thanks venture for keeping us updated, seriously thanks.

Looks like they are going to extend the Winter Storm Watch more south and east to include the metro, thinking is that the storm is going more south and slowing down, could get interesting.

Wanted to post this as well...since local media and such don't really define what all the million winter advisories mean. Keep in mind, that local weather offices may bend the definitions a bit because, well...3 inches of snow here is more of a big deal than Michigan or New York. LOL I'm just going to paste the ones that we get here. If you really want to read Lake Effect advisories and such - feel free: NWS Detroit/Pontiac - Winter Weather Definitions (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/wwa_definitions/wsw.php)

Winter Weather Definitions

For watches and warnings:

Blizzard
Visibility frequently below 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow, and wind speeds (sustained or frequent gusts) at least 35 mph. These conditions are expected to continue for 3 hours or longer.

Winter Storm
A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill).
(Note: lesser amount of snow can be forecast for mixed precipitation, blowing, etc.)

Ice Storm
A significant, and possibly damaging, accumulation of ice. Normally a coating of at least 1/4-inch, but may be up to 1/2-inch if winds are less than 15 mph.

Heavy Snow
A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours. Heavy snow accumulations are the only hazard expected.

For advisories:

Snow
Synoptic scale storm producing snow (average forecast range) of greater than 2 inches in 6 hours, or at least 4 inches but less than 6 inches in 12 hours, or at least 4 inches in 12 hours but less than 8 inches.
(Note: lesser amount of snow can be forecast for first snowfall, long duration between snow, etc.)

Snow and Blowing/Drifting Snow
Situations that cause significant inconveniences, and do not meet warning criteria. Sustained wind or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibility to less than 1 mile for three hours or more. If caution is not exercised, this could lead to life-threatening situations.

Freezing Rain or Freezing Drizzle
Situations that cause significant inconveniences, and do not meet warning criteria. If caution is not used, this could lead to life-threatening situations. Ice accumulation causes driving or walking problems, but no damage to trees or power lines.

Winter Weather
A synoptic scale storm producing a combination of winter weather that presents a hazard, and does not meet warning criteria. Snowfall in this case does not have to reach snow advisory criteria.

Blowing Snow
Blowing snow reducing visibilities to 1 mile or less and winds less than 35 mph.

Looks like they are going to extend the Winter Storm Watch more south and east to include the metro, thinking is that the storm is going more south and slowing down, could get interesting.

They really didn't go much more south, mostly just east. The metro was already include, OKC proper now is included though. :) Half of the metro is not. All in all, not a big deal as of yet. I would imagine the snowfall in OKC proper won't be much, but the wind is what will push the warning criteria (along with threat of any sleet). Snowfall forecasts though as the easiest way to get burned as a meteorologist. You can be right on the nose, or miss is completely.

sounds like ch.4 is finally coming around to what 5 has been saying all along.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Jonathan Conder

The more I look at this storm system, the more I think it is going to come in on a storm track that is farther south, ie….. more snow for OKC then forecasted earlier this morning. So, maybe instead of 1″-3″ for OKC, double those numbers, at least. This is such a powerful system and the writing is on the wall for heavy snow in OKC, but this biggest question is how much snow is going to melt on the warm ground. We are working on a new snowfall map, that will be coming up in a few hours, but here is idea about the onset and timing of the snow:

Development has started along the Red River. A higher risk of tornadoes in this area today. I've started to uploaded images from GRLevel3 to my web server to pinpoint the area to watch. Unfortunately GRLevel2AE doesn't offer this, so no cool 3D images. ;) So the radar quality is going to be similar to TV radars, not as hi-res as those of us that use GR2AE are use to.

First green outline is the Slight Risk outline. The green line inside is the 2% Tornado Risk, Brown is 5% tornado risk. The little car icons are storm chasers/spotters that are reporting to the Spotter Network. T-Storm warnings will be red outlines, Tornado purple.

