View Full Version : January '10 Weather Discussion



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PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 12:31 PM
English please? I got some of it...

oknacreous
01-28-2010, 12:37 PM
The upshot of it is that freezing rain will be the primary precip type in the OKC area, with increasing rain rates the next few hours. Good evidence is the increase in lightning and radar echo intensity in southern Oklahoma and north Texas moving north into the cold air. Starting to hear reports of power outages and large trees limbs coming down in SW Oklahoma. Expect similar impacts here in a few hours. Changeover to sleet/snow will very very slowly push southeast but will take a while to get into Central Oklahoma (well after dark, though some sleet will mix in briefly from time to time).

Bostonfan
01-28-2010, 12:47 PM
It was 65 yesterday....give it time. Much heavier rain is heading towards the city and should be here this afternoon.....lets hope it turns to sleet before that.

This should be an interesting site to watch for the next few hours.....no power outages yet but I bet it goes up bigtime between now and 6pm

OG&E System Watch (http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/)

I'm not able to get a full screen view. I can't tell anything from this. Am I the only one having trouble seeing it?


NM, got it. It helps to read, lol.

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 01:02 PM
The upshot of it is that freezing rain will be the primary precip type in the OKC area, with increasing rain rates the next few hours. Good evidence is the increase in lightning and radar echo intensity in southern Oklahoma and north Texas moving north into the cold air. Starting to hear reports of power outages and large trees limbs coming down in SW Oklahoma. Expect similar impacts here in a few hours. Changeover to sleet/snow will very very slowly push southeast but will take a while to get into Central Oklahoma (well after dark, though some sleet will mix in briefly from time to time).

I was hoping I just didn't understand it. Thanks!

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 01:16 PM
We are getting ice. Even the nonground birds are huddled on the ground beneath the Cedars outside my sewing room. My trees are covered in ice but you can't tell unless you touch them. I'm seeing some silver - 'spect it won't be long before it starts to look pretty. Uh oh... just got my first power flicker...

westsidesooner
01-28-2010, 01:23 PM
Seeing some of the tree damage coming out of sw Ok is depressing. I hope it changes over to sleet soon. Watching an icestorm unfold is alot like watching a hurricane headed your way....absolutely nothing you can do to protect your power or trees. Ice cycles on roof already about 1 foot with about 1/4" buildup on the trees on the westside.

Bunty
01-28-2010, 01:23 PM
lol, The Stillwater Regional Airport is reporting something I've never seen before-- "unknown precipitation". They're at freezing 32, so I guess they can't determine if what's coming down is freezing or not.

venture
01-28-2010, 01:39 PM
lol, The Stillwater Regional Airport is reporting something I've never seen before-- "unknown precipitation". They're at freezing 32, so I guess they can't determine if what's coming down is freezing or not.

That actually happens quite a bit. Sometimes the AWOS system can't tell the difference between large wet snowflakes and rain or sleet.

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 01:52 PM
It is starting to "frill up" on the trees out here west of the airport. I have my birdcam set up on a time lapse and am interested in seeing if it catches the ice growing. The birds are pretty upset - I may go pour out some food under the overhang of the house. Their regular feeder is out in the pasture and I'm not inclined to go refill it.

venture
01-28-2010, 02:12 PM
18Z NAM has precip ending with the first wave around 3AM in Central sections. It looks like it will remain all freezing rain with some sleet mixing in. It does continue the development of snow across Central sections Friday afternoon with 3-6" possible if this develops.

OKCisOK4me
01-28-2010, 02:20 PM
lol, The Stillwater Regional Airport is reporting something I've never seen before-- "unknown precipitation". They're at freezing 32, so I guess they can't determine if what's coming down is freezing or not.

Maybe it's meatballs!

venture
01-28-2010, 02:30 PM
Area weather update
national weather service norman ok
220 pm cst thu jan 28 2010

...warning decision update...

