While there will be isolated storms next few days which may get a little loud, next chance of organized severe weather coming up will be on Monday. Looking at this evenings model data, best chances look to be in Northern and Central Oklahoma, where the fare southern 2 tiers of counties will have more isolated activity. Greatest instabilities at the end of the day will stretch from the OKC area (or just west) due north in a narrow area. Some indication it could just be a strong squall line event, but we will have a better setup here for more isolated supercell activity than farther north, but may not have the best shear. I won't go much more in depth since we are still a ways out.

I'm going to post the same info below as I normally do. Please keep in mind, that the SPC Outlook I link will be the Day 1 Outlook since I want that in the top post and this board restricts editing of posts. I'll post a reply after this with the Day 3 outlook and then Day 2 when we are in that time period on Sunday.

-----

Links:
NWSFO Norman Enhanced Page: NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Enhanced Weather Page (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php)
SPC Mesoanalysis Page: SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis Page (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=6)
WRF-NMM 4KM Forecast Model: 4.0 km WRF-NMM Precipitation Graphics (http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/v2/)

SPC Day 1 Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif

Satellite Image (1KM)
http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma.gif

NEXRAD Mosaic Radar
http://weather.cod.edu/data/nexrad/Oklahoma.gif

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions (red air temp, green dewpoint)
http://www.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif

Is the Ford Center a safe place to be Monday afternoon and night?

I believe they have a pretty extensive tornado shelter/safety system. It'll take a lot to bring down that hunk of concrete. :)

http://ceoworld.biz/ceo/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/built-ford-tough.jpg

It'll take a lot to bring down that hunk of concrete.


ugh, that's what I was afraid of.... that hunk of concrete falling on my family!

I'll keep checking your updates.. thanks!

Is the Ford Center a safe place to be Monday afternoon and night?
Are you going to go see Lil Wayne? I had no idea you were the hip-hop type LOL!

Discussion from Norman tonight for the potential event on Monday. Long story short, if dewpoints can get above 60, we'll have a pretty good show since everything else is in place.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDE STRONGER SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY... FIRE DANGER OUT W BOTH AFTERNOONS... SEVERE
T-STORM POTENTIAL MON AND MON NIGHT... AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE EVENT AROUND THU-FRI. NAM HAS BEEN USED HEAVILY FOR GRIDS
THROUGH TUE... TRENDING OVER TO GFS AND RELATED MOS THEREAFTER.

LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS AREA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. POPS HAVE
BEEN DROPPED TO 10 PCT OVERNIGHT... BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE PRE-1ST
PERIOD OPTION IN THE AFTERNOON ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

MAJOR UPPER SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING W COAST IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
ALL MODELS. INITIAL EFFECTS WILL INCLUDE INCREASING S WINDS ON
SUNDAY AS SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER E CO... AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 4-6K FT TONIGHT-SUNDAY. WINDS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO WITH A HEADLINE. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINTS
UP THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... BUT THE INCREASE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOWED
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BY LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE NE-E WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE GULF BRINGING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR AROUND THE BIG
SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS. RIDGING NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST ALSO
WILL SLOW THE MOISTENING PROCESS OVER THE S PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY TO START MOVING N AT A FASTER PACE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON... LEADING TO SHARPENING OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/S HIGH
PLAINS. BUT THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO THE QUALITY OF LL
MOISTURE - AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY - THAT WILL BE PRESENT
BY LATE MONDAY. CURRENT MODEL PROGS SUGGEST SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S BY 00Z TUE AND MAX SBCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE. THAT MAY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR
TO AN OTHERWISE POTENT SEVERE-WX SETUP AS NOSE OF STRONG UPPER JET
PUNCHES NE ACROSS DRYLINE INTO OK/KS TO SET UP STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. IF DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY END UP GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST... AND STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE... TORNADIC
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. BUT AS IT CURRENTLY
STANDS IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A STRONG-SHEAR
WEAK-INSTABILITY SITUATION AND THE GREATER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE BY MON
EVENING AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES DRYLINE AND MOVES SE. HIGHEST POPS
THUS ARE MON NIGHT.... THEN TAPERING OFF SE TUE AS LINE MOVES
THROUGH AND OUT OF SE OK.

