12Z GFS is MUCH wetter for us now, and starting to trend colder. I dunno... we might end up getting some snow in Central/Northern OK

12Z GFS is MUCH wetter for us now, and starting to trend colder. I dunno... we might end up getting some snow in Central/Northern OK

Just noticed that. It will be interesting to see if that holds up on the next run.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Developing_Weather.jpg?timestamp=1261255909

With this track, doesn't the heaviest snow fall along and to the nw of the low?
Putting central OK in the heavy band?

I like how the NWS is thinking more along the line with KFOR in thinking that these are possible. Still clinging on to that hope! :-D

I like how the NWS is thinking more along the line with KFOR in thinking that these are possible. Still clinging on to that hope! :-D

More than likely Morgan was playing the model spread on the various solutions that are being developed and placed his bets on the southern track. NWS will normally wait for the picture to be made clearer by the main/traditional models before raising alarms because they control the public alerts that gets the media/govt moving. We'll have a pretty clear idea of whats going to happen by tomorrow evening I think. Depending if we have any last minute swings in the model solutions like we had last week.

Ensemble showing how the models are starting to converge now. The first is the image from yesterday which shows how scattered they were compared to today's which is the second image. Also notice how the trend is moving to a more southern solution than before. I still would like to see the models get a bit more concentrated on a certain track before throwing my guesscasts out. Right now its anywhere from Ponca City to Waco, though before it was anywhere in Kansas to North Texas. I like the setup in SE CO...but I'm going to be cautious until we get some model runs being consistent.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2009121800.east_coast.single.gif

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2009121912.east_coast.single.gif

Last image...this one has my eyes if GFS verifies. Surface temps are going to be HUGE with this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_108m.gif

Diving in a bit more. Looking at the forecast soundings for KOKC...

Animation of GFS Forecast Soundings for Oklahoma City, OK (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gfssndg/sndgokc.html)

Up through the evening of the 23rd, the air remains above freezing from roughly 800 mb (roughly 5000 feet) down to the surface. By 9PM the air between 5000' and the surface begin to cool. It is showing temps right at freezing around 5000 around -2 to -3°C from 4000 down to about 1500 feet and then back above freezing at the surface. This would probably indicate some sleet working in the mix. By Midnight the 24th everything is below freezing except for the surface which is going to be around 0 +/- a degree or two. By 3AM everything is below freezing and should be all snow at this point. By 6AM some warming occurs around 5000 to 8000 feet to near freezing and could bring some sleet back into the mix, but should stay all snow. Sleet chances remain through 11AM and after that upper air is cold enough to keep whatever left as snow.

18Z GFS sure looks interesting now. Really going to depend on how cold it gets and how quick it cools off.

Evening GFS model run is in and has gone warmer and dryer. I'm only linking the time period with the most precip across OK which is Wednesday at 6PM. These images will be dead in 24 hours of this post.

This is the precip forecast with the 850MB (4-5K feet up ) freezing line in blue. You see that the upper atmosphere is above freezing across all but NW OK. The heaviest precip is in SE and Southern OK. OKC is around 0.10 to 0.25" of precip. This is pushing for mostly rain, and you'll see why in the next image.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_096m.gif

This is the forecast sounding for KOKC for the same time period/model run. The big thing to look at is at the bottom, the numbers are air temp in °C. The two black squiggley lines in the middle from bottom to top are dewpoint temp (left) and air temp (right). Both lines you can see are to the right of the 0°C line from from about 7,600 ft to the surface. There is some pretty quick cooling as it goes down to around 2500 ft to near freezing, but then back above to around 2-4°C. So if this works out exactly like this...it will be a cold rain here with maybe some sleet mixed in from time to time.

Everything does fall below freezing by 6AM, but precip in central OK is forecast to be done by then with maybe just some flurries around. Maybe enough precip for a dusting up to 1" across extreme Northern and NE Oklahoma.

http://weather.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/4422.GIF

Venture, don't get me wrong. I still love how you do things on here and enjoy reading your things. :-D

Since I like throwing resources for people to check out, I'll put some from Earl's up here. Great site, been around for ages, and helps you find many graphics.

