Ill pass, I spend 8 hours a day in the same building with a few of them. Thats enough for me.....

Morgans latest graphic seems to be narrowing the ice bands and snow and ice seems to be shifting north.

Although this will disrupt travel it seems to be lessening for the metro

Honestly, I'm glad. I'd rather work tomorrow & not have an interruption of electricity...

Morgan saying Thursday am drive will be dry not rainy.

Southwest Airlines - Winter Storm Advisory (http://www.southwest.com/html/travel_center/winter_weather_beginning_jan27.html#Oklahoma) City (OKC)

Oklahoma City (OKC)
We have cancelled several flights to/from OKC on Thursday, January 28.

Before heading to the airport, please check Flight Status Information.

Customers holding reservations to/from OKC on Thursday, January 28, wanting to alter their travel plans may rebook in the original class of service or travel standby (within 14 days of their original date of travel between the original city pairs and in accordance with our accommodation procedures) without paying any additional charge.

Additionally, Customers holding reservations for a flight that is cancelled to/from OKC may request a refund for an unused ticket/travel itinerary.

Customers who purchased their itinerary via southwest.com are eligible to reschedule their travel plans online. All other ticketed Customers should call us toll free at 1-800-435-9792.

00Z NAM has up to 1" of ice in Norman tomorrow evening...will update maps here a bit later.

Temps now falling quickly in northern Oklahoma and the NWS is expecting it to reach freezing in the metro near 4am. Much diffeent than Mike Morgans "everything will be fine til 3pm" forecast. Any thoughts on the cold air getting here quicker than expected V? Or am I just reading to much into it. Will this change the forecasts again?

Oklahoma Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/)

Around 7:30, I went out for a smoke and saw the temp at 60 then 61. An hour later, I saw it go from 57 to 56. I have a feeling that it will change tonight for tomorrow and shift the bad stuff back south to us.

http://images.scribblelive.com/2010/1/27/99462a4a-15db-4898-9554-bad98782a593_400.jpg

i just looked and the mesonet thing says Norman got 2.54 " on Dec 11, 2007. 1" or less this time seems like skittles.

I was thinking i should go park my car in one of the OU parking garages, that would be the lazy way to keep from scraping ice :)

the crazy channel 4 guy made it sound like the ice would be the worst north and west of OKC. he said norman and the east side of okc could expect 1/4" of ice.

be safe everyone!

Temps now falling quickly in northern Oklahoma and the NWS is expecting it to reach freezing in the metro near 4am. Much diffeent than Mike Morgans "everything will be fine til 3pm" forecast. Any thoughts on the cold air getting here quicker than expected V? Or am I just reading to much into it. Will this change the forecasts again?

Oklahoma Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/)

I've been watching this too. Already 40 in Guthrie at 11 pm... yikes.

0Z GFS looks nasty for OKC. It's still a bit colder than the NAM. We shall see...

Seems like the models are converging on a solution: the main freezing rain and significant icing in a swath from Lawton to Norman to Muskogee, and the main snow band from Woodward to Alva to Ponca City. In between would be the old wintry mix with plenty of sleet, more snow as you head north and more freezing rain/icing as you head south. Heaviest amounts west of I-35. So if you're looking for a foot of snow go to Arnett, Buffalo, or into the northern TX Panhandle. If you're looking for power outages and all that fun go to the south metro. In Norman, I hope I have power 24 hours from now.

Edit to add this disclaimer: I can rattle off a dozen winter storm cases where the models converged on the wrong solution 24 hours in advance. This is not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination. :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0069.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SW OK...

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 280622Z - 281215Z

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NM INTO WRN
OK THURSDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL THREAT OF FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO A
SLEET/SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WHILE
PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN NM.