FIRE WEATHER... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO KEEP
RH WELL ABOVE CONCERN LEVELS SUNDAY BUT STRONG S WINDS ARE PUSHING
SPREAD INDICES UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VERY HIGH WINDFIRE POTENTIAL.
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE BEHIND DRYLINE MONDAY. WE HAVE BASED
DEWPOINTS/RH ON THE 12Z NAM... WHICH BRINGS RH DOWN TO 10-20PCT OVER
EXTREME W ZONES LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODEL OFTEN
ADVANCES THE DRYLINE A BIT TOO FAR E... AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THE
GREATER FIRE DANGER LATE MON WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER W. WE
THUS WILL DEFER THE DECISION FOR A FIRE WX WATCH TO LATER SHIFTS AS
WE STILL CAN REEVALUATE AND ISSUE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW AROUND WED AS MOISTURE IS SWEPT OUT. GENERAL
TREND THEREAFTER IS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO DIG INTO THE W BY THU WITH
BACKING MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTING RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS AND A N-WARD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. POPS ARE
INTRODUCED AGAIN THU AND CARRIED THROUGH FRI BEFORE DECREASING BY
SAT WHEN MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO OUR
E. QUALITY OF LL MOISTURE RETURN AGAIN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THU-FRI. HIGH/LOW TEMPS WED-SAT
HAVE BEEN LOADED FROM MEX MOS GUIDANCE AND ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT
WITH GOING FORECAST AND WITH NEIGHBORING ISC GRIDS.

Are you going to go see Lil Wayne? I had no idea you were the hip-hop type LOL!

lol, no Disturbed! We're more of a rocker family. Actually, dad has the honor this time... taking the boys and friends... so I'll be worried all night about them since we won't be together.

Coming up? Korn and Slipknot... heavy sigh.

Venture, now I'm getting worried.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Now, I dunno if I should be worried or not.

Lets see here, how many times this year, the past month or two, we've had potential outbreaks to only be nothing? I wonder if that'll happen again on Monday. We'll find out.

I think that the rain lately stablized the air up above, so it shouldn't be that bad, unless a weather miracle happens on Sunday and Monday to destablize it all so quickly.

Now, I dunno if I should be worried or not.

Lets see here, how many times this year, the past month or two, we've had potential outbreaks to only be nothing? I wonder if that'll happen again on Monday. We'll find out.

I think that the rain lately stablized the air up above, so it shouldn't be that bad, unless a weather miracle happens on Sunday and Monday to destablize it all so quickly.

The key to remember, there are probably a couple dozen times during the year here we are one ingredient away from a major outbreak. May 3rd - was a day that started out as a slight risk day and nothing major expected. As the day progressed, things came together extremely fast. So yes, you are going to have days where the potential is great - they'll throw a moderate or high risk outlook out there, but it'll bust because one thing didn't happen. Whether it is the cap hung tough (which usually means if it would have broke, the instability would have been huge and it would be a major day) or the moisture return was poor.

The light rain we've had the last couple days really isn't going to do much. There are plenty of times we'll have 2-4 severe days in a row come April and may. Usually you need the atmosphere to get extremely worked over to stabilize it, that hasn't happened...nor is it really unstable right now. If it is pouring down rain Monday morning, then we can look at that. A little light rain here and there which out any major depletion of moisture isn't going to do anything. They keys to look out for come Monday is the quality of moisture coming up from the Gulf that night (think 60 degree dewpoints or higher) and a good amount of sunshine - I would guess Monday morning will have some fog and low thin stratus blowing through as moisture increases. Those two things will deliver the instability component that will be in question.

So yeah, people love to talk down how forecasts bust, but when you are talking severe events - so many things have to come together you have to outline the risk when say 5 of 7 ingredients are there even though the other 2 are in question. If those other two don't show, hey guess what...it'll be a sunny day or we'll just get some heavy rain (depending on the setup). If they do come together, praise will be abound for getting the forecast right but the clean up will begin.

Day 2 forecast is out, posting it in the next reply.

SPC Forecasts...

Quick mention. On the Sunday forecast (Day 1) there is a marginal risk of severe weather across western Oklahoma. Since it is falls in Day 1, the first post in this thread should cover that pretty well. Long story short - instability won't be together just yet, but the chance for some hail or wind storms in far W OK and the panhandles. On to Day 2 for Monday...Oklahoma relevant information is in Green Text.

----

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING
THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS NEWD FROM
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SD/NEB. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY MORE NEWD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER NERN CO WILL DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING DURING THE OCCLUSION
PROCESS WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD.
TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF
NEB/KS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY POLAR COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD FROM
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER S...DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO WRN OK
AND NWRN TX BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MERGING WITH POLAR
FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT OVER CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX.

