View Full Version : Severe Weather Outlook - Mon 7/13 through Mon 7/20



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venture
07-18-2009, 08:47 PM
Hail core is now east of Bryant along I-35 and 15th and then back to the NNW to Coltrane and Covell.

There is also an area of strong winds in central Edmond, up to around 50 mph right now it looks like.

Karried
07-18-2009, 08:49 PM
yep, it's here. Lightening strikes, thunder and dark, dark clouds!

venture
07-18-2009, 08:55 PM
New hail core developing further south and west of the previous core. This is from Memorial and Bryant to the SSE at Main/Britton and Sooner.

Thunder
07-18-2009, 09:15 PM
I was at work and stopped to take some pictures. This is the leading edge of the storms. The lines is beautiful.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/5383/01247969345674000000328.jpg

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7572/01247969409469000000328.jpg

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/1274/01247969348872000000328.jpg

I took these with my cell phone at 8:30.

venture
07-18-2009, 09:22 PM
Very nice. :)

Warning has been allowed to expire. Also on a side note, working on testing a new chat room over on AC WX... BlaB Lite 4 (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/chat/blab.php)

I'll mainly just be in there during severe weather, so the next time we get any...i'll be sure to be in there.

Thunder
07-18-2009, 09:50 PM
Well, it sure did not last long. :LolLolLol

Venture, can you explain what make a storm go up so quickly then die the same way?

venture
07-18-2009, 11:30 PM
Weak disturbance moved through this evening that helped give some help with lift. But typically you are looking at daytime heating helping things out - since things die pretty quick after sunset when it is the main catalyst.

OUN had this in their discussion tonight:

.UPDATE...A LONE SUPERCELL OCCURRED THIS EVENING IN A REGION OF
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL TROUGH PER SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA. FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...THE 00Z NAM PRODUCES LITTLE PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE
ARE SOME REASONS TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TWO AREAS. THE MODEL DOES
PRODUCE LIFT AND NEAR SATURATION ALONG TWO DISTINCT MAXIMA IN 700
MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...ONE EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY...AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN STABLE...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE FOCUS FOR LIFT...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET...HAVE SWAYED US TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

venture
07-19-2009, 01:02 PM
Day 2 Outlook for Monday indicating that there may be a setup for a derecho event in KS and OK tomorrow afternoon/evening/night.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE OH VALLEY...AS LARGE
AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WEST. A COLD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH THE
SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM
FAR ERN ND SWWD INTO ERN CO BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING FROM WRN OK
NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB WITHIN ZONE OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-45 KT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT SEWD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BAND OF 30-35 KT NWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN
TROUGH AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MORNINGS NAM/GFS PLACE THIS
IMPULSE OVER NWRN KS AT 21/00Z. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
NUMEROUS SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN NEB
SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS. DESPITE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...WEAK WINDS
AT 700 MB INDICATE THE GREATER THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS WILL BE
VERY LARGE HAIL.

HOWEVER...THE WEAK WINDS AT 700 MB...WITH INCREASING NWLY WINDS
ALOFT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONG STORM OUTFLOWS TO MERGE AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR MCS/S WITH COLD POOLS.
COMBINATION OF FORECAST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN KS SEWD
INTO THE WRN OK AND STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THE
MCS/S WILL MOVE MORE SWD THAN EWD. CORFIDI PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE
FORWARD PROPAGATING SPEED WILL BE NEAR 40 KTS. THIS SPEED COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL INDICATE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE. FOR
THIS REASON...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE INCLUDED ON THIS
OUTLOOK...AND IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT SUCH AN EVENT IS LIKELY
...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

westsidesooner
07-19-2009, 09:39 PM
Tomorrow night is looking interesting. I wonder if the orange shade is where they expect the mcs to traverse?

NWS Quote:

TAKING A LOOK OUT TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WELL DEFINED
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALL THE PARAMETERS...INCLUDING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY...WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS. WE HAVE SEEN A
TENDENCY FOR THIS PATTERN TO PRODUCE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME LARGE HAIL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...