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SONORA MX AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. USING 21Z
SREF/RUC/4KM WRF NMM COMPOSITE...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM I-40 IN ERN NM ENEWD TO
NRN OK AT 09Z...AND FROM THE WRN S PLAINS ENEWD TO NEAR THE OKC
METRO AT 15Z. A WARM NOSE ALOFT AOA 0 DEG C /IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER/ WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE AS ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE
TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT...MAINLY
IN THE NRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE...BY 12Z AS PERSISTENT ADIABATIC
COOLING OCCURS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. EXPANDING BAND OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING S /MAINLY AFFECTING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 12Z/...WHILE A NARROW SW TO NE CORRIDOR OF SLEET IS EXPECTED
IN THE NRN S PLAINS AND THE SRN/ERN PANHANDLE...AND SNOW IN THE
NRN/WRN PANHANDLE. CONTINUED COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS ERN NM OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED. FZRA PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SW OK WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN .05 TO .10 INCH PER
HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS/SMITH.. 01/28/2010

4:00 a.m. and 28 degrees. Brrrrrr!!!

We are either near freezing or already at it, the freezing rain will be here much sooner and the ice total had gone up. This will be catastrophic!

Home Depot and Lowes is having their emergency shipment of generators coming in today. Go early, immediately, before store opening, grab a box! No money? Get the store credit card.

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/2608/freezingrain.jpg

I'm waiting until 8:00 am to decide if I'm going in to work or not.

Freezing Rain event about to get under way. The moisture and colder air are starting to meet up.

http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png?1264679810

http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Didn't Mike Morgan say "dry roads" until 3pm? Hmmmm.

He said dry until 9 or 10 am

I'm waiting until 8:00 am to decide if I'm going in to work or not.

I wish I had that choice. We're probably going to try and squeeze half a day in so we don't have to make it up later.

ETA: Looks like every school in the metro except mine is closed. Even McGuinness is closed. Now I know how my students fee!

http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi

Road Conditions...should start to see West Central OK go down hill fast.

Many flights are canceled after 8am.

I was telling my husband that I sure am glad I am not on pins and needles with kids en route the way I was during the Christmas Eve storm event. I'm staying home with my dogs. Hope the power holds...

Bandnerd, I can't believe they are planning to have school and send the kiddos home in the midst of it.

Ya'll be safe, out there.

I got the call right after I posted that!

All areas North and west of I-44 now below freezing.

Diagnostics suggest the 32F temperature line will set up from Lawton to Purcell to south of Shawnee, with temperatures near 29-31F in most of OKC as the heavy precip gets going this morning. So roads will start to see ice build up on exposed surfaces 8-9am most parts of OKC area, then bridges getting bad around 10am, then the main roads slowly going downhill after that. With the wind, power lines could become a problem by afternoon.

Some indications the freezing line at the surface will come back north - maybe into Norman/Moore this evening, but the damage may be done by then.

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/8856/roadconditions.jpg

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0071.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS...WRN-CENTRAL OK.

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281301Z - 281800Z

EXTENSIVE AND GROWING PRECIP AREA ACROSS ERN NM...W TX AND SRN OK
FCST TO MOVE/EXPAND NWD AND NEWD THROUGH 18Z...RESULTING IN SNOW
RATES 1-2 INCH/HOUR FROM NEAR LVS-SRR LINE NEWD AND EWD ACROSS NRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH 18Z. MEANWHILE FREEZING RAIN ALREADY OBSERVED
INVOF AMA/CVS SHOULD TRANSITION TO AREA OF SLEET THAT EXPANDS IN
PROGRESSIVELY NARROWER ZONE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OK NEAR
AND JUST NW OKC. MIXED ZONE OF BOTH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST FOR MUCH OF REMAINDER MORNING ALONG CORRIDOR FROM E OF CVS
TOWARD CSM/OKC AREAS...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE WITH SWD TO SWD-SHIFTING SFC FREEZING LINE.