GFS Snowfall forecast: Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)
NAM Snowfall forecast (only goes out 84 hours): Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page (http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX)

Regional Snowfall Forecast Maps: Earl Barker's Regional Snowfall Model Page (http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm)

06Z run was wetter again and pushed cold air a bit further down. Couldn't get any of the model soundings for the run to work yet, so not sure what it looks like upstairs. Definitely need to see some consistency on this from run to run before we can even begin to guess on amounts and precip type.

Area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
139 pm cst sun dec 20 2009

.discussion...

Westerly flow aloft the next through monday will result in a west
component to boundary layer winds bringing warming to the air mass.
Temperatures monday are also expected to be about 10 degrees above
seasonable normals. A central u.s. Rockies lee surface trough is
expected monday which will increase winds. The approach of the
upper storm from the southwest tuesday will generate a surface low
near the ok/tx panhandles. This will be an anchor for the front
that is expected to further develop as this storm nears oklahoma.
There will likely be a 25 or 30 degree temperature gradient across
oklahoma by late tuesday as cold air begins to move south and
develop from the lift of the storm. With only slight temporarily
variations and small inter-model variations, the ecmwf and gfs
persist the mid-level low pressure from the southern texas
panhandle wednesday afternoon to southeast oklahoma thursday
morning. Both models develop a lesser mid-level low over the ks/ok
border. Pops are now likely for snow in northern oklahoma
wednesday and wednesday night. Snow may move into central oklahoma
early thursday morning. both models have shown slight slowing of
the system from yesterday. at this point, little changes in the
stated forecast for wednesday, but light snow and very gusty wind
may need to be added into the day thursday.

LOL - I've given up trying to guess what's going to happen. Everytime I say it's getting warmer the next run goes very cold. Then I say its looking colder it goes warm and dry... I do think we'll end up seeing a white christmas though. Just a matter of how white!

LOL - I've given up trying to guess what's going to happen. Everytime I say it's getting warmer the next run goes very cold. Then I say its looking colder it goes warm and dry... I do think we'll end up seeing a white christmas though. Just a matter of how white!

It seems the 06/18Z runs want to do the opposite of the 12/00Z ones. So annoying. LOL

I'm a little worried about the transfer to the new dominate low that will form in NE Oklahoma and blast up to the western Great Lakes region. About OUN's discussion, unless i'm still asleep...i'm not seeing the main cyclone making it to SE Oklahoma. Nearly everything I've looked at with the ECMWF and GFS have that low either dying over to moving NE before it even gets there.

Also it appears there was a tech issue so the 18Z GFS is not running.

I'll be putting together my best guess precip forecast tomorrow, however. This storm is going to bust a lot of forecasts. Everything will hinge on where cold air will be able to settle in the fastest. Models tonight are pretty warm still and temps in OKC will be hovering right around freezing at 6AM Thursday, with surface temps around 33-34. So we'll probably end up seeing a sloppy rain/snow mix with most of it melting right away on the wet ground.

GFS and WRF are pretty close in snowfall forecasts. Since WRF only runs through Thurs 6AM, i'm only going to compare GFS up to then. Both models keep the 4-6" snow accumulations in KS & NE, with higher totals in IA and MN. OK may see 1" in the western third of the state. Both are in agreement on this solution.

GFS does go out farther and shows more accumulation through Thursday in the state. Roughly it'll break down like this. Western 1/2 of OK will see roughly 1-2" of snow. However, areas from Chickasha south and from OKC along I-40 to the east and south...will see less than an inch if anything. Again, we'll have rain before hand so the ground will be wet and melt snow immediately on contact (unless snowfall rate is high to compensate). Then extreme North Central into Northeast Oklahoma (north of Tulsa and Stillwater) could see 2-4" of snow...higher amounts will be up in Eastern KS at this time.