&

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/oun/fxc_Hazardous_Weather_Outlook.jpg?timestamp=124805 0703

Karried
07-19-2009, 10:54 PM
Do we get tornados this time of year?

Luke
07-19-2009, 11:45 PM
Tornadoes have occurred in every month of the year in the US.

Sorry. :(

Thunder
07-20-2009, 12:13 AM
Do we get tornados this time of year?

Altho it is very, very low probability at this time of the year for the state, specifically the metro area, it is still not out of the question. A tornado or two can still spawn.

Remember that time Venture did not have such prediction and one dropped near his house. These things have a mind of their own and do as they please.

venture
07-20-2009, 02:02 AM
Probably of MCS/Derecho activity is a bit in doubt tonight, we'll see how things develop through the day.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED/LINGERING ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AT DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
THREAT EARLY TODAY AS STORMS SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION...A
MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY UNFOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES...PERTURBED/STRENGTHENING MID-HIGH LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY MAY BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INITIALLY ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT/POTENTIAL PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NEB AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN/EASTERN SD...AND PERHAPS NORTHERN KS. OTHER STORMS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST
CO AMIDST A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME.

STRONG VEERING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE AND MODERATELY
STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
SUPERCELLULAR MODE...WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK. WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH AN INCREASING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...CONGEALING
STORMS/INCREASING COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS/S WITH AN ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

INITIALLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW/TIMING OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PERTURBATIONS...PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK AT THIS TIME.

venture
07-20-2009, 02:09 AM
Do we get tornados this time of year?

They can always happen if things come together. The threat today though is for a widespread wide damage...which can sometimes be worse than a tornado, but at least you know where it is going for the most part.

venture
07-20-2009, 09:55 AM
Some model disagreement on how to handle today. Majority of models predict storms will form up in KS/NE and slide SE through Eastern OK today. However, a couple models - that I tend to favor - develop a complex and drop it through the western half of the state (one of those even still develops the eastern complex).

Day 1 Outlook update is pretty brief...

...PLAINS STATES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. THESE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM THE NEB INTO
TX...IN BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY ALONG A COLD FRONT SURGING INTO NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK AND WESTERN MO.

westsidesooner
07-20-2009, 11:01 AM
If theres two complexs tonight I'll bet one goes east of us (west metro) and the other west. Its just been our luck lately. Not that I miss the hail everyone else has been dealing with.

venture
07-20-2009, 11:29 AM
New Day 1 is out and there is a whopping 1 line commenting on OK and that is just to say a damaging wind/hail threat should be here before 7AM tomorrow.

bretthexum
07-20-2009, 12:00 PM
New Day 1 is out and there is a whopping 1 line commenting on OK and that is just to say a damaging wind/hail threat should be here before 7AM tomorrow.

Yeah I was hoping for more detail than that. I guess we'll have to wait for the MCD's

venture
07-20-2009, 03:45 PM
First MCD has been issued for Western Kansas - these will be the storms that will roll in to OK later tonight.

Updated outlook:

...PLAINS STATES...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH WRN SD/NWRN NEB...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE WAS MOVING
THROUGH ERN CO. EXPECT BOTH SYSTEMS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD INTO KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SEWD MOVING MCS/S...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE MCS TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB/KS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE FROM WRN/CENTRAL KS S/SEWD INTO OK. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

venture
07-20-2009, 08:19 PM
Upgrade to Moderate risk for Northern and NE Oklahoma, including the Northern sides of the Metro.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM WCNTRL KS SWD INTO PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A COMPLEX STRUCTURED MCS APPEAR LIKELY
TO MOVE SSEWD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST WIND PROFILERS IN CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INDICATE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE IN THE 35 TO 40
KT RANGE. THE WICHITA PROFILER SHOWS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WIND
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 5 KM. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT KEEPING STORMS DISCRETE FOR AWHILE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WCNTRL KS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL OVER 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
200 M2/S2 IN WCNTRL KS...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE SSEWD INTO AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. A FEW VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/GFS AND NAMKF SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE CENTERED FROM NW-NCNTRL OK NWD ACROSS SE KS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA
INTO THE TULSA AREA. HOW FAR WEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NW KS SHOULD
CONTINUE SWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS BUT TURN SSEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY INTO THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE LATER THIS
EVENING.

