Deja Vu:
They're talking some snow/ice in Oklahoma toward the weekend.
Didn't we go through this the last time there was a severe weather thread on a Monday.

So... can I go watch a movie now and stop worrying about the kids at the Ford Center?

Three main areas of storms right now.

1) Strong storm moving into souther McClain will impact Wayne, Maysville, and maybe Purcell. Hail to peas and dimes, lotta water though.

2) Large complex of strong to severe storms in Caddo County move ENE will be into Oklahoma and Cleveland Counties in an hour or so. First main area with potentially severe hail over an inch is just east of Gracemont. The second major area is between Broxton to Stecker. Hail is larger here estimated over 2". There is some rotation in this second area, but mainly just expect strong damaging winds and the large hail with the mesocyclone.

3) Last area is a line kinda from Eakly to Cordell to Rocky to Sentinel to Retrop to Willow. Mostly in Wa****a County. Most significant area will be by Rocky with some marginal severe hail if any. Other pockets along the line may have heavy rain and pea sized hail.

UPDATE 10:18PM - #2 has now been severe warned in Caddo and Grady counties.

UPDATE 10:34PM - Activity is on an increase right now, likely due to the approaching system. Area #3 is now severe warned out west. Additional showers are developing in NC Oklahoma again.

I'm home. Gosh, I'm so tired. lol No rain until the last hour, we got a lil lite rain. That was it. Now, I'm gonna go see whats up. lol

TORNADOES IS COMING!!!

Huge supercells is getting stronger and coming our way!

Relax bud. :) Here is the run down.

Storm #1, well complex will be the Canadian/Grady storm. Strong portion is just east of Chickasha now. Well defined gust front on this, so this is OUTFLOW dominant. No chance for a tornado right now. There is EXTREMELY strong winds and hail up to 1.92". This portion will likely track over Norman, Blanchard, and Noble. Another smaller hail core is just west of Newcastle right now with hail around 0.85".

Storm #2, is in Caddo County has reoriented and broke off from the line that was #3 in my previous post. Hail over 1.5" to the NW of Binger and SW of Hinton. Another core is just east of Alfalfa.

Storm #3, is in Wa****a County east of Cordell. Hail around 1.28".

UPDATE 11:04PM - Cleveland and McClain Counties are now warned for Storm #1. Golf balls and 65 mph winds.

These storms have impressive hooks.

Yeah, but they are all outflow dominant. You can make out the outflow boundaries on them when you have the radar sensitivity turned way up.

So with the one that just came through Norman. Roughly nickel to quarter sized hail provided a good downpour for about 5 minutes...couple piles a few inches deep on the ground. Wind was tolerable.

haven't had any tornadoes today, don't think we will see any, high winds,heavy rain, and hail will be the worst of it.

These storms have impressive hooks.

I like to call it "getting heavy". These storms get these southern definitions on them and then tend to go from traveling NE to sagging more straight East due to the curvature of the earth. LOL, they're slippin down toward the equator! The storm out near El Reno is growing bigger by the minute and also is turning more due east. And now there's more storm development behind it--the Hinton storm, the Weatherford storm, the Clinton storm and the Elk City storm. It will be interesting to see what happens with those and which direction they end up going. It's been raining where I live for quite some time and I don't see it ending anytime soon...

TVS (tornado vortex signature) keeps poping off and on on some of these storms.

Isn't it true that when a storm shift eastward, the chance of producing a tornado goes up?

Isn't it true that when a storm shift eastward, the chance of producing a tornado goes up?

Yes, but of course, the chances are far greater during the day. Venture talking of outflow boundaries is definitely a good thing. 'Night of the Twisters' was a good book and something I do not want to go through in real life.

Typically a storm that starts "turning right" is because the storm is rotating and there is the risk of a higher tornado chance.

Next severe storm will come into OKC/Moore area in the next half hour. Hail isn't too big with it, wind should be up around 50-60mph. Storms continue to develop along I-40 and move ENE.

Short term model guidance has a decent hold on things right now, but had the storms a bit further north. It does however redevelop storms in Western Oklahoma has the Cold Front plows through later tonight, so areas where the storms have already passed over this evening, will likely get a second shot around 3-5AM.

I understand about the outflow. A storm need more inflow to produce a tornado. So far, the outflow is greater than the inflow.

I'm curious, have there ever been an outflow tornado? Is that like when a tornado rotate the opposite direction?

Outflow would undercut the rotation, so it'll likely never happen unless it was an extremely complex storm. I've seen storms that would be outflow dominant on one end, but have enough inflow on a far southern tip to still make it happen. It doesn't last long there. Here is an image from about 10 minutes ago I outlined where you have to look at the more detailed image with all the clutter to see the outflow.

http://www.flytol.com/coppermine/albums/userpics/10001/okcstorms-outflow.jpg

The dryline was pushed further back, so expect more storms to continue overnight.

Now, we got more storms later thru the week.

SNOW/ICE/FREEZE THIS WEEKEND?!

:LolLolLol

Oh no Mister Bill, it's headed for the Cone of Silence!

Probably last update for tonight and we can call this one good.

Cold front is moving through the state, should be in the OKC area around 3AM...ish. At 1:22AM it extends from Manchester to Jet to Fairview to Putnam to Elk City to Mangum to east of Hollis. Ahead of the front thunderstorms continue to develop as well as other ongoing precip that developed earlier. Back edge of the storms and precip is from Hobart to Cordell to Weatherford to Greenfield to Hennessey to Tonkawa to Newkirk. Storms contain some hail, extremely heavy rain, and wind is still up there - most isn't convective in nature though.

Outlook for the rest of the night looks like marginally severe and more rain. Nothing terrible for us.

Venture, do you think this is going to be an active storm season? Seems like when we don't have much of a winter, this happens. My main concern is tornadoes.

If Nam and Gfs are correct, we could get a decent amount of snow here in the metro Friday and Saturday. Classic heavy snow track if it stays on current projection.

Question is...will it all stick? I doubt it. Ground been too warm lately.

if it hits like it looks like it will, there will be lots of it, and it won't have time to melt, the low will be close by, and pulling in colder air, keeping temps around freezing. Wind will make drifts too. Keep an eye on it if traveling.