Those models are insane. Am I reading the GFS correcetly....does it really say 16-20". That much snow in cnetral Oklahoma would be devestating....especially with high winds. glad we have a generator....I'd be willing to bet next model runs bring the totals down quite a bit. We'll see when we wake up.

Next NAM will be done around 2:38 am and GFS around 6:20 am. They will definitely be telling as well as the 12Z runs. I wouldn't be shocked if NAM is consistent, OUN will roll with winter storm watches to play it safe. Plus we are in the time frame now to where they would need to get them out.

It will be devastating. I have several tanks and I can not afford to have them shut down and lose all the beneficial bacteria in the filters. I am establishing a newly set up 100 gallon tank. So, if the power goes out, this will be a disaster. I got fish in that jumbo tank starting the cycle.

I would think if those forecasts hold it would require a Blizzard warning with the winds involved....at least a watch to start. And that kind of accumulation of heavy wet snow could cause roof collapses....not to mention the size of the snow drifts.......wow.

Probably an appropriate time to revisit these definitions. These are specific to Norman office as criteria varies from region to region. The number of products has also been reduced to avoid a multitude of products used for Winter weather.

Winter Weather Advisory - Hazardous winter weather conditions are occurring, imminent, or likely. Conditions will cause a significant inconvenience and if caution is not exercised, may result in a potential threat to life and/or property. The generic term, winter weather advisory, is used for a combination of two or more of the following events; snow, freezing rain or freezing drizzle, sleet, and blowing snow.

Winter Storm Watch - Hazardous winter weather conditions including significant accumulations of snow and/or freezing rain and/or sleet are possible generally within 36 hours. These watches are issued by the Weather Service Forecast Office.

Winter Storm Warning - Hazardous winter weather conditions that pose a threat to life and/or property are occurring, imminent, or highly likely. The generic term, winter storm warning, is used for a combination of two or more of the following winter weather events; heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, and strong winds.

Blizzard watch - Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or greater, considerable falling, and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to 1/4 mile or less for a period of three hours or more are possible generally within the next 36 hours.

Blizzard Warning - Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or greater, considerable falling, and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to 1/4 mile or less for a period of three hours or more. There are no temperature criteria in the definition of a blizzard but freezing temperatures and 35 mph winds will create sub-zero wind chills.

Heavy snow warning - Heavy snowfall amounts, 4 inches or more in 12 hours or 6 inches in 24 hours, are imminent and the criteria for amounts varies significantly over different county warning areas.

Ice Storm Warning - Heavy ice accumulations are imminent and the criteria for amounts varies over different county warning areas. Accumulations range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch or more of freezing rain.

Wind Chill Warning - Extreme wind chills that are life threatening, criteria varies significantly over different county warning areas.

Snow Advisory - Moderate snowfall amounts are imminent and the criteria for amounts varies significantly over different county warning areas.

Freezing Rain Advisory - A trace to 1/4 inch of expected freezing rain is needed in any county warning area to prompt a freezing rain advisory.

Freezing Drizzle Advisory - A trace to 1/4 inch of expected freezing drizzle is needed in any county warning area to prompt a freezing rain advisory.

Blowing Snow Advisory - Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less.

Wind Chill Advisory - Dangerous wind chills making it feel cold, criteria varies significantly over different county warning areas.

Being of sound mind and body, I hereby bequeath assign and freakin' pray for delivery of any and all snow destined for for central Oklahoma this week to land solely upon the good citizens of Stillwater, Enid, Noble and Ponca City, save and except 1.3 inches to be reserved for Guthrie and Edmond.

Just leave me and my yard the freak alone this year.

The latest special weather statement sounds like only 1 to 3 in. of snow:

