# Civic Matters > Ask Anything About OKC >  OKC Losing Population?

## progressiveboy

Saw this in the Tulsa World.  Are professionals leaving town for greener pastures and opportunities? I would hate to see OKC lose it's momentum.



http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/l...3469840.html#6

----------


## stile99

Truthfully, we've just about gotten to the point where if they aren't, they probably should be looking into it.  It's not just teachers any more.  Cheap cost of living sorta loses a bit of the shine when the state is broke and essential services are being cut if not entirely eliminated.  Imagine the condition of our roads and bridges the last decade or so.  That will be the condition across other services as well.

----------


## bchris02

Nm

----------


## Jake

Guess we'll have to wait for the actual census estimate of the population to find out.

----------


## catch22

I doubt we are losing population. Things have to be pretty bad for that to happen. Even if no one moved to OKC, you'd still have population growth due to the birth rate outpacing deaths. Things may have _slowed_, but I doubt our population is decreasing. 

Anecdotal, but when I was dropping off my moving truck several weeks ago, I was behind two gentlemen who were dropping theirs off from CO Springs. They mentioned that they could no longer afford CO, and did some research on neighboring states and found OKC fit their needs perfectly, and cost of living was a huge factor. 

Cost of living was a huge factor for us in our return, as well as just being home.

----------


## billokc

Yeah, if you're going to live in Colorado, you need to have deep pockets and a very healthy paycheck.

----------


## KayneMo

Doesn't seem likely to me that OKC is losing population. The city has been growing by about 10,000 every year since the 2010 Census, and according to the BLS, the metro's total employment increased by nearly 8,000 from Sept 2016 - Sept 2017.

----------


## stile99

I think there might be two different topics going on, and that's probably due in part to the poor title choice.  Population as a whole?  Yeah, I really doubt it too.  But the link was for a very very very limited sample size, based on the locations people have in their profile on LinkedIn.  Then the question was posed if OKC is losing 'professionals'.  Do I think the Facebook of HR staff is really much of an indication of anything?  Not really.  But it's still a valid question, and a valid concern.  I know about as many people staying here and trying to make a go of it as I do people who have left, exactly as the question proposed, for "greener pastures or better opportunities".

----------


## bradh

We left because of education but had kinda a special case. We absolutely LOVE OKC, but honestly a LOT needs to change at the state level for OKC to really make the next leap forward.  It's a shame actually.

----------


## Midtowner

Right. This is about people with LinkedIn accounts.  I'm sure my family would be looking at relocating if it wasn't for my profession and client base.  I'm really worried about what my kid is going to have as far as education goes and will probably have to go the private route because the state of public education in this state and especially this city is abysmal.

----------


## BG918

I think the state is at a turning point.  Having these kind of financial troubles when the country is in the midst of the best post-recession economic growth since the depression is crazy, and just shows what a terrible job the leaders have done in managing the budget and catering to special interests mainly the oil and gas lobbyists.  People of Oklahoma should be fed up and vote these clowns out.  If that happens the state can stabilize and eventually right many of these wrongs.  Tennessee was in a similar situation and was able to overcome it and is now one of the faster growing states.

 If the people don’t make that change then this state will continue to slide into mediocrity right up (down?) there with Alabama, West Virginia and Mississippi.  How many professionals and corporations do you see moving to Alabama, West Virginia and Mississippi?

The saddest part is Oklahoma should be a wealthy state just because of its vast oil and gas reserves.  Companies are going to drill in Oklahoma might as well tax them at least as much as Texas.  Most states would kill to have a similar situation.

----------


## OkiePoke

If the school funding issue isn't fixed, I will most likely be leaving by the time I have kids that are school aged.

----------


## bchris02

> I think the state is at a turning point.  Having these kind of financial troubles when the country is in the midst of the best post-recession economic growth since the depression is crazy, and just shows what a terrible job the leaders have done in managing the budget and catering to special interests mainly the oil and gas lobbyists.  People of Oklahoma should be fed up and vote these clowns out.  If that happens the state can stabilize and eventually right many of these wrongs.  Tennessee was in a similar situation and was able to overcome it and is now one of the faster growing states.


Yes, the people should be fed up but Oklahomans as a whole are hardcore, ideologically Republican so it's unlikely that there will be many changes.  All the current crop or legislators have to do is wave Bibles and smear their opponents as being "leftists who don't represent Oklahoma values" and they will easily win re-election.  This is why I think things are going to get much worse before they get better.  Many people here would live in a cardboard box before they would vote for a Democrat.