This warning decision update concerns central and southwest oklahoma.

Fast animations of kfdr reflectivity data and storm relative
velocity suggest a mesoscale convective vorticity maxima was
forming about 50 miles south of wichita falls. This circulation was
associated with the northern extent of the convective line that
extends into central texas.

If this evolution continues it will help to enhance vertical motion
and precipitation rates from southwest oklahoma into then into
central oklahoma over the next few hours. The result would be an
increase in glazing rates.

venture
01-28-2010, 02:37 PM
For those checking out the live blog at Live Severe Weather Coverage Dis (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/) ...
I'm going to leave it unmoderated but I have just about every twitter feed possible tied into it. So a lot of the updates and such from local EMs will go in there.

westsidesooner
01-28-2010, 02:39 PM
Some very good news....at least for now the precip in Bethany has switched over to heavy sleet.

venture
01-28-2010, 02:40 PM
Much more sleet here in East Norman now.

rod4soonrs
01-28-2010, 02:47 PM
does this mean change to snow will be sooner rather than later? Locals say after 10, but seems if there's sleet, the upper levels are cooling quicker.

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 02:57 PM
Just got in from putting out extra feed for the birds. It is LOUD, out there - sleet here, too. Too bitter to stay out long.

venture
01-28-2010, 02:58 PM
I really don't expect to see snow in the Metro, except maybe far NW, until tomorrow with the wrap around.

blangtang
01-28-2010, 03:23 PM
pretty much all sleet now in central norman by campus. hope it stays that way!

OKCMallen
01-28-2010, 03:38 PM
Pretty much only sleet for the past 45 min or so at 50th and Western.

venture
01-28-2010, 03:40 PM
Yup same down here. New GFS is coming in now, will see if it says the same story for tomorrow.

Edit: GFS isn't biting on the redevelopment of snow under the upper low. Maybe just light snow/flurries through noon and that's it.

Bostonfan
01-28-2010, 03:52 PM
Morgan saying 5-8 in of snow for metro, moderate to heavy snow tomorrow. What's this guy looking at?

rod4soonrs
01-28-2010, 03:56 PM
Gary says possible to see very heavy accumulations of snow in the okc metro after midnight through tom. night or sat. morning

venture
01-28-2010, 03:58 PM
18Z NAM just show the chance for a good 3-6" of snow tomorrow, but 18Z GFS has us dry.

sacolton
01-28-2010, 04:04 PM
I imagine everything will stay shut down until next week.

jstanthrnme
01-28-2010, 05:04 PM
Well, here comes a dry slot it looks like. Though once the precip comes back, will it be snow, sleet, or freezing rain?

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 05:16 PM
We've been back to ice for the last hour and a half, for the most part. Every once in awhile I hear sleet hit but it is mainly icy rain. The trees are starting to show the strain.

venture
01-28-2010, 05:20 PM
Remained mostly sleet here since the first change over. Dry slot should be through the metro in the next hour. Freezing Drizzle will probably occur for a bit this evening.

venture
01-28-2010, 05:41 PM
Sun is peaking through in Norman, but winds are up a bit.

PennyQuilts
01-28-2010, 06:07 PM
Am I seeing bright lightening out there????? (no thunder). It is 6:07 and has been going on for about 10 minutes.

Bunty
01-28-2010, 06:13 PM
Here are some storm reports from WFO Norman, OK (OUN) from the IEMBOT RSS feed for the last 12 hours. Here is the link IEMBOT Feed (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot-rss/wfo/koun.xml)

blangtang
01-28-2010, 06:43 PM
power flashed 4 times but came back within 30 seconds each time.

westsidesooner
01-28-2010, 07:06 PM
Theres a very impressive view of the much discussed dry slot on wv satelite imaegry for those of you who are interested. The main upper low is still back west of El Paso Texas. This is time sensitive so it'll change as time goes by. When you go to this link click on:

1 Loop Duration:
2 and click on 12 hours,
3 then click the "water Vapor" option on the left center of the page, then click the
4 "Large size option" above the map and then click on the
5 map itself.