Direct Link: http://www.storm-scope.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png
http://www.storm-scope.com/radar/ktlx.br1.png


I'll try to make a page that is a bit easier to navigate the other products available and such.

UPDATE: Made a quick page to post everything here. If you guys want me to add anything to it, just let me know.: http://www.storm-scope.com/

Mesoscale discussion 0279
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0452 pm cdt thu mar 26 2009

areas affected...ncntrl tx...srn ok

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 262152z - 262315z

large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible across ncntrl tx through early this evening if storms can initiate. A tornado may also occur especially if a supercell can develop. A ww may become necessary late this afternoon.

Latest sfc analysis shows a moist axis extending nwwd into the dallas-fort worth area with a thermal axis located in wcntrl tx.
Between the two...a dryline is situation from near stephenville sswwd into the tx hill country. The cap has weakened right along the dryline according to the ruc and storm initiation may occur by early this evening. The environment is characterized by about 1000 j/kg of mlcape with 60 to 65 kt of vertical shear. Mid-level lapse rates are quite steep suggesting conditions are favorable for supercell development with large hail potential. Isolated wind damage and a tornado may also occur if a supercell can organize.

http://services.trb.com/kfor/fire.jpg

So, are we still at 3"-6" here in the metro? When does the next big "model" come in?

Edit: Just saw the channel 4 estimate. I guess if you say 4" to 10" you got your bases covered. lol

Next model runs are going to be 0Z runs which will start coming in around 7PM and finish up just before Midnight.

seems to be heading more to the south and slowing down, if trend continues, we'll see the metro in the warning area by tom.am.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Jonathan Conder

Based on the current position of this snow storm and how the computer models are handling it, it looks like OKC could pick up some heavy snow, with the heaviest snow band being shifted a bit East. A picture is worth a thousand words, so here it is:http://4warnstormteam.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/blog_03202609g.jpg?w=468&h=315

Looks like the Kids won’t miss out on any School, since the heaviest snow will be Saturday morning, but at least they will have all day to get to the sledding hill on Saturday. Feel free to send us your winter pictures at our new KFOR Kommunity.

Again, do not take this winter storm lightly. During the climax of this winter storm, travel in the heavy snow will be very difficult and dangerous, if not impossible. Besides snow drifting in feet, heavy snow sticking to trees, combined with strong winds, may cause local power outages.

Currently one severe storm across the Red River in Montague County, TX. It is moving slowly to the ENE and will eventually move into Love County, OK. Current hail reports of around 1" are coming in from spotters.

Update: 656PM CDT - Some low level rotation is now being indicated on the storm along the Red River.
Update 700PM CDT - Funnel cloud has been spotted by storm chaser in the cell.

How do you all know so much about this stuff?

rod4sooners, are you affiliated with channel 4?

Are you all storm chasers?

Hmmm....so a "snow-nado" might not be out of order here? Interesting! HA.

Thanks Venture and rod for all of this. Even though much of the technical data is rather lost on me, it still makes for a fascinating read, and for whatever reason, I feel it's more reliable than what I get from Mike, Gary and Rick (even though I'm sure they're using a lot of what you guys feed them.)

This is turning into an interesting weather year, to say the least.

How do you all know so much about this stuff?

Are you all storm chasers?

It's what I went to OU for, then got into IT sales. Go figure.
I didn't chase last year, started chasing though in 1996.

KOCO is being very caution about all of this. With their latest update, there isn't much details and the message they deliver is more grim than excitement.

Surely we must have something major! This thread is the only excitement I can find. lol

Spotter confirmed brief touchdown on storm across red river. Add'l storms beginning to form north and south of the existing one.

Since we are on a new page, gonna bring the radar with it.

http://www.storm-scope.com/radar/ktlx_br1.png

Spotters confirm tornado on the ground, NWS Ft Worth is apparently a sleep right now. T-Storm Watch now issued for south central Oklahoma and NC Texas.

Update: 743PM CDT...NWS Fort Worth finally woke up. Tornado warning on that storm. New storm near Ardmore continues to increase in strength.