Oklahoma City has been very resilient considering the situation at the state level but there are signs that may be changing, unfortunately.

----------


## BG918

It’s sad that government has failed so horribly in Oklahoma.  With a better funded secondary education system (higher teacher pay and per pupil spending) and adequate funding for higher education, transportation, health and other services, Oklahoma could be a true alternative for people and companies looking for lower cost of living in a central location with a humid subtropical climate (no harsh winters).  Without those adequately funded core services though it is difficult to attract anything other than call centers or other “lowest common denominator” employers because a quality education system is that important.  At least get the state to the same level as our neighbors.

----------


## cinnamonjock

Would electing a moderate republican governor (i.e. Cornett) do anything to change this? I think we can expect some disruption in state legislature during the next election cycle, but it is difficult for republicans in small districts to win primaries as moderates and, as you said, many people in the state will not vote outside their party, leaving us with many far-right politicians that serve mainly to obstruct progress. I'm curious as to how much influence the governor has in all of this though.

----------


## Bunty

> Yeah, if you're going to live in Colorado, you need to have deep pockets and a very healthy paycheck.


But Denver was one of the top cities LinkedIn members are moving to.

----------


## bchris02

> Would electing a moderate republican governor (i.e. Cornett) do anything to change this? I think we can expect some disruption in state legislature during the next election cycle, but it is difficult for republicans in small districts to win primaries as moderates and, as you said, many people in the state will not vote outside their party, leaving us with many far-right politicians that serve mainly to obstruct progress. I'm curious as to how much influence the governor has in all of this though.


It would be a step in the right direction.  I think Cornett is as close to a moderate, non-partisan governor as this state is going to get and that is who I am supporting.  He seems to understand things like economic growth and what is necessary to get this state back on the right path.  Meanwhile you have people like Dan Fisher who is waving a Bible and promising to double down on everything that the legislature has already been doing i.e. focus on social issues important to the Baptists, cutting government services, and giving further tax breaks to corporations and the wealthy.




> But Denver was one of the top cities LinkedIn members are moving to.


Having lived in other cities, I can say that yes, there is a cost of living difference but I think a lot of people here over-exaggerate it.   There is also a "quality of living" factor at play as well and this is where Oklahoma as a whole is headed in the wrong direction.  Right now it seems like Texas offers an excellent balance which is why they have been so successful.  Colorado is more expensive but it's also Colorado.  It would be amazing to have the kind of amenities in your backyard, both natural and man-made, that you get in the Denver metro area.  I am certain far eastern Colorado, on the plains, offers a cost of living that's quite low.

----------


## Bunty

> Would electing a moderate republican governor (i.e. Cornett) do anything to change this? I think we can expect some disruption in state legislature during the next election cycle, but it is difficult for republicans in small districts to win primaries as moderates and, as you said, many people in the state will not vote outside their party, leaving us with many far-right politicians that serve mainly to obstruct progress. I'm curious as to how much influence the governor has in all of this though.


I doubt it.   I think Gov. Fallin has become on the moderate side and hasn't been getting anywhere for the most part.  Her tax reform plan didn't even get so much as a committee hearing.  It would effect everybody.  I think a tax reform plan that would not adversely affect most people would be easier to pass, especially if left up to a vote of the people.   A for instance would be to raise GPT to  at least 5% and raise the income tax on high income people by 1%.

Change is going to have to come from the legislative level.  As long as they want to do much more than merely serve as an echo in the current legislative chambers, more people should consider running for legislator next year.  The incumbents may be so unpopular by the end of the next session a rotten pineapple on the ballot could beat them.   Rarely does that happens and if it does, it should be taken advantage of by good people concerned about the future of Oklahoma.

----------


## BG918

Article in the Tulsa World how the situation at the state capital is affecting development in downtown Tulsa: http://www.tulsaworld.com/homepagela...1bd835d5e.html

From the article:



> When Oklahoma doesn’t adequately fund education, “we’re telling people that we aren’t serious about our future,” the developer said, “so why should anyone invest in it? If we don’t invest in ourselves, no one else will.”

----------


## Bunty

It only takes 5 legislators to change their minds and vote yes.  It may yet be decided in another vote to raise gas taxes and other taxes in that bill by Christmas.

