00Z Model runs for both NAM and GFS are continuing to push for more a freezing rain and sleet even for the metro. To pin point out close this is going to be.

Kingfisher: Freezing Rain to Sleet @ Noon to Snow/Sleet @ 3PM to Snow @ 6PM Thur.
Oklahoma City: Freezing Rain to Sleet @ 6PM to Sleet/Snow @ 9PM to Snow @ 3AM Fri.
Norman: Freezing Rain to Sleet @ 12 AM to Snow/Sleet @ 3AM to Snow @ 6AM Fri.
Pauls Valley: Rain to Freezing Rain @ 9PM to Sleet @ 6AM to Snow @ 12PM Fri.

I'll work on another amount forecast tomorrow after the next couple runs.

Best suggestions now, get your running around that you need done for food/water in case power goes out. For sidewalks and driveway...salt them down when temp falls. The brine solution will help keep it clear until the sleet/snow start. Then just be sure to shovel it off before you drive over the snow/sleet pack.

Does anyone know if the Norman NWS office (or any one else) has a link to a Sperry-Piltz ice forecast map for central Oklahoma like this one for northeastern Oklahoma from NWS Tulsa?

Sperry Piltz Utility Ice Damage Index (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=badice)

I wish OUN would add that feature as well....for what its worth.

It'll also be interesting to see what kind of warnings OUN goes with tomorrow. Will it be a blanket Winter Storm warning for the entire area....or WSW north of I-40 and Ice storm warning to the south? I'm guessing blanket Winter Storm to start out with.

According to 6Z NAM, OKC timeline looks about right, Norman is slowing down a bit to where they may be a longer period of freezing rain and/or sleet.

Watched Channel 4 last night. Very interesting insight from Mike Morgan.

Kevin Ogle: Here's Mike Morgan with the latest on the winter storm. Mike?

Mike Morgan: (screaming) AHHHHHHHHHHH! AHHHHHHHHHH! AHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Kevin Ogle: Thanks, Mike. In other news ...

Watched Channel 4 last night. Very interesting insight from Mike Morgan.

Kevin Ogle: Here's Mike Morgan with the latest on the winter storm. Mike?

Mike Morgan: (screaming) AHHHHHHHHHHH! AHHHHHHHHHH! AHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Kevin Ogle: Thanks, Mike. In other news ...

Mike wasn't that scary. If you want scary, read what Jed had said that someone posted.

David have his forecast out this morning for central calling for 1-3" ice with 5-10" snow.

wss, the NWS had already issued Winter Storm Warning for the most part of the state. We are in grave danger!

I trust Venture more than those guys anywya.

Text of the warning, will toss out my thoughts here in a few.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

OKZ004>031-033>038-TXZ083>085-272200-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0001.100128T1200Z-100129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0001.100128T1200Z-100129T1200Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAW TON...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON
350 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ICE... SLEET... AND SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL
BE FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACTS: FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON POWER
LINES AND ELEVATED SURFACES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS SOUTH OF
STILLWATER... EL RENO...HOBART...ALTUS...AND QUANAH WHERE 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. SLEET AND SNOW WILL ALSO
OCCUR. FARTHER NORTH... GREATER SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE
LIKELY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE 6 TO
12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD ADDITIONAL STRESS TO POWER LINES THAT MAY HAVE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Okay, guys, you know the drill. PANIC! Go str8 to Crest (the small one) and I'll service you! Just ask for Jesse. :-)

The 12Z NAM model came in warmer and with a stronger dry slot. Too early to say if this is an important trend (we'll know more late this afternoon). But if so, the band of significant freezing rain would be farther north, more along a Hobart-Norman-Shawnee line and the heavier snow band would be well NW of the OKC metro area with no more than 1 or 2" in OKC but still a lot of sleet. More later.

In the same note, I'm struggling with how to really forecast how this will work. Norman surface temps are expected to be around 32-33 during the event as well now. So there is that possibility of limiting ice accumulation.

.... Norman surface temps are expected to be around 32-33 during the event as well now. So there is that possibility of limiting ice accumulation.

Hope springs eternal on my end. I have things I'd like to get done if doing so safely is possible.

GFS is backing up NAM so far...so yeah. If you were hoping for snow, doesn't look like its going to happen this time around. Looks like change over to sleet won't occur on the far NW side of the Metro until about 9PM-ish Thursday.

Quick note: The live blog chat requires everyone to be moderated until I approve them. I'm trying to get people approved for unmoderated chat once they post something. The chat will remain up through Friday at this point. Link: http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/livechat.html

GFS is backing up NAM so far...so yeah. If you were hoping for snow, doesn't look like its going to happen this time around. Looks like change over to sleet won't occur on the far NW side of the Metro until about 9PM-ish Thursday.