PRECIP PLUME WILL BE ENHANCED BY STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME ACCOMPANYING BOTH BROAD/35-45 KT SRN/WARM BRANCH OF
LLJ OVER SW TX...AND SIMILARLY STRONG BUT SOMEWHAT NARROWER NRN
BRANCH LLJ ACROSS SWRN OK...SRN PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH-PLAINS REGION
AND E-CENTRAL NM. MID-UPPER WINDS WILL BE STRONGLY MERIDIONAL WITH
SOME ELY COMPONENT...NE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY EJECTING NEWD OVER SWRN NM. 12Z AMA RAOB
SHOWS ROUGHLY 2500 FT DEEP WARM NOSE ABOVE STABLE/POSTFRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AS OBSERVED...BUT SHOULD
COOL THROUGHOUT REMAINDER MORNING AS TRANSITION OCCURS THROUGH SLEET
TO SNOW. 12Z OUN SOUNDING...WITHOUT ANY ADVECTION OR DYNAMIC
COOLING -- WOULD EXPERIENCE WET-BULB CHANGE TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED CAA AND DRY ADVECTION BENEATH OVERSPREADING
PRECIP PLUME WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EFFECTS...
1. SFC FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE S ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
OK AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION THROUGH 18Z...REACHING TO NEAR
ROW-FSI-OKM LINE.
2. EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS...TO SOME EXTENT AND IN A TOP-DOWN
FASHION...WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES
FROM RELATIVELY WARM PRECIP FALLING INTO COLDER AIR. THIS WILL ACT
TO COMPACT ISOTHERMS AND COMPRESS LAYER OF STRONGEST STATIC
STABILITY VERTICALLY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS
WILL OCCUR...WHICH WILL AFFECT TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO
SLEET IN AND NEAR AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITION ZONE.

..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 01/28/2010

Live Wire | Oklahoma Winter Storm Updates | Liveblog live blogging (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Winter_Storm_Updates)

Everyone, hop on there. Load of fun!!!

We are beginning to get some nasty wet crap out west of the airport. It was still dry at 6:10 (about an hour ago).

We are beginning to get some nasty wet crap out west of the airport.

I didn't know you moved back to Oklahoma. :sofa:

I didn't know you moved back to Oklahoma. :sofa:

We were back about ten days before the LAST big winter event! Good times, baby! Thrilled to be home, let me tell ya. I love Oklahoma weather and am glad I won't miss another Oklahoma spring.

Ask me, again, when the power goes out. I meant to pick up a generator but didn't get around to it. Serve me right for not thinking ahead.

LOL! I need to meet my adopted mother!

It is icing up out here. The van windshield is covered with ice and the fences are getting sheets. The plastic gutter extension is lightly encrusted.

Same down here in Norman. Just peaked out side a bit and all the tree branches, table on the deck, etc...all have a nice coating of ice already.

Icing everywhere on exposed surfaces here in Del City.

Suggestion from a user on Live Blog.

When driving with the heat defroster for the windshield, drive with your visors down, it will force the heat back down and effectively maintain the heat on the windshield.

12Z NAM is pretty much status quo. No indication of any change over before midnight tonight. Hopefully some colder air can work in and get this over to sleet at least.

12Z NAM is pretty much status quo. No indication of any change over before midnight tonight. Hopefully some colder air can work in and get this over to sleet at least.

what do you think the chances of that are?

Not very likely as of right now it seems.

It is COLD out there. I think the bottom just fell out here west of the airport. Wind has picked up and it is bitter.

Raining pretty good now in Bethany...building up a glaze on trees and powerlines....I'm pretty sure we'll lose power today so if I don't get to chat with ya'll later everybody take care out there.

We are running the heater a little hotter to try to capture some, just in case. Off to take a hot shower while I am sure I can...

The 12Z NAM model output for OKC area is absolutely classic for significant freezing rain this afternoon and evening. Expect 3/4 to 1" ice and major impacts on the power grid and roads.

An interesting curveball in the 12Z NAM - it now develops a band of heavy snow right over the OKC-Tulsa corridor on the back side of the system midday to late afternoon tomorrow, with potentially 3-5" of snow. We'll see if this trend continues.

50th and Western: at 740am, my driveway was completely dry, but by the time I was almost downtown at 815, everything was wet. Everything. When it ices, it'll be dangerous without much more water on top of it.

It's so beautiful!

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/3076/icetrees.jpg

And yes, it's all ice. :-O

SPC Sounding Analysis Page - 01/28/2010 12 UTC (http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10012812_OBS/)

Venture, look at the indication for the 850 area, getting colder, right? Colder than previously expected? So, does this mean that it's back to sleet/snow changeover much earlier than expected? Translate it for me. lol

50th and Western: at 740am, my driveway was completely dry, but by the time I was almost downtown at 815, everything was wet. Everything. When it ices, it'll be dangerous without much more water on top of it.