...GREAT PLAINS...

RECENT TRENDS IN GOES TPW DATA INDICATE THAT SLOW AIR MASS
MODIFICATION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW OBSERVED AS FAR N AS DEEP S TX.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THAT DEEPER
CONTINENTAL PBL MIXING WILL LIMIT MOISTURE QUALITY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A RESERVOIR OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ SITUATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
JET CORES TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS BY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG.

OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
MONDAY WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A
SECONDARY PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY A TRAILING JET
STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL AND
OK...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG TOWARD 24/00Z FROM SRN KS
INTO OK.

INITIAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE S ALONG OCCLUDING
PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS. WHILE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR OCCLUDING
SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD WHERE ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. RAPIDLY BACKING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
WITH TIME ACROSS NEB INTO NRN KS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUING EWD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM CNTRL KS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO THE DRYLINE AND GENERALLY WEAKER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS
OR DISCRETE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-35
KT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT/ SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. HERE TOO...STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTING EWD ACROSS OK
PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND NRN TX. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..MEAD.. 03/22/2009

Central OK to the north has been upgraded to a Moderate Risk for tomorrow. Cleaned up SPC outlook to remove any non-relevant info for Oklahoma.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NRN OK...CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NORTH TEXAS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THE JET...CONVECTION SHOULD NOT INITIATE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THE CAP AND RAPIDLY INITIATING STORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR IN ERN KS WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND POSITION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CERTAINTY
THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNE TO SSW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING.

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. BY 00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NCNTRL KS TO ABOUT 75 KT IN SRN OK. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL FROM SE KS SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTH TX. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SRN KS SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE-35 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. IF A SQUALL-LINE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS BY EARLY EVENING...THEN THE DOMINATE SEVERE THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING STORM MODE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WARRANTS A MODERATE RISK FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL OK.

..BROYLES.. 03/22/2009

----------

WFO Norman Noon HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALONG WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES... AND TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE MONDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

I'm getting excited!

Looks like all the action to be north of I-40.

I'll still expect that guess to be wrong. I think the storms will start further west/southwest and move on thru the metro.

looks like more like a squall line event, few early storms would be only chance for tornadic activity.

Looks like all the action to be north of I-40.

I'll still expect that guess to be wrong. I think the storms will start further west/southwest and move on thru the metro.

I would expect development along the majority of the dryline tomorrow. However like rod stated....


looks like more like a squall line event, few early storms would be only chance for tornadic activity.

...will probably be the more likely storm mode unless the cap can hold longer and keep everything from going up all at once. It'll probably be classic March fast moving, quick spin up storms. Though it may be like a few weeks ago with a high shear environment could keep thing from establishing themselves.

I love it that you post this stuff. Thanks!

Update tonight has the MDT risk moved up around the Stillwater area and north. Main concern that caused this is moisture return. Won't post anything else tonight since we really want know until we see 1) what the moisture return is like through the night and tomorrow morning and 2) how much sun we get.

KOCO's last night.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/severe4.jpg?w=426&h=287

KOCO's this morning.

http://kocoweatherblog.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/severe5.jpg?w=426&h=287

And I watched KFOR's prediction still having the moderate risk covering OKC this morning.

http://services.trb.com/kfor/fire.jpg

Venture, could you explain a bit bout this?

1. How can moisture magically jump over such a vast area and be in northern area?
2. Why would the moderate risk only be a smaller portion of the northern area while the dryline actually extends all the way down south?
3. Isn't the energy actually coming up from the south/southwest?

(The above images may change at a later time since this post. It is linked.)

Hopefully we will get the Moderate risk covering more of central and southern oklahoma in later outlooks. My fingers are crossed we see this happen. I want some big a** storms this season.

Yeah, it is totally exciting to see a tornado up close!

Few hours ago, I was outside, smoking, and I was watching these lil clouds floating on by so fast. Now, imagine that swirling around! Now, it's getting more cloudy and they all floating on by fast.

New SWODY1 out. Looks like the Moderate risk is pretty much to the metro, similiar to KFOR's graphic posted above.

New SWODY1 out. Looks like the Moderate risk is pretty much to the metro, similiar to KFOR's graphic posted above.

all right now were talkin, hopefully we will get these clouds outta here soon so we can get some sun to heat things up.

New SWODY1 out. Looks like the Moderate risk is pretty much to the metro

link?

link?

Storm Prediction Center Mar 23, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

New SWODY1 out... Also, looks like a convective watch will be out soon for Nebraska.