OK - so are we saying more ice and sleet?

If that's the case, for those of us who may be in need of cancelling Thursday events, would this still be advisable, or do you think this is one of those things that will just peter out? All talk, no action?

The storm is still going to happen. This will be more ice and sleet - in other words, this is probably the worst solution. Heavy snow is always going to be better than ice. GFS right now is really siding with, as far as the metro goes, don't expect any snow accumulation south of I-40.

Are you saying the dry slot only affect the snow portion? This doesn't make sense. We had a dry slot that appeared for the last blizzard and it didn't really affect the storm's potential. We saw what happened. I'll just pretend the dry slot isn't there this time and hope we get lots of snow.

So... Uhh... Venture, how advance is the dry slot turning out to be? If it is that much, then we shouldn't expect much from all 3; ice, sleet, and snow.

I trust Venture more than those guys anywya.

Ditto dat!!

Okay this is the new best guess for how this will work out. GFS is coming in much dried than NAM and is ending precip pretty quickly early Friday. NAM maintains some wrap around that could drop 1-2" of snow in most of Central OK. This is a blend of the two, but drying things out on the schedule of the GFS with not much if any snow accumulation for OKC. The Ice forecast (first one) is a bit tricky due to warm up working into places, but not in others. Central OK...at least the majority of the Metro area, does appear that this will be primarily an ice event with some some sleet at the end.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/okstorm-jan2010-ice.jpg

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/okstorm-jan2010-snow.jpg

WOW! We really need to get rid of the dry slot.

no, we need the dry slot to cut down on the freezing rain.

Thanks for going to the jpg format V.

Okay, I don't understand this. I'm still waiting for Venture to answer this. The dry slot is there, it is making the storm have less snow potential, so shouldn't it affect the ice potential? Moisture is moisture, doesn't matter what form, the dry slot choke the storm. How can the snow go way down while the ice stay way high?

And the models is saying some sort of warmer air aloft, longer time to cool down up there, but the storm is slowing down, so that would give that warmer air aloft to cool down while the storm come crawling in. Right? I'm missing something here. :-(

And how can the models now say the storm will get out of here earlier than predicted previously when the storm is slowing down the movement?

Okay, I don't understand this. I'm still waiting for Venture to answer this. The dry slot is there, it is making the storm have less snow potential, so shouldn't it affect the ice potential? Moisture is moisture, doesn't matter what form, the dry slot choke the storm. How can the snow go way down while the ice stay way high?

Dry slot just impacts moisture in the storm. The snow is way down because more warm air is being pulled up into the storm at the mid levels.


And the models is saying some sort of warmer air aloft, longer time to cool down up there, but the storm is slowing down, so that would give that warmer air aloft to cool down while the storm come crawling in. Right? I'm missing something here. :-(

And how can the models now say the storm will get out of here earlier than predicted previously when the storm is slowing down the movement?

This is the first model run to where weather balloons have actually be able to go into the storm and get readings. So you are seeing adjustments in the models based on what is actually going on upstairs. The warmer air aloft is being pulled in by the upper level storm system, so there really isn't any cooling to take place. It is pulling in the air that is over Texas/LA right now.

So to summarize. The dry slot is coming in from the SW and will cut off the precip pretty quickly in the morning on Friday. The colder air aloft will not work in until very late Thursday or early Friday. Timing just isn't right with this one for a major snow event. Classic Oklahoma ice storm.

Okay, guys, you know the drill. PANIC! Go str8 to Crest (the small one) and I'll service you! Just ask for Jesse. :-)

Congratulations go to you with that fine attitude. Lesser people than you would be bitching about what days like this are gonna mean at work.

Congratulations go to you with that fine attitude. Lesser people than you would be bitching about what days like this are gonna mean at work.

You need to rephrase that to be more readable. :omg:

Anyway, it's just before noon and already the temperatures as they go over 60 are at or just over predicted highs. I hope that's a good sign for less snow and ice, but I'm not counting on it.

You need to rephrase that to be more readable. :omg:

Sorry, but it's just a sincere compliment. If I were your boss I'd be very happy with ya.

Tulsa weather service is going with much more ice.

DSP ICE Hazard (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/element.php?element=ICE)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/StormIceAccum.png

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/badIce24hr2.png

What's the over/under on snow accumulation at Will Rogers?

Meanwhile, as excitement over the prospect for a lot of frozen precipt. builds, has anyone heard that the NWS has raised the criteria on size of hail to define a severe thunderstorm? It's now at 1" raised from 3/4 in. Story at: National Weather Service - Warning Decision Training Branch (http://www.weather.gov/oneinchhail/)

What's the over/under on snow accumulation at Will Rogers?