Go home. Better now than later.

Go home. Better now than later.

I appreciate that! However, I don't sign my own paycheck, so I'm going to have to stay...

I appreciate that! However, I don't sign my own paycheck, so I'm going to have to stay...

Well, please drive carefully when you go home. I hope you have a blanket in the car.

We're starting to get some sleet now in Norman.

The afternoon rush is going to be a nightmare. Hopefully employers let people go early.

Can't take credit for this, and forgive me if it has been posted before in similar times:

SNOW…….klahoma
Where the cold front's sweepin' down the plain
And the piles of sleet, beneath your feet
Follow right behind the freezing rain.

SNOW…….klahoma
Ev'ry night my honey lamb and I
Travel home from work and hope some jerk
Doesn’t wreck our car in passing by!

We know we belong to the land
But it could use more salt and more sand…

That’s why we say….. WHOA!
We’re slidin’ the other way…….. YIKES!

We’re only sayin’
You’re slick as snot SNOWklahoma…
SNOWklahoma
SNOW-K-l-a-h-o-m-a
SNOWKlahoma….SNOW K!

hahaha!!

Husband thinks he is going to Sonic for lunch even though he doesn't need to leave the house. Dumb Okie... <bg>

This live local coverage on all four stations is getting redundant.

We know it's icy...... We know we need to stay home if we have a choice... We know what snow looks like on windshields, bridges and sidewalks. One local viewer had the audicity to report their FRONT PORCH WAS COVERED WITH ICE.

The least they could do is add some slapstick comedy. Show cars crashing, people falling on their keisters, cars spinning like tops, throw in a few cartoon noises and we could make this thing fun.

Something like this.....

YouTube - Winter Car Slide Multiple Car Collision in Black Ice & snow - Car Crashes in Ice (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP28pbcz4tM)

I agree onefor

If the radar out of fredrick is any indication there is a much heavier area of precipitation moving in from southwest Oklahoma. Looks kinda ominous.

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Frederick, OK (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=fdr&loop=yes)

Is this storm sputtering out? It's mostly just wet - no ice on the roads.

Is this storm sputtering out? It's mostly just wet - no ice on the roads.

It was 65 yesterday....give it time. Much heavier rain is heading towards the city and should be here this afternoon.....lets hope it turns to sleet before that.

This should be an interesting site to watch for the next few hours.....no power outages yet but I bet it goes up bigtime between now and 6pm

http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0074.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...SRN...NERN AND N-CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME
NWRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281818Z - 282215Z

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING TOWARD
E-CENTRAL/NERN OK AND EXTREME NWRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
MOISTEN WITH TIME...LEADING TO SLEET TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TOWARD
00Z. FARTHER S OVER S-CENTRAL OK...DRY AIR MAY ADVECT INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING THE WET BULB ZERO LINE TO SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE RED RIVER...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN.

AT 17Z...SFCOA DATA INDICATED THE WET BULB ZERO LINE EXTENDED FROM
ROUGHLY FSM/W-CENTRAL AR TO A LOCATION IMMEDIATELY S OF FSI IN
SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NELY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF OK WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD
S-CENTRAL OK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SWD PUSH OF THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE TOWARD THE RED RIVER. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO THE SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WITH A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE /5-6 DEG C/ CENTERED NEAR 850 MB PER 15Z OUN
SPECIAL SOUNDING. AS THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD INTO OK...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK...PERHAPS SPREADING SWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
TOWARD 00Z OVER S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB SUGGESTIVE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES.

OTHERWISE...AS THE 40-50 KT S-SELY LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD WITH THE
EMERGING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD EVENING...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN OK INTO EXTREME NWRN
AR...AT WHICH POINT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS RAPID WET BULB COOLING
AND MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN THE ONSET OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET. FARTHER W FROM
CENTRAL INTO N-CENTRAL OK...FREEZING RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO SLEET
MORE QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WITH SNOW BECOMING
MORE PROBABLE TOWARD 00Z PER SREF GUIDANCE.

..GARNER.. 01/28/2010