Message summary: ...late week storm will bring strong winds...very cold air...and some snow...
Winter weather may develop over the southern plains beginning wednesday evening as a storm system intensifies and tracks from the southern rockies eastward across the plains. Strong northerly winds and much colder air will result in a cold and blustery christmas eve with wind chill temperatures in the single digits to 20s. Although wind speeds will decrease late on christmas day...it will still be cold...with highs only in the upper 20s and 30s. The storm will begin to take shape during the early morning hours on wednesday as colder air begins to move into northwestern oklahoma. On wednesday...a cold front will spread toward the southeast...
Slowly at first...but more rapidly by evening. Freezing temperatures will reach central and southwest oklahoma...and western north texas...by thursday morning. As cold air continues to spread into the area... Rain may mix with or change to snow over northwestern oklahoma late wednesday afternoon... And much of western oklahoma and portions of western north texas before sunrise on thursday. Rain may then mix with or change to snow before precipitation ends across the remainder of the area during the day on thursday. The late arrival of cold air and the progressive nature of the upper low will limit snowfall totals. Still...it does appear that 1 to 3 inches of snow may accumulate in portions of northern and central oklahoma...especially around enid...ponca city...and stillwater early thursday. Snow accumulations in excess of two inches may extend south into the oklahoma city metro area. Some light snow accumulation may extend as far south and west as ardmore and hobart. Increasingly blustery winds will result in blowing and drifting snow... As well as reduced visibility. Hazardous winter weather will persist even after the precipitation ends. A large mass of arctic air...the coldest yet this season...will overspread all of oklahoma and western north texas. Wind chill temperatures may become dangerously low...especially thursday night and friday. Air temperatures across northern oklahoma could remain near or below freezing for as long as three or four days.

06Z NAM model run is in, it has reverted back to less than 1" of snow across all but the extreme eastern 1/4th of the state. There, could see 2-4", up to 5" with the heaviest snow in NW AR and MO.

Needless to say, we won't know what is going to happen until we are about 12-24 hours out. If anyone says otherwise, they are lying and playing into the hype.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2266.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OK...N-CENTRAL AND E TX...WRN
AR...NWRN LA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230837Z - 231100Z

CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR MAY EXIST DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS OVER THIS REGION...WITH THREAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL OVER OK
PORTION. POTENTIAL TRANSITIONS TO STG-SVR GUSTS AND
CONDITIONAL/MRGL TORNADO RISK SWD ACROSS E TX TO UPPER COAST.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/CONDITIONAL FOR WW ANYTIME
SOON...ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY LATER
TODAY...PER SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY FRONTAL ZONE FROM N-CENTRAL OK SWWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OKC AREA...TO BETWEEN FSI-SPS AND SWWD ACROSS NW
TX. SEGMENTS OF FRONT MAY DRIFT SEWD...BUT LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER DRY SLOT...LEADING EDGE OF
WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...MOVING EWD ACROSS
I-35 CORRIDOR OF SRN OK AND TX AT 40-45 KT. MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INCREASE NWD FROM RED RIVER REGION ACROSS OK...WITH DECREASING
MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY FROM NE OK NWD. ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-800 J/KG
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVER ERN OK...WITH SIMILAR VALUES OF MLCAPE
WHERE SBCINH IS WEAKER ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK...AND N-CENTRAL THROUGH
SE TX. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...OFFSET JUST
ENOUGH BY HIGHER THETAE TO MAINTAIN BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS OVER
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL/NE TX...MORE CONSISTENT
CLOSER TO UPPER TX COAST. THIS SWATH CORRESPONDS TO SFC THETAE OF
AT LEAST 322 K...OR COMBINATION OF SFC DEW POINTS AOA 57 F WITH SFC
TEMP AROUND 62-63 F...AS WELL AS PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH AS EVIDENT
IN LATEST GPS READINGS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT WILL
REMAIN COMMON OVER THIS REGION...AND HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN
MAXIMIZED FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS LOCATED BENEATH WRN PORTIONS
OF BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ.

LIMITING FACTORS IN AREA OF MOST NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW WILL
INCLUDE LACK OF GREATER LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY S OF RED RIVER...AND
WEAKNESS OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING IN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INLAND
BOUNDARIES E OF FRONTAL ZONE. TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN FRINGE OF
THIS ENVIRONMENT -- OVER E-CENTRAL/NE TX -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NEWD OVER GRADUALLY MORE ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER WITH MINIMAL
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.

GFS is retaining heavy precip over Central OK and EXTREMELY heavy precip in eastern OK. I'm going to go with GFS for right now since it has gone 3 runs now and holding on to this. NAM can't be forgotten though since it did go farther east taking the precip with it. I firmly believe we'll see winter storm watches issued here in the next hour or two or at the latest with the 12Z runs if they show the same thing. There isn't anything wrong with issuing a watch and cancelling it. At the very least, winter weather advisory criteria will be met in the central portions of the state...so it won't be a waste.

Tulsa has rolled with a Winter Storm Watch for NE OK. Their forecast discussion states this is based on the 00Z GFS and ECMWF models. Apparently they are throwing NAM out for now and are not including the 06Z models.