This is an ice storm through and through now, snow accumulation is going to be a minor blessing to give some traction.

Meanwhile, as excitement over the prospect for a lot of frozen precipt. builds, has anyone heard that the NWS has raised the criteria on size of hail to define a severe thunderstorm? It's now at 1" raised from 3/4 in. Story at: National Weather Service - Warning Decision Training Branch (http://www.weather.gov/oneinchhail/)

Yup...good change in my opinion.

Side note. Updated http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/ ... It now has the chat on the main page, with radar and the NWS Norman page. The chat is tied in to twitter feeds from the NWS and area emergency managers.

I guess we can expect massive power outages then.

Tulsa weather service is going with much more ice.

DSP ICE Hazard (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/element.php?element=ICE)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/StormIceAccum.png

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/badIce24hr2.png

Wow that is not good at all. An inch of ice right along the 1-44 corridor. This is like a bad repeat of December 2007. The funny thing is I was just in rural Lincoln County this weekend and the all of the post oaks still look like hell from last ice storm. If this holds up they will have to change the name from "green country" to "jangled mess country".

Venture you mentioned that the storm is pulling in warm air at the mid level, which will snuff out any chance of major snow. Is there a possibility that the storm is powerful enough to pull warmer air at the low levels and maybe keep us above freezing longer than what is predicted?

If you noticed on my graphic, I didn't fill in a lot of South Central OK with any ice, because I'm going with the hunch that surface temps are going to be in the 33-34 range and stop most significant ice accumulations. This is a crap shoot though, but I'm going to bet on it right now. However, higher elevations and south in the south will probably be cold enough for ice. I guess I could have went with like the purple polka dots or something.

Live Wire | Recent Events (http://livewire.koco.com/)

At 1:00pm, Rick will be answering questions.

Elsewhere, the radars is picking up weird noise. After investigations, it was discovered Mike is still screaming, "AHHHHHHHH!" KFOR viewers are advised to turn down their television sound volume.

New forecast from OUN...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Snowfall_Totals.jpg?timestamp=1264616684

Mike Morgan said we're all gonna die.

Meanwhile, as excitement over the prospect for a lot of frozen precipt. builds, has anyone heard that the NWS has raised the criteria on size of hail to define a severe thunderstorm? It's now at 1" raised from 3/4 in. Story at: National Weather Service - Warning Decision Training Branch (http://www.weather.gov/oneinchhail/)


Yup...good change in my opinion.



I agree 3/4" hail isn't very damaging, and it might keep down on unneccesary warnings that get the public apethetic.


Wow that is not good at all. An inch of ice right along the 1-44 corridor. This is like a bad repeat of December 2007. The funny thing is I was just in rural Lincoln County this weekend and the all of the post oaks still look like hell from last ice storm. If this holds up they will have to change the name from "green country" to "jangled mess country".


One good thing though is that a lot of the weaker trees have already been damaged or downed. The same thing happened here on the westside a few years ago. The 2001 (or 2002) storm didn't have as much ice as 2007 but we had much less tree damage in 2007 than the 2001 (or 2002) icestorm because all the weaker limbs had already come down.

On a sidenote I just watched the noon weather on 4 and 9 and I have to admit its kinda disturbing. I don't want to sound sexist, for all I know both of these women are highly professional meteorologists, but it seems like the local channels are following the trend set by Fox and going with pretty women to get more viewers. The woman on 9 twice said we we're going to have freezing snow tomorrow. hmm.

I have the same problem when they send their amatuer journalists out storm chasing and they don't know the difference between a wall cloud and a shelf cloud....and half the time can't describe the scene they are witnessing, or what their location is. if the stations true intent is to protect it's viewers wouldn't it be prudent to send qualified proffesionals into the field? It also makes me wonder how many tv meteorolgists a station really needs. We get one guy at 6am, a woman at noon, and I'm sure Mike and Gary are saving themselves for primetime.

Some consistency would be nice. OK my rant is over. lol

(What is the difference b/n a wall cloud and a shelf cloud?)

On a sidenote I just watched the noon weather on 4 and 9 and I have to admit its kinda disturbing. I don't want to sound sexist, for all I know both of these women are highly professional meteorologists, but it seems like the local channels are following the trend set by Fox and going with pretty women to get more viewers. The woman on 9 twice said we we're going to have freezing snow tomorrow. hmm.

Yeah. Cause the world needs more of these guys (http://failblog.org/2010/01/20/tmi-fail/).