Morning all...stupid volcano erupting kept me up last night, so a bit of a slow start today. I won't do another run down of all images and text until around 1PM or so. Quick version though of what I see so far...

Moisture transport from the Gulf began last night pretty big and that is what is going on outside. Low stratus deck is helping to maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s for nearly all of Oklahoma except far west and the panhandle where the dryline has already passed (in the 20s out there). The other major key we have today is the heating that will be needed to bust the cap. The inversion is going to be pretty tough today, but if we get some sun that should help. If the sun doesn't heat it up enough, we'll remain capped until this evening when the main forcing (cold front) plows through the area...bringing the squall line with it.

Currently on vis imagery, which you see in my first post, you can make the dryline out a bit - it is the back edge of the clouds out west. Looks like development of a CU field is under way out there, though it isn't really extensive. Short term models are having a bit of trouble this morning, but we'll see what happens. One has the initiation around 8PM in West Central OK around Weatherford/Clinton, developing fast into a broken line from that point north and moving due east. However, close to early tomorrow morning development fires up all the way south into West Texas along the dryline/cold front taking the squall line through our area as late as 9-10AM on Tuesday. I think the timing is off a bit...but we'll see.

Another model has initiation in roughly the same area, just a bit further south to like Cordell up through Ponca around 4PM with strong-severe convection from Ponca to El Reno to north of Lawton by 7PM. That model though has convection quickly fading away by 10-11PM, which obviously won't happen. So pretty much we are in wait and see mode, but the models give us some hints on when to start watching and what we can expect.

Now your questions Thunder...

1. How can moisture magically jump over such a vast area and be in northern area?

A lot of it has to do with other dynamics, but moisture specifically can be mixed out faster in other areas. The risk area will continue to move around depending on who gets the best heating, where moisture stays in place, and where any dryline bulges may form to provide the best lift.

2. Why would the moderate risk only be a smaller portion of the northern area while the dryline actually extends all the way down south?

Risk areas are defined where the greatest probability is for each category. Hail/Tornado/Wind are all broken down. One area will have a higher tornado risk usually that will push the Risk Category up. It is all dependent on dynamics and the whole 15 pieces of the puzzle coming together for this one thing to happen. Farther north will have a higher risk today due to more forcing and greater dynamics. Farther south will have a lower one because the tornado risk is not as great, and a squall line with some wind and hail is the main expected threat.

3. Isn't the energy actually coming up from the south/southwest?

The main storm system is in the Central/Northern Plains. There will be shortwave coming across the area from the west today. Then you have the moisture that is coming in from the gulf. So really, you have to look everywhere and everything has to fit together just right for A, B, and C to happen.

Seeing a tornado up close is definitely a rush, but is also sobering when you see it in a populated area.

Very Dynamic system. Hopefully these low clouds will clear out soon so we can get some heat/fuel. I just noticed that some areas of Nebraska and South Dakota are under both a Tornado watch and a Blizzard warning. Thats going to make for an interesting day for them!!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif

INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A N-S BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF KS AND INTO NWRN OK WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE SOON.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0240.gif

looking at radar, looks like a couple trying to go up out west along the dryline.
anyone have links to good spotter site with audio and video?

http://tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

They are the only ones that seem to be out today.

Initial activity to the west is attempting to get going, but the cap is going to be a pain for right now. 18Z sounding hasn't load as of yet, so once we get that, we'll be able to see what is going on upstairs and if this stuff will be sustainable or if we'll have to wait.

Tornader Watch (sorry, watched Cars this weekend) has been issued for Northern Oklahoma...

looking at radar, looks like a couple trying to go up out west along the dryline.
anyone have links to good spotter site with audio and video?

Try these: SevereStudios.com | The World Eyes & Ears For Severe Weather! (http://www.severestudios.com/) here is a link to their chase cams
Live Storm Chase Video Network | SevereStudios.com (http://www.severestudios.com/livechase) another site: Tornado Xtreme Chase: Tornadoes extreme storm chase (http://www.tornadoxtreme.com/index.html)

The details...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 54
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...

DISCUSSION...HEATING HAS DISSIPATED THE INHIBITION ALONG THE DRY LINE ALLOWING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN EDGE OF WATCH. WITH VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER ALONG DRY LINE. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054_radar.gif

If that line out west gets going, look for it to back build to the sw, and start moving east, with individual storms moving NE, if this starts happening, look for another tornado watch to be issued further south and west from the current one. Figure we give it 'til 330-400pm, if it forms a solid line, tornado threat will be diminished, and severe t-storm watch is the likely way they will go.