----------


## stile99

If the people allow these idiots to sit there with their thumbs up their butts until Christmas, at $30K/day, then we really deserve what we have.

----------


## HangryHippo

Blair Humphreys tweeted that Oklahoma is giving away approximately $750 million each year because of the favorable tax rate oil companies receive in Oklahoma compared to the going rate in North Dakota.  Now I understand there are oil differences and such that people more intimately familiar with the industry could expound on, but there's no reason these wells are being taxed at 1%.  It's shameful.

----------


## traxx

I think everyone just needs to pump the brakes here. People tend to overreact on these boards . We love to be outraged by things.

A Tulsa publication saying OKC is losing population? Color me shocked. It uses very specificly defined data to get to this result. I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.

OK's economy has run counter to the rest of the country for decades now. When the rest of the nation's economy is down, ours tends to be up and vice versa. No surprise there.

And we do care about education. Every time we vote for something that is supposed to be spent on education or teacher pay, it always gets consumed by administration and doesn't filter down to the actual teachers in the classroom. We need to go about this in a different manner. I don't know what the solution is but we can't keep voting and doing the same thing and expect different results. We need to figure out a foolproof way to get a pay raise to the teachers in the classrooms and not the administration. In fact, quite a bit of administration could probably be weeded out.

I don't think everything is hunky dory, magic and rainbows in OK. But I also don't believe the sky is falling either.

----------


## LocoAko

> A Tulsa publication saying OKC is losing population? Color me shocked. It uses very specificly defined data to get to this result. I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.


FWIW, Tulsa World wasn't the one who did the study -- it was LinkedIn -- and they reported all of the cities on the list (headline given to OKC for obvious reasons). You can come up with flaws in the methodology, but let's not turn this into thinking it's a hit piece on OKC just because it was a Tulsa-based source.

----------


## BG918

> FWIW, Tulsa World wasn't the one who did the study -- it was LinkedIn -- and they reported all of the cities on the list (headline given to OKC for obvious reasons). You can come up with flaws in the methodology, but let's not turn this into thinking it's a hit piece on OKC just because it was a Tulsa-based source.


Exactly, I'm sure if you dug into it you would probably come to the same conclusion with Tulsa.  And obviously it's not all because of the state government.  OK's economy is just not as robust as many other areas in the country which forces many professionals to move for better opportunities.  Especially with some of the top performing markets (DFW, Austin, Denver) within driving distance from most of OK.

----------


## Pete

It's data from Linkedin, which means they monitor people who are registered on that site and changes to their city.

I suspect this could be to the downturn in O&G as most those people are on Linkedin.

But of course the huge majority of people working in OKC are not on that site at all.

----------


## Mike_M

> I think everyone just needs to pump the brakes here. People tend to overreact on these boards . We love to be outraged by things.
> 
> A Tulsa publication saying OKC is losing population? Color me shocked. It uses very specificly defined data to get to this result. I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.
> 
> OK's economy has run counter to the rest of the country for decades now. When the rest of the nation's economy is down, ours tends to be up and vice versa. No surprise there.
> 
> And we do care about education. Every time we vote for something that is supposed to be spent on education or teacher pay, it always gets consumed by administration and doesn't filter down to the actual teachers in the classroom. We need to go about this in a different manner. I don't know what the solution is but we can't keep voting and doing the same thing and expect different results. We need to figure out a foolproof way to get a pay raise to the teachers in the classrooms and not the administration. In fact, quite a bit of administration could probably be weeded out.
> 
> I don't think everything is hunky dory, magic and rainbows in OK. But I also don't believe the sky is falling either.


I don't think we should wait for the sky to fall before we make changes.

Cost of living is really cool if you have a lot of options. If you're young without kids, or older with self sufficient kids, this is a great place for you. There's enough to occupy you most of the year, and you save a ton of money to travel across the country (or world) and enjoy whatever adventure you pick. 

The issue is, that huge millenial demographic that the MAPS projects kept in town, is getting older and having kids. I think you're going to see Oklahoma's education system and incompetent legislation under the same microscope that our nightlife was under 10 years ago.

----------


## cinnamonjock

How does Oklahoma City's public schools compare to those of other major cities nearby? I always hear about people moving to the suburbs for the schools and wonder if the schools inside the city are really that bad and if they are like that througout the country.