So how much? Too early to tell as I think GFS is too wet. It is leaning on around 18-21" of snow starting early Thursday and ending later Thursday. 1/3rd of this would still be warning criteria for Oklahoma standards, so that's probably where we are going to go. Winds will be strong most of the day Thursday, so that will play in to things as well. Needless to say, today will be interesting as computers come in line and figure this all out. However, the dry slot threat is still there and it can hard to nail those even a few hours ahead of time.

How old/outdated is the NAM model?

How old/outdated is the NAM model?

They are continuously updated. They don't ignore them for years on end.

OUN's forecast is coming out. They are going 3-5" far northern OK, 2-4 in OKC, 1-3" Norman, less than an inch Pauls Valley and south.

Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service norman ok
421 am cst wed dec 23 2009

okz007-008-012-013-018>020-024>030-231830-
/o.new.koun.ws.a.0004.091224t0900z-091225t0000z/
grant-kay-garfield-noble-kingfisher-logan-payne-canadian-oklahoma-
lincoln-grady-mcclain-cleveland-pottawatomie-
including the cities of...medford...ponca city...enid...perry...
Kingfisher...guthrie...stillwater...yukon...el reno...mustang...
Oklahoma city...chandler...chickasha...purcell...norman...m oore...
Shawnee
421 am cst wed dec 23 2009

...winter storm watch in effect from late tonight through
thursday afternoon...

The national weather service in norman has issued a winter storm
watch...which is in effect from late tonight through thursday
afternoon.

* timing: Near sunrise thursday through early thursday evening

* main impact: Snow...with accumulation of 2 to 5 inches.

* other impacts: Increasingly blustery winds...resulting in
blowing snow and low wind chill temperatures.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service norman ok
421 am cst wed dec 23 2009

okz017-022-023-033>038-231830-
/o.new.koun.ww.y.0008.091224t0600z-091225t0000z/
blaine-wa****a-caddo-harmon-greer-kiowa-jackson-tillman-comanche-
including the cities of...watonga...cordell...anadarko...hollis...
Mangum...hobart...altus...frederick...lawton
421 am cst wed dec 23 2009

...winter weather advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
6 pm cst thursday...

The national weather service in norman has issued a winter
weather advisory for freezing drizzle...snow...and blowing snow...
Which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst thursday.

* timing: Late tonight through thursday

* main impact:

* main impact: Freezing drizzle changing to light snow...with
accumulation up to one inch

* other impacts: Increasingly blustery winds on thursday...with
some blowing snow and very low wind chill temperatures

precautionary/preparedness actions...

A winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/1223090701a.jpg

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/4412/fireeok.jpg

Gotta love KFOR's HD. :LolLolLol

how is it 4,5,9 say 4-8+ and NWS shows 2-4, how can they interpret the same info so different?



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Thursday.jpg?timestamp=1261576772

how is it 4,5,9 say 4-8+ and NWS shows 2-4, how can they interpret the same info so different?


I'm not sure if it is a case of the news stations looking at GFS and going with it only and NWS saying "hey wait a minute, what if NAM has something to it?" and therefore NWS being more conservative?

GFS is still dumping 8-12" on central OK while NAM is sprinkling an inch. Cold front is still parked overhead, several hours ahead of schedule...of previous forecasts. There is some indication that NAM and GFS want to start moving a lot of the heavy snow just west of OKC...we'll see what happens. More than likely this will just be the heavy snow band and predicting where it sets up a day ahead is just not going to happen.

From KOCO's blog...


The latest weather model runs are coming in and after talking with The National Weather Service, it is very likely that our latest Winter Storm Watches will be upgraded to a WINTER STORM WARNING later this afternoon. The model that we have been paying close attention to this morning is showing an even heavier amount of snow than previously, although some feel that this particular model may have slightly overdone the snow amounts as it wants to bring in as much as 18 inches to various parts of The Northern Metro. Nonetheless, it’s also hard to ignore this model which predicted this event 2.5 weeks ago. Thus, I will increase the amount of snow possible for OKC Metro to 6-10 inches starting after midnight tonight and lasting all day Thursday.

-Damon

So this will probably mean warnings will go out around 2-3PM when the afternoon forecast package is done and after all 18Z models are in. It also backs up what I just said about the TV stations are focused on the GFS model in predicting this.

Well, I wouldn't want to bet on it NOT being a White Christamas and for the first time in a long time.