I don't think the current activity will amount to anything. It is really struggling and nothing is able to break the cap yet. I would expect the 5-7PM time frame or later to stick for anything to really get cranking.

Looks like the storms out west are trying to organize a bit, either way, with the speed at which they are moving, and lack of sun here in the central part of the state, think this will be a squall line event.

Looks like the storms out west are trying to organize a bit, either way, with the speed at which they are moving, and lack of sun here in the central part of the state, think this will be a squall line event.

It is March, I wouldn't expect anything less. With that said, sun will be coming out shortly here in the area - most of central Oklahoma is already under clear to partly cloudy skies.

However the current activity is junk. The cap is holding strong and we'll have to wait until later for anything - unless one of the storms can break through (the storm near Seiling is trying). The one good thing so far, moisture hasn't mixed out as much as some had feared and dews are holding in the upper 50s and even some 60-61 readings now.

Activity in Major County is showing signs of being able to get established. This storm is in the watch area now and will be the one to watch for now.

UPDATE 3:24PM: No major changes with the outlook. Moderate risk still comes down to northern Oklahoma and Canadian Counties. Storm complex in Grant and Alfalfa counties is now severe warned. Hails looks marginal at best right now. Dryline continues to march east, but has slowed as expected. Most of central OK is now baking pretty well under clear/PC skies. Dews are steady in the mid 50s to near 60 in most areas.

Thx, Venture.

I also want to note that the KFOR's graphic posted was changed (it is linked as they replaced the graphic).

KOCO's back with the LIVEBLOGGING THE STORMS!

KOCO.com - Weather Blog (http://www.koco.com/weatherblog/index.html)

Send them an email (weather@koco.com) with anything you witness (pix is great too) to them and Ryan will get them posted. There is comments to read and post.

Check out the Interactive Radar!

Oklahoma City Weather, Oklahoma Weather, Forecast & Weather Maps - KOCO Oklahoma City's Channel 5 (http://www.koco.com/weather/grid.html#HEARSTWX=http%3A//www.koco.com/weather/16749058/iframe.html%3Fqs%3D%3Blongname%3DInteractive%2520R adar%3Bshortname%3DInteractive)

If that link doesn't work, then go to Oklahoma City Weather, Oklahoma Weather, Forecast & Weather Maps - KOCO Oklahoma City's Channel 5 (http://www.koco.com/weather/grid.html) and click on Interactive.

There are neat things that can be done with the radar!

Right now, it looks like storms is trying to fire up a bit south/southwest of the metro. If successful, it could be really deadly! Seems so far these have the potential to be supercells.

Thunder since you seem to really get into this stuff...check out GRLevelX Main Page (http://www.grlevelx.com). You can trial the software for 21-days. I think you may really enjoy that. I use GRLevel2 Analyst Edition which really gets into the high res stuff, but GRLevel3 is pretty much all your basic data that you see online. If you need any help with, feel free to hit me up.

21 days trial? Maybe there is a serial/registration key sumwhere to unlock it forever. lol

Dang straight, I luv all of this! I wanted to take up stormchasing and go to school for it. I emailed all the stations a few years ago, asking if they would hire a deaf dude. I got no response, so the dream was buried. lol

21 days trial? Maybe there is a serial/registration key sumwhere to unlock it forever. lol

Dang straight, I luv all of this! I wanted to take up stormchasing and go to school for it. I emailed all the stations a few years ago, asking if they would hire a deaf dude. I got no response, so the dream was buried. lol

The developer's name is Mike and he is on their forums every day. All user input is how he puts the program together. It is probably the most affordable radar program you'll ever find for what it can actually do. Stealing it isn't really the right way to respect the author of this product. :)

I know. I'm just used to getting everything for free. lol

I'll save the trial for when a day comes to be really promising for an outbreak.

line developing west of metro, looks like squall line will be the result, tornado risk will deminish.

line developing west of metro, looks like squall line will be the result, tornado risk will deminish.

So quick to dismiss the tornado threat, as marginal as it is. Any isolated surface based storms will still carry a tornado threat until line solidifies and storms get outflow dominant. Should have a watch in the next 1-2 hours.

If they were farther apart, I'd be more excited at the possibility of tornadoes, but with them forming in a line, they will choke each other off, and with the sun setting in a couple hrs, they will lose the heating of the day. Never the less the local tv stations will continue the hype, break out the drinking games.