So its going to be like this. For OKC to see any decent amount of snow, or even a dusting, the storm system will need to slow down a bit and go further south. The cold air will need to get into the area about 12-24 hours earlier than forecasted right now. Finally, we will really want to limit the amount of liquid precip early on so the ground isn't all that wet when the cold air arrives.

Either way, this is going to be a tough one to get right 12 hours out, let alone 3 days out.

06Z NAM has gone very wet on Thursday now. Indicating an area of 1 to 1.5" liquid precip over Central OK at noon Thursday. It however has the 850MB freezing line back about 30-50 miles to the west of I-35. I would think that we would be cold enough by then, but who knows. This pretty much keeps the trend of slowing the system down with each run. The 06Z GFS isn't out for today yet, but yesterday it had the low just west of St. Louis by Noon Thursday. We'll see how it works out after it updates. I'm sure the 12Z update is also going to be totally opposite from anything now. LOL

OUN's forecast discussion isn't out yet, but they did update their graphic time stamp. "Area more likely to see Winter Storm" is being used for NE and NC Oklahoma. So with that, I would expect at some point today we'll see Winter Storm Watches put up for the counties West of I-35 and North of I-40. I'm not sure if they'll put Canadian, Logan or Oklahoma Counties in the watch...but if the precip from the NAM is to be believed, but the temps are expected to be lowered...they may bring the watch area further south. One of those "better safe than sorry" things - get the watch out, raise awareness with it being a major travel week, and then deal with more specific advisories/warnings when Tues/Weds gets here.

I just noticed that a Blizzard Watch has been issued for most of southeren and western Kansas extending as far south as the OK border and and far east as I-35. There are also Winster Storm Watches in effect for most of the rest of Kansas west of 35. Isn't looking good for my family who will be coming from KC on Thursday. Due to an illness in the family everyone is really wanting to get together this Christmas.....and I know they'll make the journey if theres a chance of being home.

Every Year I wish for a white Chrismas....now I have really mixed feelings.....hows that for irony.

Venture....Do you think my family would be safer......(if its safe at all) taking the route south from KC then down the turnpike through Tulsa? They would be leaving KC Thursday morning and arriving here....hopefully Thursday evening.

Also....anyone know how much longer that route would take to drive?

Not much longer, the roads south of KC to OK are great. Not fully interstate but pretty close. Its also a very pretty drive in the spring and summer.

I'll be posting my thoughts this afternoon. Latest forecast graphic from OUN.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=126141 6809

Thanks Mug & V.

Any thoughts at all are deeply appreciated. With the forecast changing from minute to minute its making it next to impossible for us to make plans. I know how tricky winter weather can be to forecast and anything that is forecast by anyone three to four days out is basically a guess at this time but like I said....it is VERY important this year.

Thanks again, and keep us updated.

:bow:

Here are the snowfall forecasts from the the NAM and GFS 12Z (morning) runs. Any snowfall forecast can't really be trusted. It all depends on when the cold air is going to get here. With the system now forecasted to move slower, warmer air will be drawn up into the area and it will take longer (as long as Thursday AM in places) to get below freezing.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

WSS, just have them make the trip a day early. It's a win-win all around.

I'll regret posting this in about 4 hours when the next model run is done, LOL, but what can you do. This best guess based on the 18Z runs. This is from the GFS and NAM model, so you can compare how they are both looking, but can probably pick out what areas are going to see more snow than others. I think it also reflects just how different models are still, so why doing any forecasting like this is nearly pointless until tomorrow or Weds.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_snowmap-18ZGFS.png http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/normal_snowmap-18ZNAM.png

WSS, just have them make the trip a day early. It's a win-win all around.


Thunder....nice try...unfortunately I don't pull much weight with my sisters boss.

Venture...How come I can't see your graphs?

Venture...How come I can't see your graphs?

Not sure. Showing up fine on this end.

Working for me.

00Z NAM model run completely dries Oklahoma out now. Only precip is Midnight Thursday run with the low pushing out to the east, scattered showers across the state, and a small band of snow in far West Central/NW OK. Accumulations of 1-3" maybe a spot of 4"...but that's it.

