITY...AND CHANDLER AREAS. LOCALIZED BANDS OF SNOW
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR DURANT...
ATOKA...AND HOLDENVILLE. AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ROADWAYS WET INITIALLY...BUT ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS WITH TIME.

NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. IN AREAS SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS
WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND GREATER
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

We'll probably see OUN start hacking away at the warning areas before much longer. New NAM really doesn't push warning criteria for a lot of the current warned area.
\.

Thats music to many peoples ears I think. This system needs to just hurry up and get out of here. I think I have a new favorite weatherperson and its venture all the way. I put way more stock in his weather knowledge and such than the TV guys. Keep up the good work!

12Z GFS data much the same, if not lower than the NAM model in some areas.

- Western 1/3rd of OK - 2" or less (less further west you go).
- Central 1/3rd of OK - 1-3"
- Eastern 1/3rd of OK - ~4 inches south to 6-8" north.

Thats music to many peoples ears I think. This system needs to just hurry up and get out of here. I think I have a new favorite weatherperson and its venture all the way. I put way more stock in his weather knowledge and such than the TV guys. Keep up the good work!

I gotta admit, I get more of my weather info from here than the telly these days. Probably because it is rare for the folks here to go overboard on the info.
And, as an added bennie, I avoid a passle of car commercials

Latest forecast discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.UPDATE...
AS THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...A BREAK IN
THE ACTION IS BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT JUST EAST OF THE OKC METRO
AREA...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHERN OK.

SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. WE
ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. GREATEST
CONCERN IS STILL FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THAT SHOULD SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

POPS HAVE BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT THE DECREASING CHANCES IN THE
WEST...WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST CHANGING LITTLE.

TAYLOR

Venture, I be seeing you on the KOCO Live Wire. You should just bump Rick Mitchell off and take over, lol...

Warnings are being cut back out in the Panhandles now. Won't be long to have them dropped in the state. Really - no reason to leave them up anymore. Advisories can handle the conditions for the rest of the day.

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

Not at my house unless something changes. SW OKC.

Still got the wrap around and then we'll be done.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/tlx-032010-1934Z.png

Heavier snow band moving in now. Should give a quick couple to few inches.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/gr2ae/tlx-032010-2022Z.png

Coming down pert good NW OKC around 122nd and Council at 3:50 PM.

Forecast Discussion


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
MODELS IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WRAP-AROUND BAND EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS PROBABLY DONE WITH ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE SHORT RUN... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN ENHANCEMENT AND SPREADING OF QPF BACK INTO PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY... WITH THE NAM BEING THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN THIS TREND. THE RESULT COULD BE LINGERING
SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS BEING EAST OF
I-35... AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NEAR AND EAST OF A PERRY...
SEMINOLE... ADA LINE. ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR HEADLINES... WILL BEGIN TO STAND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.
REMOVED ALL HEADLINES FROM NORTHWEST OK. WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OK AND NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THESE AREAS
MAY BE TRIMMED OFF ONCE IT IS DETERMINED HOW FAR BACK TO THE WEST
THE SNOW WILL WRAP.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH WARMING TREND
SLOWED BY ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER AND WET GROUND.

IN THE LONGER TERM... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THAT AREA.

Talking about the backside reminds me of Sir Mix-A-Lot. Maybe he should step into the OKC weather market and do his own forecasts. They could be quite interesting, lol...

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

Some of it has probably melted. So, that 3 inches might include some meltage. Judging from the way it's coming down now, I say we break it.

We've got right at 4 1/2 inches on the westside so far....looks like the wraparound band has just about stalled......OUN mentions on their short term forecast that the storm is begining to mature, theres some evidence of this on radar and satelite imagery. Maybe this storm won't end up being a nothingburger!! I don't know what to expect anymore. Heres OUNs short term forecast issued at 5:40



SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

540 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

AN ONGOING WINTER STORM HAD ALREADY PRODUCED THREE TO SEVEN INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND UP TO THREE
INCHES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORM WAS
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY TOWARD ITS MATURE STAGE. THIS MEANS THAT
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND LOWER VISIBILITY WAS YET TO COME...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA CITY...AND TO THE KANSAS BORDER
NEAR BLACKWELL AND PONCA CITY.