Still waiting on the evening model runs to finish, right now my snowfall forecast will get fine tuned a bit - but no major changes really. From what I'm seeing, OKC will probably get painted in the 3-6" area on my map, but everything else seems pretty well in line.

Still waiting on the evening model runs to finish, right now my snowfall forecast will get fine tuned a bit - but no major changes really. From what I'm seeing, OKC will probably get painted in the 3-6" area on my map, but everything else seems pretty well in line.

So then what's up with the map Jonathan Conder put out that has everything north and west of I-44 in OKC painted with 6-12"?

3-6" doesn't drive headlines does it? : )

Not everything is in yet, still waiting on 2 other models to finish up. However, from the ones that are available for this time period, the wrap around area looks like it is going to get chewed up by the dry slot quick. I'll wait until everything else is processed before rolling out an updated map, there may be something in there that I'm not seeing in the others.

Lot of things could still be in play. I wouldn't be shocked if areas south of Oklahoma County (Norman and such) didn't get any accumulation at all.

Well, we'll find out here in about 3 minutes!

I'll be interested to see what each of the newschannels are predicting tonight. Let me know what you guys find out.

KFOR was 3-7", KOCO 3-6"...forgot what KOKH had, and KWTV will be up after BBall.

http://services.trb.com/kfor/fire.jpg

http://kwtv.images.worldnow.com/images/10068800_BG4.jpg

KFOR finally got the entire OKC metro areas within the likely track and the 16" color shade had gotten a lot closer to OKC.

look for OK cnty to be upgraded to a winter storm warning before 6AM, this storm is slowing and moving more to the south.

Venture let me throw out this question for you crazy as it may sound...I live just east of Detroit metro airport and alot of not only winter storms but also summer storms that are shown comming our way seem to actually split and go north and south of us in Dearborn...would the heavy airplane traffic currents have anything to do with this or could possibly the difference in air temps around the airport have any kind of affect on the weather directly east of a large airport such as DTW?

Venture let me throw out this question for you crazy as it may sound...I live just east of Detroit metro airport and alot of not only winter storms but also summer storms that are shown comming our way seem to actually split and go north and south of us in Dearborn...would the heavy airplane traffic currents have anything to do with this or could possibly the difference in air temps around the airport have any kind of affect on the weather directly east of a large airport such as DTW?

Romulus is a scary place, so I would split in two to avoid it as well. ; ) Just kidding. I use to live up there, so I know what you mean. I would think the biggest impact you'll see is the lake breeze and which way it is blowing. I know if you looked south in Toledo, they go through the same thing when there is a nice NE wind. That area is really weird with weather, but also sharpens your skills. So many impacting factors can throw a forecast completely off.

Romulus is a scary place, so I would split in two to avoid it as well. ; ) Just kidding. I use to live up there, so I know what you mean. I would think the biggest impact you'll see is the lake breeze and which way it is blowing. I know if you looked south in Toledo, they go through the same thing when there is a nice NE wind. That area is really weird with weather, but also sharpens your skills. So many impacting factors can throw a forecast completely off.


Romulus is indeed a good place to avoid especially at night...no joking there..I do know the weather kind of stalls over eastern Mi. because of the warm air comming up off of Lake Huron which is why the eastern half of the state gets more clouds than the western half...but thanks for your input

Mmmk...here is my updated look based on the models tonight.

http://www.storm-scope.com/okla-snow-3262009.jpg

Some of the snow totals are a little bit lower out west, really this should be placed with an note that convective banding of the snow is going to be key. There will be areas with over 12" of snow out there, and I could probably have painted the whole thing 12-24, but I wanted to keep things a bit more realistic based on what forecast guidance is showing. The heavy snow area has been expanded a bit more in NW Oklahoma, but the eastward extent of it has been cut back. It does look like this system will quickly get dry slotted and shut down the snow machine quickly on Saturday. I did though extend a general moderate snow of 3-6 throughout the NE part of the state as the storm pulls away. There does looked to be a significant wrap around band set, and that is where the larger totals will be. The area of 12-24" is the best guess where it will be. It could be further west, north, or east than that. We'll have to see. I decided to paint the OKC area for the most part in 3-6" given the nature of around an 0.5-1.0" of snow per hour in this area will at least yield these totals. The 6-12" area in NC Oklahoma was beaten back, if the wrap around band hangs on longer, this will spread further to the east again.