Winter Storm Watch in effect.


OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>030-231830-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0004.091224T0900Z-091225T0000Z/
GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-
LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE
421 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY WINDS...RESULTING IN
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1235 pm cst wed dec 23 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern pontotoc county in east central oklahoma...
Southwestern coal county in southeast oklahoma...
Northern johnston county in southeast oklahoma...

* until 115 pm cst

* at 1235 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 3 miles northeast of reagan...moving northeast at 35
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bromide...centrahoma...clarita...
Coalgate...connerville...jesse...mill creek...olney...pontotoc...
Reagan and tupelo.

The GFS has been pretty accurate historically with winter events. That said, if the GFS forecast pans out for this event...wow. 16-20 inches of snow, and high winds bringing near-blizzard to full blizzard conditions across the northern half of Oklahoma. This system has the potential to be one of the most intense winter storms Oklahoma has seen in quite some time...but then again, you know what they say about Oklahoma weather...

-Chris-

Jeff Piotrowski whom I tend to have high confidence in is saying this could be a "crippling Blizzard" for parts of northern OK. If the forecasts hold true....which they look to be doing at this time it could be very near or at Blizzard conditions in the Metro by morning...with strong winds and very heavy snow. Precipitaion now exploding in west texas....and per wv imagery the storm IS taking a southern track. Time to batton down the hatches. just in case.

It's hearthbreaking for me. So much planning for a big family Christmas and now I am waiting to make the call to KC to tell my family not to attempt it. I'll hold off til this evening, but with each passing hour a major winter storm is looking more likely for OKC. Time to go to the store before the shelves are bare. Good luck to anyone in my way!!!! lol

When do the next models come out V?

Too lazy to post the picture, but Channel 5's forecast for OKC now is 6-10"

You can always hope for the infamous "dry slot", and we won't get much of anything.

You can always hope for the infamous "dry slot", and we won't get much of anything.

There was a dry slot in this forecast, until, as Damon from KOCO mentioned, the secondary low pressure system popped into existence!

Jeff Piotrowski whom I tend to have high confidence in is saying this could be a "crippling Blizzard" for parts of northern OK.

LOL...I have known Jeff for years, and he is about as excited over this winter storm as he is over High-Risk days. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

-Chris-

Until the white stuff starts, there's always hope for a dry slot.

LOL...I have known Jeff for years, and he is about as excited over this winter storm as he is over High-Risk days. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

-Chris-

I tend to trust Jeff's forecast as much or more than any other storm chaser out there.....pat him on the back for me, he's done a great job of chasing and forecasting over the years. I know how he feels, Im getting excited too, but still waiting. Like others have said, winter weather is very difficult to forecast more than a few hours out. Something always tends to pop up at the last second and throw a fly into the ointment.

As for the dry slot....I don't think thats going to be a factor ( I could very well be wrong though) The WV imagery isnt really showing that making it up here.

Satellite image(s) [US, wv] (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DSM&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20091223&endTime=-1&duration=0)

Again....on the side of caution I would urge everyone to gas up their cars this afternoon, fill up the gas tank for the generator (just in case), and cover up the firewood. I'm going to move firewood into the garage so I don't have to dig a path to the pile tomorrow. And play it safe.

I have a fireplace, but no firewood. I have no clue what to do with the fireplace. No fire tools, either. I got no gas, just electric heaters in each room. The wind is a factor to knock down power lines, so my tanks is in grave danger.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/progs/hpc_sfc_analysis.gif
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/progs/hpc_12_fcst.gif
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/progs/hpc_24_fcst.gif
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/progs/hpc_36_fcst.gif

Looks like NWS is sticking with 2-4. Locals may start back tracking pretty soon

NWS is now 3-5 inches

locals will back up soon, don't see 6-10, that's the "hype"

Winter storm warning in effect starting at 6pm this evening. Takes up all the northwest quadrant of Oklahoma and a little more, including Oklahoma County.

Message summary: ...winter storm warning in effect from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst thursday...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter storm warning for snow and blowing snow...which is in effect from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst thursday. The winter weather advisory is no longer in effect.
* timing: tonight through thursday
* main impact: near blizzard conditions with snow and blowing snow and accumulation of up to 4 inches in northwest and western oklahoma and 8 inches in north central oklahoma.
* other impacts: increasingly blustery winds on thursday...with some blowing snow and very low wind chill temperatures. There is also the possibility of freezing rain.