bretthexum
07-20-2009, 08:31 PM
What a beast of a storm by Wellington, KS. Nice supercell

venture
07-20-2009, 08:34 PM
Yup...developing MCS.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-834p.png

venture
07-20-2009, 08:35 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1633.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KANSAS...NE OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 607...

VALID 210126Z - 210300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 607 CONTINUES.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE ONGOING WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING...THE TENDENCY PROBABLY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY BASED IN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/EAST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. BUT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH 03-05Z...ON THE NOSE OF A 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING NORTHWESTERLY HIGH LEVEL JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A LARGE STORM CLUSTER. AND...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. IT MAY BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO
OKLAHOMA...BUT TRENDS OF THE ONGOING STORM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA ARE ALREADY BEING MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL WW OR WWS SOUTH OF WW 607.

venture
07-20-2009, 08:53 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0609_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 606...WW 607...WW 608...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL NOW IN EXTREME S CNTRL KS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SSE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM IN ERN OK AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INVOF WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IN THAT AREA.
INCREASING CIN WITH NIGHTFALL MAY CAUSE TO STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH TIME...AND NEAR-SFC SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST. BUT
COMBINATION OF EXISTING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...FAVORABLY
ORIENTED BOUNDARIES...MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING
MID/UPR LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34030.

venture
07-20-2009, 09:02 PM
9PM Radar Update....development back by Coldwater, KS now, this will likely be the area to watch for metro impacting. Additional severe storms moving into Grant County with hail up to 3" in diameter right now.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-900p.png

westsidesooner
07-20-2009, 09:25 PM
What a beast of a storm by Wellington, KS. Nice supercell

That storm had one of the most impressive radar presentations Ive seen in a long time about an hour ago. Wow. I want pics..

And check out the forward motion on the storms west of GC Ks. They are flying south.

venture
07-20-2009, 09:32 PM
Radar Update. Storms continue developing near Coldwater and now into NW Oklahoma.

Chat room will be running tonight: BlaB Lite 4 (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/chat/blab.php)

Be aware i'm not going to be doing a continuous chat, at least not until weather gets closer to the the metro. However, I will post warning updates and other notices in there.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-930p.png

Thunder
07-20-2009, 09:36 PM
I'm in the chat room. I might take a short nap (usually 1 or 2 hours after work). I'm home now.

Karrie, did you know there is a Tornado Watch?

Thunder
07-20-2009, 09:52 PM
A few minutes delay. ImageShack is not behaving, so I have to use my Photobucket account.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/s1.gif

Another radar closer to the storms to show the developments popping up west of the Enid storm.

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc92/thunderokc/s2.gif

venture
07-20-2009, 09:55 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
948 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Garfield county in northern oklahoma...
Southwestern noble county in northern oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 946 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
a dangerous severe thunderstorm 8 miles north of hunter...moving
south at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to the size of tennis balls...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include bison...breckenridge...
Covington...douglas...enid...fairmont...garber...h ayward...
Hunter...kremlin...lucien...north enid...vance air force base and
waukomis.

venture
07-20-2009, 10:03 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1002 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Grant county in northern oklahoma...
Alfalfa county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 1001 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe storms scattered along a line from 10 miles northwest of
burlington to 7 miles east of amorita to 6 miles east of pond
creek...moving south at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to two inches in diameter...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include aline...amorita...burlington...
Byron...carmen...cherokee...driftwood...goltry...g reat salt plains
lake...helena...ingersoll...jefferson...jet...lamb ert...
Manchester...medford...nash...pond creek and wakita.

venture
07-20-2009, 10:04 PM
Radar Update

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-1000p.png

venture
07-20-2009, 10:14 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1634.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210303Z - 210400Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 608 SOON.