Now back to your regular programming (something you WON'T see for the next 48 hours!)

I just heard on the radio that the city has replenished its salt supply for the coming storm. Both buckets!

(What is the difference b/n a wall cloud and a shelf cloud?)

That's a good question. See answer at: Wall cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_cloud#Wall_cloud_vs._shelf_cloud)

For anyone on here having fish tanks, you are responsible for the life of the fish and the beneficial bacteria in the filters. Take the proper steps to ensure they all will remain alive in case of an event of power outage in your area.

The link to The Oklahoma Aquarium Club is in my signature. I've started the Winter Weather Emergency thread, so read thru it and register to be a member to ask questions.

It's important that those that have fish tanks to understand that the bacteria colony in the filters is crucial (right word?) to maintain the safety of the water for the fish.

Live Wire | Oklahoma Winter Storm Updates | Liveblog live blogging (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Winter_Storm_Updates)

Will continue for the duration of the storm.

Latest info going around (not confirmed), the interstates are to close tomorrow at 3pm.

Live Wire | Oklahoma Winter Storm Updates | Liveblog live blogging (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Winter_Storm_Updates)

Will continue for the duration of the storm.

Latest info going around (not confirmed), the interstates are to close tomorrow at 3pm.

Interstate rumor is bogus. Probably office workers trying to get their businesses to shut down.

Live Wire | Oklahoma Winter Storm Updates | Liveblog live blogging (http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklahoma_Winter_Storm_Updates)

Will continue for the duration of the storm.

Latest info going around (not confirmed), the interstates are to close tomorrow at 3pm.

From the mouth of Mike Morgan at 10:00 p.m. last night! I wonder if he's backed off that statement now?

I'm glad Morgan works for ODOT now. /sigh

18Z NAM has the dry slot very well defined over Central OK by 12 AM Friday. Previous amount forecast looks okay...may need to raise the ice accumulation to the SW.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's looking more and more that this storm is a dud, at least for the OKC area.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's looking more and more that this storm is a dud, at least for the OKC area.

Its going to be a significant icing event, not so much snow. In terms of property damage and risk to life, this is worse than a ton of snow.

Are we going to die?

Are we going to die?

Eventually. Probably not from this unless Darwin gets involved.

i will consider the storm a dud if my electricity works tomorrow night

Its going to be a significant icing event, not so much snow. In terms of property damage and risk to life, this is worse than a ton of snow.

I totally agree, ice is much worse. Just seems to me the storm is moving more north now and temps may not get as cold at the surface. Then you add the dry slot shutting rain off sooner. maybe I'm totally off.

Seems like KFOR is downplaying the storm now.

Yeah. Cause the world needs more of these guys (http://failblog.org/2010/01/20/tmi-fail/).

Now back to your regular programming (something you WON'T see for the next 48 hours!)

thats too funny. I wish Mike Morgan had said something like that when we got only 2" of snow. lol


Thunder, if you can you should invest in a small generator to keep your fish tanks (and whatever else) going. Some of the small ones aren't to expensive these days. We have a koi pond in the back yard, luckily they sleep most of the winter, or hibernate, or whatever it is they do. My main concern with them is getting bonked in the head by a falling tree limb, or the limb puncturing the liner.....that would really bite.

And he difference between a wall cloud and a shelf cloud can be decieveing to the untrained eye...sometimes even a semi-trained one. Wall clouds can produce tornadoes and are usually on the backside of a cumulonimbus cloud, shelf clouds are always located on the leading edge of a thunderstorm and don't usually produce tornadoes (though there have been gustnadoes in some.)

To compliment Buntys entry: Arcus cloud - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcus_cloud)

You notice the weather guys are shot from the waist up. HA!!

Hiding the weather woodies:kicking:

I totally agree, ice is much worse. Just seems to me the storm is moving more north now and temps may not get as cold at the surface. Then you add the dry slot shutting rain off sooner. maybe I'm totally off.

It is moving a bit more to the north. I think the the southern extent of the ice I had on my last map is pretty good right now. I think SE OK is going to stay all rain. NAM and GFS at 18Z both have the precip getting shut off around 12 AM Friday. However, the opportunity is still there for well over a half inch of ice.

I would probably say if you were looking at the models yesterday or before, they were showing some liquid amounts in 2-3 inch range. That is gone. It is now more sensible in most locations. However, NAM and GFS disagree on how much of the heavier precip will be in Northern OK. NAM goes with more, GFS much less.

Weathermen shouldn't get paid if their predictions are wrong.

You notice the weather guys are shot from the waist up. HA!!

Hiding the weather woodies:kicking:

^^^ Someone want to see so badly! :LolLolLol