We'll have to wait and see what GFS and ECMWF look like. I'm almost to the point of throwing the NAM out totally with these wild changes.

GFS is in line with NAM, except is doesn't do the batch of snow in NW OK. So as it looks right now, nothing much for OK snow wise.

can you give a refresher on the acronyms and terminolgy, venture?

GFS and NAM are just two forecast models. :)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
1019 pm cst mon dec 21 2009

.update...
Some minor adjustments were made to a few grids tonight to better
match current conditions.

Focus remains on the late-week system... And 00z models appear to
be throwing another curve. Nam... And now gfs... Have turned the
main 500-mb low farther n into central plains wed night and
thursday. While both still indicate a vigorous shortwave trof
swinging across the area... The new trend would have us dealing
with a dry slot and sharply reduced precip chances. We will not
bite on this yet.. But will need to tweak the sps and hwo to place
more emphasis on the still-likely combo of wind and cold that will
arrive by xmas eve... And less on the snow and blowing snow.

06Z (Midnight) NAM model run continues dryslotting of Oklahoma. It has two areas where snow could happen. One in NW OK still a small sliver over 2-4" possible. The second will be roughly I-35 to the east that could see a dusting to maybe 2" the farther east you go. GFS won't be out for a couple more hours. At this time, unless things show a swing back to a wetter solution, the higher snow totals in NW OK can be handled by a Winter Weather Advisory...maybe Snow Advisory with mention of some blowing snow as winds pick up. The area of I-35 and east can probably be handled without any advisory, but this is Oklahoma and they issue them for an inch of snow. lol

As it looks now, no winter storm in OK.

UPDATED: GFS is out, and follows the NAM almost to the letter. It shows a bit more scattered snow shower activity in western Oklahoma and less snow in Central/Eastern OK. Things are coming together now model wise.

What causes the mysterious dry slot? Why is this more common for winter storms? Why is it even more common to happen for this state?

What causes the mysterious dry slot? Why is this more common for winter storms? Why is it even more common to happen for this state?

This one is mostly due to the track. Going south like this, it is pulling the dry air over the Rockies down through Texas and up into the storm. I'm half asleep, so I won't go into things too much right now.

KOCO hasn't mention the possible dry slot. This is their latest forecast.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/winter1.jpg

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/winter2.jpg

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/winter3.jpg

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/winter4.jpg

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/winter5.jpg

Morning models are all continuing the same trend. First wave of rain/storms followed by dry slotting of the entire area. Looks like there should be some scattered light snow/snow showers in the area after the cold front passes. A few areas could get a dusting up to an inch if they are lucky.

Thanks for all the latest updates Venture.....while I have to admit I always want a white Christmas....having family arrive safely is much more important to me. Besides....there still the second system due next week that could give us some snow. But with Christmas and all the people trying to get home to loved ones all across the southern US maybe its better that this storm will miss us. I could do without the cold though....BRRRRRRR

Don't worry Thunder...theres plenty of winter left for us snow lovers.

Thanks again V.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU
INTO ERN TX AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IS FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/INTENSIFY WHILE
PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. WITHIN THIS
BROADER-SCALE REGIME...LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY DIGGING
SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY/ WILL PIVOT NNEWD FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK SHIFTING EWD THROUGH OK/TX. INDIVIDUAL
HEIGHT FALL/DYNAMIC FORCING MAXIMA WILL ACCOMPANY THESE UPPER
FEATURES...ONE DEVELOPING FROM ERN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...AND
THE OTHER TRANSLATING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH ERN KS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF
INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD/EWD THROUGH
CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF OK/TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
STRONGER...SECONDARY MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...OZARK PLATEAU SWD INTO PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

22/12Z TX/MEXICO COASTAL RAOBS AND CURRENT GOES SOUNDER DATA
INDICATE THAT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE
CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR RETURNING NWD
THROUGH THE GULF BASIN. AS SUCH...EXPECT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS TO
REMAIN MODIFIED CONTINENTAL IN CHARACTER WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TO LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THOUGH NOT WELL OBSERVED BY 22/12Z SOUNDING DATA...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEPARATE STEEP LAPSE RATE/EML PLUMES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TWO IMPULSES MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD SERVE
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.