----------


## Bunty

When do the next census estimates come out, so we can really know if there is genuine cause for concern?

----------


## KayneMo

> When do the next census estimates come out, so we can really know if there is genuine cause for concern?


I believe May 2018.

----------


## turnpup

> I wonder if OKC is also losing population of left handed people who play guitar right handed.


I'm left-handed but play golf right handed, and I'm staying here in OKC. Does that count?  :Smile:

----------


## traxx

> FWIW, Tulsa World wasn't the one who did the study -- it was LinkedIn -- and they reported all of the cities on the list (headline given to OKC for obvious reasons). You can come up with flaws in the methodology, but let's not turn this into thinking it's a hit piece on OKC just because it was a Tulsa-based source.


Yeah, I can read. I know who did the study. And it's something that probably wouldn't have gotten any press but a Tulsa newspaper saw that they could take a dig at OKC. That was my point. And like I said, the parameters are so specific as to nearly have no value. If you define a parameter specificly enough, you can make numbers do anything you want.

----------


## traxx

> I'm left-handed but play golf right handed, and I'm staying here in OKC. Does that count?


Absolutely. Let's get the DOK to write an article about that.  :Big Grin:

----------


## Hondo1

I don't discredit the article just because it comes from the Tulsa World.  We would be cheering if it had said OKC was gaining population.  Last Thursday around rush hour I was driving downtown; something I rarely have a need to do.  There was a lot of congestion - a lot of people, a lot of cars, a lot of robust activity.  Not what I expected from a CBD whose vacancy rate is near 20%.  So, I was bolstered by the experience of near gridlock. But I have to say I’m not surprised by the subject of the article.  For some time, I've felt the city is either stagnating or losing population as there just aren't as many commuters.  I don't have hard figures but I know what I see and experience on a daily basis and in spite of a multitude of construction projects around the city and the vibe of The Plaza District, Midtown, Paseo, etc. I see less people, less traffic congestion and generally less vitality compared to three or four years ago, although the CBD may be an exception because of its density.  One thing's for sure.  As the losses are most certainly attributable to oil and gas, we're in a world of future hurt unless something is done to diversify our economy fast, because renewable energy is not going away and it just keeps getting better and better.  FWIW, I just read where Nashville is gaining a hundred new residents a day.  Didn’t say who was doing the tracking but I would think we would be able to track similar patterns - either losses or gains.  Maybe utility registrations / cutoffs?

----------


## bchris02

> I don't discredit the article just because it comes from the Tulsa World.  We would be cheering if it had said OKC was gaining population.  Last Thursday around rush hour I was driving downtown; something I rarely have a need to do.  There was a lot of congestion - a lot of people, a lot of cars, a lot of robust activity.  Not what I expected from a CBD whose vacancy rate is near 20%.  So, I was bolstered by the experience of near gridlock. But I have to say I’m not surprised by the subject of the article. * For some time, I've felt the city is either stagnating or losing population as there just aren't as many commuters.  I don't have hard figures but I know what I see and experience on a daily basis and in spite of a multitude of construction projects around the city and the vibe of The Plaza District, Midtown, Paseo, etc. I see less people, less traffic congestion and generally less vitality compared to three or four years ago,* although the CBD may be an exception because of its density.  One thing's for sure.  As the losses are most certainly attributable to oil and gas, we're in a world of future hurt unless something is done to diversify our economy fast, because renewable energy is not going away and it just keeps getting better and better.  FWIW, I just read where Nashville is gaining a hundred new residents a day.  Didn’t say who was doing the tracking but I would think we would be able to track similar patterns - either losses or gains.  Maybe utility registrations / cutoffs?


I strongly disagree with what I bolded.  In my opinion, Oklahoma City has come a long way compared to 3-4 years ago and feels a lot more vibrant now.  When I came back here in 2012, Bricktown was pretty much the only legitimate nightlife district.  The Plaza was pretty much just Saint's.  Midtown was pretty much just McNellie's.  There was nothing in Film Row.  The Paseo was similar today but it still had a somewhat sketchy element to it that is absent today.  With that said, I will agree that it seems like momentum has really slowed down recently in terms of new projects being announced.

----------


## Plutonic Panda

Yeah from my experience driving from Edmond to DTOKC traffic is worse than it’s ever been. Last month it took me an hour and a half during rush hour to get there. It’s neber taken me more than 30 mins before.