Sorry I'd save it and post the animation but I don;t know how :-(

Satellite page: RAP Real-Time Weather (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/)

Thunder
01-28-2010, 07:35 PM
Venture, latest indication show the dry slot will be short lived with what is coming out of the SW. Your thoughts? How much snow from these overnight before the final wave tomorrow? I say we're gonna have more decent precipitation overnight and tomorrow.

Bostonfan
01-28-2010, 07:40 PM
Theres a very impressive view of the much discussed dry slot on wv satelite imaegry for those of you who are interested. The main upper low is still back west of El Paso Texas. This is time sensitive so it'll change as time goes by. When you go to this link click on:

1 Loop Duration:
2 and click on 12 hours,
3 then click the "water Vapor" option on the left center of the page, then click the
4 "Large size option" above the map and then click on the
5 map itself.

Sorry I'd save it and post the animation but I don;t know how :-(

Satellite page: RAP Real-Time Weather (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/)

thanks for the link. Pretty impressive dry slot. One thing I noticed is how slow this system is moving.

oknacreous
01-28-2010, 09:53 PM
Looks like today's event basically shaped up as expected 24 to 36 hours ago. Major ice storm in the corridor from Duncan/Hobart to Purcell/Pauls Valley with widespread power outages and tree damage. Sleet farther north including OKC with 1" or better accumulation on top of the 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice. Significant snows are staying far to the northwest in a band from north of Amarillo to Gage/Arnett and Enid, where some spots will get 6-10" (reports of more than a foot north of Amarillo).

Light freezing drizzle and a few brief light sleet showers tonight with no significant additional accumulations. Roads still crappy in the morning.

Tomorrow as the system departs an area of light-moderate snow is likely to develop late morning in the Duncan/Lawton/Norman area and spread northeast toward Tulsa/Muskogee during the afternoon. A band of 1 to 3" accumulation appears likely with this, but it appears it might miss north/west OKC to the east.

Soonerus
01-28-2010, 09:55 PM
...on this winter storm...:elmer3:

ssandedoc
01-28-2010, 10:22 PM
The rural communities outside of OKC haven't dodged this one. We are lucky to have power at the moment in OKC. Doesn't mean this won't change in the next few hours.

Dustin
01-28-2010, 10:37 PM
I doubt central okc will lose power tonight. All they are predicting is snow with light freezing drizzle

kevinpate
01-28-2010, 10:54 PM
Since I'm not as far south as Purcell, the biggest threat so far here in Norman appears to be a grader/plow with a speed fetish.

I've lived on a main road for over a decade. Before tonight, I've never seen a one of these chaps blaze through fast enough to scattergun golf ball to softball size chunks from the street up to our porch and on top of the vehicles in the driveway.

If I wasn't ticked off, I'd probably be mildly impressed with the distance achieved. Fortunately, the vehicles have a nice thick ice barrier to (hopefully) protect the finish, and my lad was inside and not out in the yard when the speed freak came through.

Soonerus
01-28-2010, 10:57 PM
The rural communities outside of OKC haven't dodged this one. We are lucky to have power at the moment in OKC. Doesn't mean this won't change in the next few hours.

We dodged, if it was even legit to begin with....:Smiley099

ShiroiHikari
01-28-2010, 11:58 PM
My porch is pretty icy but the roads seem to be okay here in Norman.

Thunder
01-29-2010, 04:22 AM
While everyone been sleeping, we've been dealing with light to moderate freezing rain and sleet in the metro. Many on here will be waking up to see everything more thickly coated with the shiny glass-like ice. Roads is beyond hazardous. Only a matter of time for widespread power outage in the metro.

gen70
01-29-2010, 04:31 AM
While everyone been sleeping, we've been dealing with light to moderate freezing rain and sleet in the metro. Many on here will be waking up to see everything more thickly coated with the shiny glass-like ice. Roads is beyond hazardous. Only a matter of time for widespread power outage in the metro.Evort
Panic bitches..