A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL SURGE HAS ADVANCED THROUGH MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE MAY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS RATHER MODEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT
500 MB FLOW IS STRONG AND SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH SEEMS
MORE FAVORABLE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF REGION...POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS APPEARS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW
AND 05-06Z.

..KERR.. 07/21/2009

Thunder
07-20-2009, 10:14 PM
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/6596/22239205.gif

venture
07-20-2009, 10:15 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1011 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western major county in northwest oklahoma...
Woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1145 pm cdt

* at 1011 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of
capron to 12 miles northeast of freedom to 5 miles southwest of
alabaster caverns state park...moving southeast at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Alva...avard...camp houston...capron...chester...dacoma...
Freedom...hopeton...mooreland...mutual...quinlan and waynoka.

Thunder
07-20-2009, 10:22 PM
http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/8682/91184692.gif

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/144/92077124.gif

The storms appear to be on the way to merge.

Interesting how different radars pick up on different storm formation.

venture
07-20-2009, 10:28 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1026 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western garfield county in northern oklahoma...
Eastern major county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1145 pm cdt

* at 1026 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 6 miles northwest of hillsdale...moving south
at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to the size of baseballs...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include ames...carrier...drummond...
Hillsdale...isabella...lahoma...meno and ringwood.

venture
07-20-2009, 10:29 PM
Live Chat: BlaB Lite 4 (http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/chat/blab.php)

Severe Tstorm Watch including Metro Incoming...

WW 610 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 210330Z - 211100Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW GAG/GAGE OK/ - 20SW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /39E LBL - 15SW OKC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35030.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0610_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 607...WW 608...WW 609...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS NOW IN SW KS...AND ALONG CNTRL PARTS
OF THE KS/OK BORDER...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY SSE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS MID LVL NWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. GIVEN EXISTING
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP AND EXPECTED VEERING/STRENGHTENING OF LLJ...A
THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER SSE AS ACTIVITY
EVOLVES INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER. INCREASING CIN SHOULD
ULTIMATELY WEAKEN STORMS LATER TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35030.

venture
07-20-2009, 10:34 PM
Radar Update

Large complex is taking shape finally. Most storms are moving due south. Immense amount of lightning with these, so that will be a major risk. Large hail up to 3" is also possible in several areas right now.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-1030p.png

Thunder
07-20-2009, 10:53 PM
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8200/11874564.gif

venture
07-20-2009, 11:03 PM
Radar Update - Trend seems to be move compact the complex further west and move it through western Oklahoma, with little impact on the metro. We'll see if this trend continues or if it snaps back and shows signs of moving into the metro.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-1100p.png

venture
07-20-2009, 11:18 PM
Interesting features developing on supercell. It does have an outflow boundary with it, but there is some really strong wind and potential rotation with this also. The White Diamond (all diamonds show hail cores) is for hail over 3.5" right now. Ouch.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-1116p.png

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-wind-1116p.png

venture
07-20-2009, 11:24 PM
Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
1115 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

okc047-093-210445-
/o.con.koun.sv.w.0569.000000t0000z-090721t0445z/
garfield ok-major ok-
1115 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 1145 pm cdt
for eastern major and southwestern garfield counties...

At 1115 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar detected a
severe thunderstorm near drummond...moving south at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of baseballs...
Destructive wind gusts to 75 mph...

* locations in the warning include ames...drummond...isabella...
Lahoma...meno and ringwood.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

This is a dangerous situation. Prepare for winds in excess of 75 mph
and very large damaging hail. Move to a basement... Storm shelter...
Or interior room away from outside walls and windows.

Thunder
07-20-2009, 11:27 PM
Hullo, Karrie!

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3143/19731193.gif

venture
07-20-2009, 11:34 PM
Radar Update:

Damaging Winds moving through Major County right now.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-br-1130p.png

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72009-wind-1130p.png

venture
07-20-2009, 11:39 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1136 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Northern blaine county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1245 am cdt

* at 1136 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
dangerous severe thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of okeene...moving
south at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to the size of baseballs...
Destructive wind gusts to 75 mph...