So what else could bust this. Slow change over to snow, mixing of sleet, and very wet grounds. Showers and Storms are expected to develop tonight that will get the ground nice and wet. This will impact accumulations. From what it looks like now, precip will cut off early enough that there will not be a change over back to rain as the mid levels warm through Saturday Afternoon/Evening.

Metro Outlook...I would imagine they'll upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning, based on being "close enough" to criteria, though the event really won't get out of control that a Snow Advisory would normally handle elsewhere in the Country. I would imagine the area north of I-40 will be under the warning, south of I-40 will be handled with a Winter Weather Advisory, well this is Oklahoma, so they'll go with a Snow Advisory.

No major updates this morning. Will tweak snowfall forecasts a bit, but they seem good for all areas, just need a little adjusting (at least in western Oklahoma). Warnings were modified, but reasoning for warnings is going to be winds causing blowing and drifting and not snowfall amounts (at least in Metro area). Most snowfall amounts in the Metro will be below Winter Storm Warnings criteria. Severe weather is ongoing in a couple western counties as well, with one hail storm. Other storms are developing ahead of the cold front, so isolated severe hail will be a risk until front passes and change over occurs.

Oklahoma City Weather Radar, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Interactive Weather Radar - KOCO (http://www.koco.com/interactive-radar/index.html)

Zoom out a couple time, get a more wide view of the state and out west.

Set the Opacity to 0% and click Animate.

You get the idea how heavy the rain and snow is falling right now.

I find it quite hard to believe there is a dryline anywhere between New Mexico thru Texas to OKC. The moisture is all there. It is truely amazing! I don't think we have to worry bout a dryline mysteriously appear to choke the system.

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/7228/87342834.jpg

You can see the northern part is spreading into Kansas. Those will continue to move E/NE according to tracking the movement overnight.

The southern side from New Mexico on thru Texas and now entering Oklahoma is increasing in strength and size. Note the shades of the blue. I've been tracking this all night and had noticed it is growing quite well.

The only factor is how soon will OKC's surface temp drop low enough for these snow to maintain their bulky flakes? It'll be quite some time, anywhere after 5pm, unless the storm does something really intense to shove the temp down (kinda like heat burst in summer storms). I do think the cold/cool rain help the ground, with water, the temp will lower more quicker as time goes on.

Now we wait just where this and that heavy bands will hit. :LolLolLol

Discussion regarding Severe Potential...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271150Z - 271315Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NM WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AHEAD OF THE UPR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...AND THEN EJECT EASTWARD AS PROMINENT S/W TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW EMERGES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOCATED N-S OVER WRN/CENTRAL OK WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA /AOA 8 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/...WITH A MOIST/SATURATED AIRMASS LOCATED BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB. PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700-650 MB LAYER MAY EXPERIENCE MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT. THUS...UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS IS POSSIBLE...POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL OK MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

I find it quite hard to believe there is a dryline anywhere between New Mexico thru Texas to OKC. The moisture is all there. It is truely amazing! I don't think we have to worry bout a dryline mysteriously appear to choke the system.

The southern side from New Mexico on thru Texas and now entering Oklahoma is increasing in strength and size. Note the shades of the blue. I've been tracking this all night and had noticed it is growing quite well.

The only factor is how soon will OKC's surface temp drop low enough for these snow to maintain their bulky flakes? It'll be quite some time, anywhere after 5pm, unless the storm does something really intense to shove the temp down (kinda like heat burst in summer storms). I do think the cold/cool rain help the ground, with water, the temp will lower more quicker as time goes on.