Thunder
01-29-2010, 04:55 AM
132,000 statewide is without power.

OKCMallen
01-29-2010, 09:32 AM
Roads are pretty bad. Definitely passable, but pretty bad.

venture
01-29-2010, 11:49 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0087.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR AND ERN-NERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 291741Z - 292145Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN AR INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN-NERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NRN TX/SRN OK. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED WITH THIS SATELLITE FEATURE...WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT 17Z IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER SERN OK
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW /MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL SLEET/ TOWARD CENTRAL
AND NERN OK AS WELL AS NRN AR. AS 850 MB JET CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION...ANY REMAINING WARM LAYER WOULD BE MORE PRONE
TO COOLING...ALLOWING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
AND RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 IN/HR AS UVV/S BECOME MAXIMIZED
WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AR WWD INTO ERN-NERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..GARNER.. 01/29/2010

PennyQuilts
01-29-2010, 01:13 PM
We lost power for about an hour and a half, last night, but it came back. I discovered the source of my bright flashes - not lightning. Ahem. I'd set up a time lapse camera just for the fun of it and it was taking pictures. I am such a dork.

sacolton
01-29-2010, 02:21 PM
ENOUGH SNOW ALREADY! It's been snowing non-stop for eight hours!

LIL_WAYNE_2012_PREZIDENT
01-29-2010, 02:30 PM
is it okay for me to go out and drive?

Uncle Slayton
01-29-2010, 02:37 PM
Traffic in Norman seems to be moving along well enough. Just the usual people with stopping distance issues and the damn fools who scrape a tiny hole in the ice on the windshield and drive their igloo down the road.

The shelves at the west side WalMart looked like a swarm of plague locusts had hit them.

Bunty
01-29-2010, 02:51 PM
If you're brave enough.

sacolton
01-29-2010, 03:14 PM
Everything is a complete white-out. I can't tell the yards from the streets ... and it's still coming down hard!

venture
01-29-2010, 04:55 PM
This type of snowfall today has me home sick a bit for the Great Lakes. LOL

Very pretty outside. Thankfully it won't be 80 tomorrow to melt it all right away like usual.

BrettL
01-29-2010, 05:34 PM
This type of snowfall today has me home sick a bit for the Great Lakes. LOL

Very pretty outside. Thankfully it won't be 80 tomorrow to melt it all right away like usual.

Yeah I am from MN and love this. I can do without the cold though.

venture
01-30-2010, 10:35 AM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1264831558

venture
01-30-2010, 11:05 AM
Can confirm the 7-8" on this side of Norman. Over night things compacted a bit, as expected with snow, looks like probably about an inch or so lost as things settled.

PennyQuilts
01-30-2010, 12:23 PM
I think we got about 5 - 6 inches of snow on top of the ice. Turned pretty.

westsidesooner
01-30-2010, 01:08 PM
This type of snowfall today has me home sick a bit for the Great Lakes. LOL

Very pretty outside. Thankfully it won't be 80 tomorrow to melt it all right away like usual.

I'm sooooooo glad it changed over to sleet when it did Thursday...

It reminded me of the kind of snow they get in Colorado. I didn;t make it up there this winter to go skiing, so it was really nice to see a beautiful snow that stuck to the trees without too much wind. Looks like we ended up with about 5" according to the snowbear stick. Here some pics I took yesterday and this morning....as always, they're best viewed by clicking the "full screen" option on the top left.

icestorm2010 | Slideshow (http://cmd.shutterfly.com/commands/pictures/slideshow?site=snicksflicks&page=snicksflicks&album=759)

PennyQuilts
01-30-2010, 02:19 PM
Nice pictures. I love that area.