* locations in the warning include greenfield...hitchcock...lacey...
Loyal...okeene...omega and watonga.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

venture
07-20-2009, 11:42 PM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1141 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Dewey county in northwest oklahoma...
Major county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...
Northern custer county in western oklahoma...

* until 100 am cdt

* at 1141 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles northeast
of cleo springs to 5 miles northwest of canton lake to chester to
quinlan...moving southeast at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of golf balls...
Destructive wind gusts to 70 mph...

* locations in the warning include canton lake...canton...cestos...
Chester...cleo springs...eagle city...fairview...fay...hucmac...
Longdale...mooreland...mutual...oakwood...orienta. ..orion...
Putnam...quinlan...seiling...southard...taloga and thomas.

Thunder
07-20-2009, 11:43 PM
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/307/92212581.gif

westsidesooner
07-20-2009, 11:52 PM
Could get interesting when those two storms merge.

Thunder
07-20-2009, 11:56 PM
WSS, they already are. Come join us in the chat, please! We're all alone.

venture
07-21-2009, 12:02 AM
Radar Update...storms are filling in and developing out to the panhandle. The eastern edge of the storms look like they will stay to the west of Oklahoma County right now. There is another complex developing rapidly in SE KS that will swing through NE Oklahoma tonight.

http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/72109-br-1200a.png

Thunder
07-21-2009, 12:18 AM
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/4647/78284964.gif

Thunder
07-21-2009, 12:23 AM
OGE is now reporting power outages.

Choctaw..........664
Meno................50
Norman............687
Ringwood...........93
Seiling...............53

OG&E System Watch (http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/)

venture
07-21-2009, 12:35 AM
Metro impact with the first line will be minimal, it is moving to the west. Only potential appears to be with the complex in Kansas if it back builds enough, but that will likely dive SE into NE Oklahoma.

Thunder
07-21-2009, 12:45 AM
Choctaw and Norman appears to be completely back online.

Meno...........72
Ringwood....171
Seiling........107

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/1638/s10b.gif

Update:

Meno...........72
Choctaw.....222
Ringwood.....87
Seiling........120

venture
07-21-2009, 12:50 AM
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1249 am cdt tue jul 21 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Canadian county in central oklahoma...
Kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Southeastern dewey county in northwest oklahoma...
Northern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...
Eastern custer county in western oklahoma...
Northeastern wa****a county in western oklahoma...

* until 200 am cdt

* at 1248 am cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles west of
putnam to 6 miles north of custer city to 8 miles southeast of fay
to 5 miles southwest of kingfisher...moving southeast at 35 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include arapaho...bessie...bridgeport...
Calumet...cedar lake...clinton...concho...corn...custer city...
Dover...eagle city...el reno...fay...geary...greenfield...hinton...
Hitchcock...hydro...kingfisher...lacey...lookeba.. .loyal...
Mustang...oakwood...okarche...omega...piedmont...p utnam...
Richland...thomas...union city...watonga...weatherford...western
oklahoma city and yukon.

venture
07-21-2009, 01:17 AM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0611_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 607...WW 609...WW 610...

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OK WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST TX.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34030.

Thunder
07-21-2009, 01:29 AM
http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/2301/s11.gif

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/7416/s12y.gif

For those do not want the hail, enjoy the rain.

venture
07-21-2009, 01:33 AM
Don't be fooled by the radar, that is mostly verga in the Oklahoma County with a few pockets of showers.

Thunder
07-21-2009, 01:50 AM
Don't be fooled by the radar, that is mostly verga in the Oklahoma County with a few pockets of showers.

Don't ruin the mood. lol I guess this is another bust (direct monster impact) for us. Bed time.

Update:

Just slept for an hour, as usual. Anytime I sleep after work, it is for an hour or two.

We had steady light showers that passed thru the metro. I saw it. Some lightning here and there.

Here is what is happening across the state.

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/9946/s13.gif