I'll hit each of your points really quick. Moisture is there, that isn't an issue. However, as typical with winter storms they will dry slot as they mature. At current, there is no dryline feature, and I wouldn't expect one for the course of the event - we are in winter mode now.

Precip rates seem to be growing on radar because 1) the storm is coming into better moisture and 2) the radars are not as obstructed by landmass formations as they were in earlier areas.

OKC's temp should drop between 4-7. This raid this morning will only cool the air so much. Right now there is only a 2-3 degree spread from air and dewpoint temps, so the temps aren't falling much further until the cold front comes through later today. Saturated ground will impact snow visible snowfall amounts (to the negative) until snowfall rates increase enough to overcome melting.

Question.

Will the cold front come thru behind the system or ahead of the system?

Here is a good depiction where the front is now:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xsp_sf.gif

It is currently not expected to make I-35/I-44 corridor until around 5-7PM. NWS Norman is calling for change over in OKC proper around 6PM this evening. The front will come through and then you will see the low track along it some what, and main snow event will be in the wrap around area.

Looks like icing has occurred in far Northwest OK that is making conditions much worse. If change over to snow takes much longer, significant ice accumulations will continue to bring power lines and poles down at a greater rate.

That junk can stay in NW OK. Snow? Sure. Ice? Heck no.

SPC Discussion on winter storm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0292.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN/NWRN OK...AND PART OF
SRN KS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 271304Z - 271700Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A 50 MILE WIDE ZONE LOCATED ACROSS WRN-NWRN OK
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BOUNDED ON THE WEST BY A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CDS-AVK-HUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET THIS MORNING. BY 18Z...THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL
SLEET.

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM SERN KS
INTO NWRN OK AND THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WEST CENTRAL TX/FAR
SERN NM. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL TX PROGRESSES EWD THIS
MORNING...STRONG NLY LLJ WILL ADVECT COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
SWD WITH SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 18Z. REGIONAL RADARS/ SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED BANDS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO MUCH OF NWRN OK AND ADJACENT
SRN KS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE NM UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO WRN TX.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS...WHILE A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST CENTRAL OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-250 J/KG/ WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES. ADDITIONAL
CONCERN EXISTS WITH CURRENTLY OBSERVED WIND GUSTS /30-40 KT/ ACROSS
NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN-SCNTRL KS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

First batch of precip across Northern Oklahoma is moving north and will bring most precip to an end for a lot of areas. Snow areas are reporting mix of sleet, which will keep accumulations down. Add'l thunderstorms continue to develop in SW and SC Oklahoma and move north. A slight risk of severe weather (hail) continues for all but northern and western Oklahoma.

interstate 40 heading into texas is shut down

From Gary England:

Noon upper air sounding suggests snowfall amounts may be less than earlier thought.... 8 to 16+ NW, 5-7" Metro and starting 8 pm or later.

From Gary England:

Noon upper air sounding suggests snowfall amounts may be less than earlier thought.... 8 to 16+ NW, 5-7" Metro and starting 8 pm or later.

Hum...who would have ever thought that things may be a bit overblown. LOL

Raise your hand if you didn't see that coming.

(looks around and realizes he is the only one)

I have a question about wind chill factors. For example, if the temperature is 37 degrees but with the wind chill feels like 28 degrees, will my plants start to freeze? Does the air temp have to be below 32 for freezing to occur? I am wondering if I should get outside and try to cover some things up. (Sorry if the answer is obvious)

I have a question about wind chill factors. For example, if the temperature is 37 degrees but with the wind chill feels like 28 degrees, will my plants start to freeze? Does the air temp have to be below 32 for freezing to occur? I am wondering if I should get outside and try to cover some things up. (Sorry if the answer is obvious)

Wind Chill is simply what you body thinks the temperature is and how it reacts. In order for things to freeze, the temp will need to be below 32 at that spot...but if you look at the weather report and it says 34 or whatever and you have frost - that area on the ground got to freezing. Unless you have really tender plants, this shouldn't be that big of a deal. Snow actually is a good insulator, similar to how the fruit farmers in Florida always ice their plants if a freeze is expected. The temp of the ice/snow stays at 32 in that form.