A MIX OF ELEVATED AND SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN
OK INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

THEREAFTER...GEOMETRY OF LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELD WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE...SUPPORTIVE OF
REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SAME GENERAL N-S CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME OVERLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000-1500 J
PER KG/...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND A MODERATE DEGREE OF LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED
WITH SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVERSPREADS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. HERE TOO...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 12/22/2009

I'd like to see a tornado surrounded by snowflakes.

I'd like to see a tornado surrounded by snowflakes. Try a snowglobe. lol

hey venture,

i'll be headed over to the fort smith area tomorrow for christmas...are these same "chances" of snow possible for that area as well?

hey venture,

i'll be headed over to the fort smith area tomorrow for christmas...are these same "chances" of snow possible for that area as well?

Probably a bit higher chance over there as they shouldn't get dry slotted as fast. Of course it depends on how far the cold air can get.

Okay you know what. Here is the forecast. Its going to rain. its going to snow. It'll be warm. It'll be cold. There will be storms. There will be wind. It will be light before it gets dark.

There. LOL

18Z NAM model has more wrap around now with snow over Central OK. GFS is starting to show this too, but has it in NE OK. We'll see what the evening runs show.

Ok, what am I missing here? Just watched Mike and Jed. Both are now saying OKC could get heavy snow. One even has 3-6 inches for OKC.

Oops, we posted about the same time, sorry.

kwtv (Jeb) is now forecasting a second low pressure to form in sw okla and dump 3-6" of snow from sw to ne including the metro......lol wtf. I havent seen anything that would indicate that or what they are looking at.....any ieas V?

seriously...this was just on the 4pm news.

Oklahoma weather forecast, current conditions, watches & warning - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports | (http://www.news9.com/Global/category.asp?C=112030)

are they behind on models?

LOL we are all posting at the same time. 18Z NAM run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif

18Z GFS run...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif

Those morons on TV should be shot. Seriously...

Those morons on TV should be shot. Seriously...

There is a thing called follow the consistency in the models. When they do a change like this, you let it go a couple runs to see if it sticks. I won't be shocked if it is gone in the 00Z runs this evening.

I see my old stomping grounds are in for it. PW over 2 inches up in NW Wisc/NE Minn. Kinda jealous... :)

OUN isn't biting on this yet per their 435P Special Weather Statement.

THE LATE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR THAT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY
AROUND WOODWARD TO ENID AND PONCA CITY EARLY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS OKLAHOMA CITY
AND CLINTON. INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

Mike on 4Warn is forecasting 3 to 8" of snow on Thurs. in north central Oklahoma, giving himself lots of leeway.

He might as well say the entire state will get zero to 12 inches. That would just about cover it.

00Z NAM and GFS are continuing with the snow development in Central OK. Will post forecast/snowfall thoughts later after the 06Z run...just to make sure. :)

00Z NAM and GFS are continuing with the snow development in Central OK. Will post forecast/snowfall thoughts later after the 06Z run...just to make sure. :)

Yeah wow, big time change... and the scary thing is that they agree!

The new L that is forming. Will it stall out there or move quickly NE?

Yowsers! Going to be interesting what the morning models bring in. If this is true... batten down the hatches.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/SP/gfsSP_0_prec_42.gif

Yowsers! Going to be interesting what the morning models bring in. If this is true... batten down the hatches.


Mmmhmm. Wish I was back in the Great Lakes with that level of snow. At least they could get it cleaned up in a few hours. LOL

Snowfall forecasts:

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Wow...that's some snow.

watch the 12Z come and throw the low 200 miles west and all we'll see is rain. lol

I like the first graphic. lol