I think it's time to get the closet put together just in case. So much for watching my PBS show. Looks like I need to keep the weather on.

Starting to show some broad rotation on the storm in Kiowa and Caddo Counties. Area of concern would be just south of Mountain View. Storm is moving NNE.

70 % Here ???? omg

High Risk has been shifted east to include the entire OKC metro area over night.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_0100_torn.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF SRN KS...MUCH OF
WRN/CENTRAL OK AND WRN PART OF N TX...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM SW TX TO ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

ONGOING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WELL AFTER DARK FROM CENTRAL PART OF TX THROUGH MUCH OF OK TO KS.
THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH
RISK AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/ERN KS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
HIGH RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD TO HIGHLIGHT THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE ERN EXTENT GENERALLY
RESIDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM NRN TX TO SRN KS.

EARLY EVENING REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A QLCS EXTENDING FROM FAR
NWRN MO SWWD THROUGH SRN KS TO NWRN OK...WITH MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS LOCATED FROM SWRN OK TO SW TX. ALTHOUGH 90 KT SWLY MID
LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF 50-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ASCENT AHEAD OF NM TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONG MID LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/ ACROSS MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS.
SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT RICH MOISTURE INFLOW INTO ONGOING STORMS
RESULTING IN LOW LCLS...WHILE STRONG LLJ INCREASES SIZE OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. IN
ADDITION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ SPREADING EWD
ACROSS SRN PLAINS WITH NM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL FROM KS SWD THROUGH OK TO SW TX.

FARTHER W INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED THE DRY LINE RETREATING WWD...ENHANCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THROUGH WEST CENTRAL/SWRN KS AND ALSO TOWARD
CENTRAL PARTS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH STRONGER/SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL E OF THE DRY LINE AT THIS TIME FROM NEAR
CDS TO NWRN OK/CENTRAL KS...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EWD FROM CENTRAL NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE
COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY NEW
DEVELOPMENT VICINITY OF DRY LINE WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

What is "shot size hail"? Morgan is inventing hail sizes now.

I heard that too.

I was looking at KOCO's interactive radar earlier today, and it said "Hen-egg size hail possible" and "teacup size hail". I'm still scratching my head..

NWS Norman's HWO kinda disregards the guidance of the people in the same building. lol

855 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
ALL OF WESTERN...NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SEVERE
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
FLOODING
MAYBE TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
UTAH. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH VERY STRONG
WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
SUPERCELLS. VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY MIX TO THE
GROUND IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT. SOME AREAS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 500 AM CDT MONDAY APR 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESUME WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH
EXACT AREAS CANNOT BE DEFINED AT THIS POINT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN OTHER
AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED SUNDAY
EVENING.

Across the screen about a half hour earlier it said Tornado possibility was Downgraded. Is that true?

SPC says no, I would say yes.

Quick thoughts on why so far things seem to not have gone...

1) Early convection was a major point and little cap/sun.
2) Supercells that did developed ended up training or going semi-linear really fast.

This is one of those cases that I've talked about, on high risk days if one little thing is out of whack...the whole event fails. So don't think of this as a blown forecast or that the guys got it wrong...one or two little things threw the whole thing off. Now should they still have a high risk up? No.

If the storms didn't line up like they did, they wouldn't have been seeding each other reducing their intensity. So pretty much, the potential was there...but a couple things were out of order and it didn't happen.

Venture, I'm home now, but the chat is saying to be on standby mode.

I CAN'T TALK! lol

I didn't see much. Little rain, no hail, no tornado, frequent lightning.

Power outage a few minutes ago, haven't been able to get it bakc up yet.

Okay, I'll sit here and wait. lol

Venture, this is probably nothing, but maybe you got an answer for this?

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/8599/stormcircle.jpg

What is that circle? Just a random shape or something else? It made me think of the hurricane eye, but I know that isn't it. lol

It could be a little meso low in the MCS...but that is just a rough guess without looking at anything.

Latest MCD from SPC say they are watching for development in Western/Central OK.

How long do you think I should stay up before the all clear to sleep?

I find it hard to imagine a tornado pop down in the middle of the night, especially after the storms had already rolled thru. How the air mass now, still unstable?

There may be some redevelopment south along the Red River, but I think we are good for the evening. Some scattered raid and storms, but nothing too crazy. Strongest storm right now is coming into the South Metro area but should skirt Norman but stay south.

Okay, it's official. No outbreak. I'm goin to bed.

Couldn't sleep. lol

There had been some developments out west within the Tornado Watch area, but very light. At one point, it did seem to strengthen, but quickly fell apart.