Raise your hand if you didn't see that coming.

(looks around and realizes he is the only one)

Hello? What do you think we've been discussing this whole time.....lol

This should be my last tweak to the snowfall forecast.

http://www.storm-scope.com/okla-snow-3262009.jpg

Changes from previous. Pulled back Tulsa area amounts, expect it to remain rain/mix much longer and the storm will start pulling out before any major amounts can occur. I evened out the amounts in the panhandles some. I feel sticking with the 12-24" amount is fine, afternoon models continue to show a good dumping on the wrap around of the storm, so will stick to that. I did chop away snow amounts on the southern end more, though not by much. As I stated yesterday, the amount of water on the ground and the slow change over will keep accumulations down.

There will be pockets of heavier snow in the general band areas, so if someone in the light cyan gets 5", I'm not going to be shocked. The convective nature of the precip in the area, thundersnow will increase localized amounts greatly. So if you get one over you, you may pick up a quick couple inches.

I don't like that prediction. lol

I don't like that prediction. lol

Yeah I'm with ya. I would love a huge dumping of snow, but I gave up that dream moving to the Southern Plains. LOL

Precip should be coming to an end here before much longer...

Loop: http://weather.cod.edu/loops/Southcentral-WV.loop.html

Say hello to mister dry slot.
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southcentral-wv.gif

I think it will continue all nite.

The dryslot should kill off what we see right now, we'll have wrap around later that should be pure snow. I actually wouldn't be shocked if it helps to push colder air in and then sets up freezing drizzle until the snow arrives.

the wrap around and since its slowing down, it will pull in colder air, and snow until late tomorrow afternoon, at least until 5pm. The low will really wrap up and squeeze all moisture out, this is still going to lay down heavy snow from I-44 to the NW.

the wrap around and since its slowing down, it will pull in colder air, and snow
until late tomorrow afternoon, at least until 5pm. The low will really wrap up
and squeeze all moisture out, this is still going to lay down heavy snow from
I-44 to the NW.

Does this mean there will be snow and the weather will be cold for a longer
period of time?

Gosh I hope so. I miss winter. But if it'll rain for a couple of weeks that'll
certainly make up for it.

I'm a nut! Where's the cheesy grin emoticon when you need one...

Does this mean there will be snow and the weather will be cold for a longer
period of time?

Typically drier air will cool faster, so this will bring the setup for freezing drizzle/flurries in the dry area. The system is out of here early afternoon tomorrow. What you'll likely see, as the storm matures and peaks (as the dryline / beginning of occlusion points to), is a heavy snow band setup in the wrap around. Models are in pretty good agreement this will not drop that far into the OKC Metro. Will we get wrap around? Yes. Will we get the heaviest of the snow? Most likely no. it comes down to where the band sets up and any other convective snow that develops, if it pops early south of OKC...we'll have the chance for good accumulations. If it goes north as expected, we'll get little.

Gary England says:

Heavy snow should move into the metro after 2 AM. Winds will increase N 20-40 during the night. Still looks like a wild storm. Drifts are 10 ft high in Tx Panhandle.

Quick update. Dry slot is firmly in place now in Central Oklahoma. Some drizzle is starting to develop over Caddo and Grady counties as expected. Main storm system will start to push through later on tonight with some redevelopment of light to moderate snow across the area. New short term model guidance does not develop any heavy precip over the area, roughly any water amounts will be less than a quarter inch (or about 2 inches of snow). Heaviest precip will continue across Northern Oklahoma and S Kansas. Six to twelve hours out, precip is kept mainly in Kansas with some light snow in Oklahoma except for Far NW Oklahoma.

We'll need to wait and see where (and if) the main snow band sets up later tonight/tomorrow morning for the risk of any moderate snow accumulations.