There is a great thread on this event on the Stormtrack forum. THere are a lot of pages...go to the last 3 or 4 for the most current discussion.

Stormtrack Forum (http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=22554)

-Chris-

locals will back up soon, don't see 6-10, that's the "hype"

Please Check Here! (http://www.koco.com/weatherblog/index.html)

Probably the biggest thing to keep in mind right now, reading the various NWS offices around the region - NONE are certain what is going to happen. There is still so much doubt, they are just throwing things out there to cover their rear. 18Z runs seems to show heavier snow will be west and south - depending which one you look at. ECMWF is also wanting to take the system further south, which would move the heavy snow bad further south - or it could setup for more warm air working in.

Needless to say, we won't know until morning on how this will all play out. Don't be shocked to see advisories redone by the time the snow starts. Central sections are looking at up to a half inch of rain overnight and tomorrow morning, switching to snow after 6-8AM. NAM takes a heavy pocket of precip just along and north of the Red River - mainly south of I-40 - into SE OK and then pulling it NE at the end of the day with the rest of the system. GFS agrees with this but has more widespread moderate snow back to the KS border. OU's WRF model has precip mainly in western OK and NC into NE - however I don't really care for it with winter stuff. But throwing it in here.

Needless to say...nothing is set yet.

I have a prediction and I believe it to be 100% correct.

There will be around the clock coverage on the storm, roads, accidents, power outage, fire, dumb crooks, and more on television tomorrow.

I have a prediction and I believe it to be 100% correct.

There will be around the clock coverage on the storm, roads, accidents, power outage, fire, dumb crooks, and more on television tomorrow.

Ugh so true. LOL

"Hey look a snow flake! OMG I NEED TO GO RUN INTO THAT CAR."

The ground temperature has been above freezing for days. Even if we get a lot of snow, is it likely it will accumulate for very long?

The ground temperature has been above freezing for days. Even if we get a lot of snow, is it likely it will accumulate for very long?

Ground temps haven't gone below yet...we are still from 38 NW OK to mid 40s here in Central OK. Snowfall rates are expected to be 1-2" per hour, maybe 3 in convective bands, so that will more than compensate for any melting on impact due to warm or wet ground.

00Z NAM is favoring SW OK for heaviest snow now. UGH lol

GFS should be out in an hour.

NAM and GFS are both similar for the most part. Will post my graphic forecast here in a bit. Heavier amounts will be south.

south as in OKC, or south of OKC?

South OK.

Someone go slap Jed at KWTV for me. Please.

Someone go slap Jed at KWTV for me. Please.

So I am correct in assuming he is in fact underestimating this system? Just when I had gotten used to the media overestimating these things... namely 4.

I'm occupied with the OKC Thunder game at the moment...

What are the reports and predictions coming from the 10 pm news stations?

KWTV is going with a sleet/freezing rain situation with maybe 1-3".
KFOR is going with the southern track with heavy snow...3-7" up to 10"
KOCO hasn't shown yet - that I saw anyway.

KOCO just stated she believes there will be "3-6", Some areas 8"' in the metro.

KOCO just stated she believes there will be "3-6", Some areas 8"' in the metro.

She seemed as confused as I am.

She seemed as confused as I am.

Will give her this, she's the only local meteorologist who has really made mention of the different models and really conveyed the whole "we'll know when it gets here" type thinking.

NWS now says 4-6 for most of Oklahoma.

Here are the NAM and GFS snowfall accumulation forecasts for tonight to compare.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_30HR.gif

Another fly in the ointment tonight, which might give KWTV something here. At 12Z (6AM) there is an area of warmer air that is just slightly above freezing around 3700 feet up. Whether or not that causes the crystals to melt or form sleet we'll just have to wait.

If that air stay warm up there, we'll be facing a potential major ice storm... Correct?

Headache is more like it. LOL

Southern Oklahoma upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. NW OK downgraded.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

OKZ027>030-036>041-044>046-TXZ083>090-241300-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WW.Y.0008.091224T0600Z-091225T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KOUN.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-091225T0000Z/
GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...DUNCAN...PA ULS VALLEY...
SULPHUR...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...QUANAH...C HILLICOTHE...
CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...
ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1052 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8
INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOME BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015-241300-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-091225T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0009.091224T0452Z-091225T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA
1052 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

* MAIN IMPACT: NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
AND ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 4 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY WINDS ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOME BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED... WHICH ALSO WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.