AT 530 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO ANADARKO TO WICHITA
FALLS. THE BAND EXTENDED EAST TO NEAR PERKINS...SHAWNEE...AND
RINGLING. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES
BY 8 PM. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR HEALDTON. THIS EVIDENCE...ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE
FORECAST MODELS...SUGGEST THE LOW WAS INTENSIFYING AND SLOWING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RESULT WILL BE GREATER LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA
CITY...TO NEAR PONCA CITY. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD FOR PEOPLE
TRAVELING OR EVEN WALKING OUTDOORS. ESPECIALLY AS NIGHT FALLS...IT
WILL BE EASY FOR PEOPLE TO BECOME DISORIENTED DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

THE STORM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY WELL AFTER DARK...AS IT MOVES
VERY SLOWLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM...REACHING
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

So far here on the east side we are barely pushing two inches. Patch of dry air seems to be working in just south of Norman, so we'll see how this plays out. Back edge seems more ragged now than earlier.

Venture, just curious, are you using GRLevelX?

If so, what version and where did you get the background image (geography) shapefiles?

Yeah...GRLevel 2 Analyst Edition. Background I got from GrLevelXStuff.com.

As far as weather goes. Main band is just about gone, new development in SE OK may try to swing back around this way, but probably won't make it.

Latest Discussion...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.UPDATE...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTICS ARE FAIRLY EVIDENT...WITH A
BROAD AND SLOWLY DEEPENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE RED RIVER...AND INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES FOCUSING SNOWFALL
NORTH AND JUST WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE 00Z KOUN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A PROFILE OF NEAR SATURATION...WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THROUGH A GREAT DEPTH...AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
THOSE SIGNALS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST THE SNOW SHOULD BE A BIT HEAVIER
THAN WHAT IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING. DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...
HOWEVER...THE AIR AT THE UPPER HALF OF THE SOUNDING MAY BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO DRY FOR THE AMOUNT OF LIFT TO COMPENSATE. SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED AN ARCING COMMA CLOUD THAT PUSHED UP AND OUT FROM THE
LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LEAVING DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
THEREFORE...SNOW THAT IS FALLING NOW IS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
TURBULENT...WARMER LAYERS BENEATH THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
ZONE...RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKES AND LOWER SNOW RATES.

THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...BUT
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE EAST. IF LIFT CAN OVERCOME
THE SLIGHT DRYNESS ALOFT...SNOW RATES COULD INCREASE...AS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE RUC AND 00Z NAM. THIS WOULD MAINLY OCCUR IN FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT HIGHER
SNOW RATES WILL WRAP WESTWARD TO NEAR HUGHES COUNTY DOWN TO ATOKA
COUNTY.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING ON SUNDAY...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
COULD EASILY BE MET OVER A BROAD AREA. WE WOULD MOST LIKELY WAIT
AND ADDRESS THIS ISSUE AFTER WE SEE HOW MUCH THE WINTER STORM
WARNING CAN BE SHAVED OVERNIGHT...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST.

Ah, cool. I use GRLevel3. I need to find some storms. It's been a waste of money having that expensive software the past few years with nothing to chase.

LOL. Yeah I bout this back when I was still chasing a couple years ago. Then I grew out of it...or just got too busy, one of the two.

Okay, NOW is winter done?????

Okay, NOW is winter done?????

It would appear so, but that doesn't mean lows in the 30s are gone.

Quick Outlook using the 12Z GFS Today

Tuesday 23rd - Dry. Low in the Lower 40s, High in Lower 60s.

Weds 24th - Low in the upper 40s, High in the Low 60s. Chance of storms.

Thurs 25th - Showers and Storms Likely first half of the day, then dry. Lows Upper 40s to around 50. Highs Low 50s.

Friday 26th - Dry. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs upper 50s.

Sat 27th - Scattered Storms. Risk of Severe weather with moderate instability throughout the I-35 corridor. Lows in the 40s, High around 60.

Sunday 28th - Scattered Showers. Low in the 40s, high in the 50s.

Monday 29th - Dry. Low in the upper 30s. High in the 50s.

Tuesday 30th - Dry. Low in the lower 40s. High in the mid 60s.

Weds 31st - Dry. Low around 50. Higher in the upper 60s, near 70.

Thurs April 1st - Isolated Storms. Some Severe with moderate instability projected. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the Low/Mid 70s.

Friday April 2nd - Severe Storms. Still a long way out, but this could be a potential elevated risk day. Lows/Highs in the upper 60s.

Sat April 3rd - Heavy Rain/Storms Early the Dry. Lows in the upper 40s, highs lower 60s.

Sunday April 4th - Dry. Lows upper 40s. Highs upper 60s.

Monday April 5th - Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows upper 50s with falling temps.

Tuesday Morning April 6th - Scattered showers. Lows in the lower 40s.

Your dates are off, Venture - Monday is the 22nd, not the 23rd and so on.

Your dates are off, Venture - Monday is the 22nd, not the 23rd and so on.

Fixed it. Dates were right, days were off. Need more sleep. LOL

Need more sleep. LOL With the last little bit of weather, I guess so!