New MD is out, mentions tornado threat extending south.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 242 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0242.html)

Looks like tornado threat sticks pretty well with the 20Z Outlook. Main risk shouldn't go much further south than I-40, though some nice backing of the winds all ahead of the dryline. Spacing of storms isn't horrible, but the key is going to be getting them surface based which will be a little rough.

Warnings for Oklahoma, Oklahoma : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/US/OK/025.html#TOW)

There's your tornader watch for ya Venture!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0056_radar.gif

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54...WW 55...

DISCUSSION...TCU/CBS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE KS/OK BORDER TO JUST EAST OF CDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

And I'm off to work! Sad to miss all the excitement!

Warnings for Oklahoma, Oklahoma : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/US/OK/025.html#TOW)

There's your tornader watch for ya Venture!

TY. : ) Details up now.

Activity continues along the dryline. Strongest storms now are near Blackwell in Kay County; near Salt Fork in Garfield County; and the best looking east of Geary in NW Canadian County.

Storm moving west of Okarche in the area where Candian, Blaine, and Kingfisher counties all touch is showing increased rotation with it. It is now severe warned.

Update: 5:49PM...Storm structure is a little less organized, which is going to happen in high shear environments. Hail size estimate up to 1.50" and most of that is out in open country. Hail core is bobbling around a bit and may stay south of Kingfisher.

Update 5:54PM...Some reorganization. Rotating is back up. This is 5.39nm NW of Okarche and 8.90nm SW of Kingfisher. There is a cell due south of it that it is merging with it appears, so that will impact it some and may delay any fast spin ups.

Update 6:14PM...Storm merge is complete, and it has organized into an arch shape storm. Rotation is increasing with the storm. Marginal severe hail was reported in Kingfisher proper per Norman WFO over HAM radio.

Update 6:19PM...Continued evolution of the storm. Two hook echoes on the storm right now. One is 4 miles ENE of Kingfisher, the other is 7.5 miles east of Kingfisher. Rotation is pretty broad, but it is there. Crescent looks to be int he main path right now.

Update 6:23PM...Next storms to watch will be E Kiowa County south of Mountain View and NE of Copperton, hail up to marginal limits right now with it. Next is in Jackson County south of Altus...small hail, heavy rain and some wind (not like we all don't have that already LOL). Further north the Kingfisher County/Logan County storm is elongated right now - welcome to shear - but is maintaining intensity. Broad rotation is now north of State Route 33.

Update 6:36PM...Kingfisher/Logan Storm is attempting to get some better structure, but really broad rotation. Some indications from the latest discussion out of Norman is that conditions may be turning more unfavorable for storm development as the cap restrengthens before the cold front gets here. Things do appear to be pretty static, so if this bumps the storms back down or if it just continues to slow development down, we'll wait and see.

Edits - Updating to include links for live video online for those chasing it.

http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

http://tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

Tornado Warning for Logan County

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF CRESCENT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CRESCENT AND MULHALL.

Update 645PM: Another warning for Jackson County, Svr Tstm....also sounds like Tillman Co will get warned as well.

Update 6:48PM: Storm near Crescent seems to be holding its own. KWTV did show a brief funnel cloud with this storm.

Update 652PM: Kiowa, Tillman, Comanche storms are now warned...more of a glob of them.

Update 658PM: Logan Co Storm rotation has tightened up. 3.82mi ENE of Crescent, 7.77mi SW of Mulhall.

Update 711PM: Logan/Payne County storm is still rotating but spotters are reporting outflow dominant right now, which will explain why any wall cloud formations were undercut fast. Farther south, pretty large hail heading for Altus.

Anyone own a fence company? My 3 month old fence has a snapped wooden post. The homebuilder does not warranty the fence as damage is inevitable with the hardcore winds here. Although the fence company put in a faulty post because it has knots on the corners, therefore the stress from the wind created a crack in the weak knot.

Didn't mean to go off topic, but this is a result of the weather we are experiencing right now.

Tex, May want to place your post into a different relevant thread.

Stillwater bound storm is hanging tough. Decent hail core with it, tornado threat appears to be very slim at this time.

Hook echo on Comanche Co storm, power flashes in Lawton.

Update 900PM: Severe storm with strong winds and extremely large hail continues moving east away from Lawton towards Rush Springs. Hail up to 2.35" with this storm.

those are going pretty much east though. they'll miss the metro to the south, right?

The north portion may hit the southern Metro around Noble, Slaughterville, and Purcell. There are two other storms behind this one a little bit north.