Short term model guidance keeps most of the KS activity up there, but there are some indications of morning activity around I-35 and to the east. We'll just need to watch where the outflow boundary sets up tomorrow.

Tonight's GFS runs shows disgusting temps through next weekend. There is a front in Northern Oklahoma on Wednesday that will keep temps down and maybe some precip. Maybe we'll luck out and it'll push south or an outflow boundary will come down and give us a chance to break the 100-110 heat we'll have most of the time period.

Venture, I've noticed you use the term "luck out" several times. I wouldn't want that! Luck out generally means bad luck. I want good soakin rain every few days.

"I went to the casino and spent $100 to win. I guess it was not my day, cuz I luck out on the games." Get it, Venture?

We need and want the rain! http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/63.gif

Never heard it taken that way, but then I didn't grow up down here.

It's okay. It is how I knew of the meaning all my life.

We got some storms coming into the state from Kansas right now.

Hopefully those will spead a bit to the west and give us relief.

Those storms should stay east. There is some islolated activity developing now in Kingfisher County and north of Medford. This will be the general rule for the night and morning - isolated pop up showers and storms. If we get a good outflow boundary from the complex in NE Oklahoma, that could help spur more widespread activity for at least a short time on Thursday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1497.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AND
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090726Z - 090930Z

PERSISTENT BAND OF SVR TSTMS -- WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
2.75 INCH DIAMETER -- IS MOVING EWD ABOUT 10 KT. ALTHOUGH LLJ IS
FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS...IT ALSO
WILL VEER AND BECOME ALIGNED MORE NORMAL TO CONVECTIVE AXIS. NET
EFFECT MAY BE SLGT ACCELERATION TO NET MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE
BAND...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER...SLOW
WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR BY ABOUT 10Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO
SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. IN MEANTIME...LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH/HOUR
RAIN RATES AND TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CORES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER S-CENTRAL
KS TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SERN KS...WITH 45-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND CONTINUED/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA IN SUPPORT OF MCS
ORGANIZATION FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL EXTENDS SWD FROM ICT AREA ALONG AND WITHIN
APPROXIMATELY 75 NM W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/NRN OK AS WELL.
IR IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD TOPS IN BAND
CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM ICT-END-FSI. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND BUOYANCY OVER THIS AREA
WITH MUCAPES DECREASING FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER KS BORDER REGION TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR FSI. MUCINH ALSO INCREASES FROM N-CENTRAL
THROUGH SWRN OK...MAKING POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MORE CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT.
STILL...EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS EVEN STRONGER OVER THIS AREA THAN IN
SERN KS...SUPPORTING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL FROM ANY TSTMS THAT DO
FORM.

..EDWARDS.. 07/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

I hope the rain holds till after sunrise. http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/63.gif I'm not done replanting the flowers. I plan to finish in the early morning at sunrise.

You two keep some late hours!! Looks like the rain missed us again. A few showers trying to go up just west of 35 south of Purcell, hope they develop northward.....I think our window of opp. is short this morning.

WSS, I've been up all night and I'm still here. :LolLolLol

I'm hoping for some sort of an outflow boundary somewhere nearby that will hopefully give us some rain.

That should be it. Cap this morning is ridiculous in strength, so our window already passed.

Hey, Venture, this is admittedly not an OKC-specific question, but could I possibly trouble you for your thoughts on the general weather outlook for the southeastern US over the next week? Obviously I"m not asking for something specific, realize that's not possible for so broad an area, but I'm thinking in terms of driving weather late next week between here and SE toward Alabama and FLorida...

Its looking here like its going to be HOT next week, and I know the general pattern this time of year is steamy with the periodic storm....just wondered if anything out of the ordinary might be brewing.

Thanks!

Holy crap....check out some of these temps in nw ok and the tx panhandle....110 and its only 1pm. :ohno:

Surface data (METARs) plot [ict, ] (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20090709&endTime=-1&duration=0)

So, I guess that is it? All we got is to hope that the daytime heating spark something, right? It is the summer and we technically have a very slim chance each day, right?

As expected, NOAA official declared the start of an El Nino weather pattern. Looks like it is expected to last through the winter. Right now it isn't a very strong one, which would tend to put us in a more drought prone pattern. If it gets stronger, we get into an opportunity of cooler weather and more rain. We'll see how this plays out over the next several months.

Some good reading: http://climate.ok.gov/newsmedia/releases/El Nino.pdf

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/pics/ok_dm.png

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.gif

Thanks for the posting on the el nino, Ive been meaning to read up on it and your post will give me a start. Several questions but I'll leaf through your links before asking anything you might have already answered. I know el nino's arent good for tropical development in the atlantic though.

Just noticed that Buffao is already at 98 degrees at 8AM. WOW.

I'm disgusted at how NOAA put most of the central portion of the state to be in a worsening drought. How dare they jinx our weather! I guess they are testing some sort of top secret weather equipment to force storms to go around us.

Venture, that map just does not add up how most of the areas around us seem to be "normal" while a lone portion (that includes us) suffer the drought curse.

Well we aren't alone. Most of the panhandles, eastern NM, SE CO, and the vast majority of Texas is in a drought (extreme to exceptional in southern TX). And really when you look at summer months, the highs usually setup over us or this general area and you get the ring of fire effect. So you normally get the monsoon season in the Rockies, the storm complexes in the central plains (like what is currently going on), and the storms typically dive SE through MO, AR, etc.

Plus we don't really have the vegetation around here that helps to lock the moisture in. We'll need to play a few more million trees to help that out. LOL

Vegetations and trees help lower the temp and bring in more rain?

They help keep the temps down and retain moisture in the soil.

They help keep the temps down and retain moisture in the soil.

Why don't you start a movement for MAPS4?