----------


## stile99

Well, to be fair, attempting to gauge population based on traffic would be about as accurate as attempting to gauge it by locations listed in the profile of users on one website.

----------


## Plutonic Panda

True!

----------


## traxx

> Well, to be fair, attempting to gauge population based on traffic would be about as accurate as attempting to gauge it by locations listed in the profile of users on one website.


This

----------


## stlokc

OKC is not losing population. 

On another note, I found this list to be very interesting and certainly encouraging: 

http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf

----------


## HOT ROD

OKC in the top 10 youngest age cities, from #18 in 2010. very impressive

----------


## stlokc

Yes. But the more impressive stat to me is that we are aging slower than any other city. Hard to believe but I’ll take it!

----------


## G.Walker

This is obviously a Tulsa World move to show some negativity to OKC. I mean who writes an article & site LinkedIn? lol  

Just because they changed cities in LinkedIn, doesn't hold merit. 37 out of 10,000 is not bad, lol. 

Population growth for a decade has never been linear, it will go up and down. We are on pace to have good growth this decade, not worried.

----------


## G.Walker

> OKC is not losing population. 
> 
> On another note, I found this list to be very interesting and certainly encouraging: 
> 
> http://www.demographia.com/db-metroage.pdf


I find it more interesting that pretty much every cities median population is in the mid 30's. That is weird, I wonder why that is?

----------


## pw405

> It's data from Linkedin, which means they monitor people who are registered on that site and changes to their city.
> 
> I suspect this could be to the downturn in O&G as most those people are on Linkedin.
> 
> But of course the huge majority of people working in OKC are not on that site at all.


I tend to agree.  I started in the O&G industry back in 2013.  Many stories I heard from people who worked on drilling rigs were: "hell, over the past few years I would just quit if I didn't like the boss.  Make a few calls and have a new job by the time I got home".  I worked with people from all over the world.  Large scale layoffs have largely subsided today, but over the last year or so, I know of at least 5 people who opted to leave the industry and state all together as they were fearful they would be next to get laid off. I've even considered leaving the state if I lost my job and couldn't find a somewhat similar salary here. I would have never considered leaving a few years ago.  I've ultimately decided to just hang on in the OG industry and go down with the ship if that's what happens.  An industry downturn like OG has experienced has a funny way of making people fearful.  I've been preparing to lose my job (in terms of spending habits) for almost 3 years now. I don't have to worry about kids, wife, car payments, or a McMansion payment I couldn't afford if I lost my job (I have a mortgage, but one I can afford on the salary I was earning before entering the industry).  For many that moved here from out of state and took a high paying job in the OG industry and bought a lifestyle that assumed the salary would last forever, you can bet that they are likely moving back now that the national economy is so much brighter.

----------


## HOT ROD

that was my thought also G.Walker, particularly since they failed to mention Tulsa was not even on the list or hold a proper context of the Linked-In article itself (as in theres a drop in members on LI who state their residence as OKC) or that 'apparently' OKC must have had growth in LI members until now. 

That or similar approach would have been a more balanced way to do 'report' the finding even if the hidden intent was a dig, but the way the World article was written was surely a dig at OKC's 20+ year renaissance and recent popularity.

----------


## SSEiYah

The real estate market in certain suburban areas of NW OKC and Edmond seems to have cooled off quite a bit this year at least with used homes in the 250-300k range. They are sitting on the market quite a bit longer than say in 2015 when I started casually looking for a larger home. I have one I'm watching currently which has had a 50K worth of price reductions over the last 6 months and is now 30K below tax accessed value. It seems like a deal but I'm going to wait to see if they do another reduction. I've seen a few others sell for 10-15% below tax accessed value over the past 6 months which was not the case say in 2014/2015.

----------


## Teo9969

There is 0% chase that Oklahoma City, or just about any other Top 50 city in the country is *losing* population.

I can agree to an extent that Oklahoma City has seen a slow down since those 2013/14 days when it seemed like every week exciting new announcements were being made all over the city, and people seemed to have more of a fervor for OKC than there is at this very current juncture...

But the reality is that this is an Oil & Gas State and the 2014/15 crash has taken an unreal toll on the state and OKC is in no way immune to that. The fact that OKC didn't buckle but continued to push forward and see progress within the economy and culture is a cause for rejoicing among OKC residents. If oil does not take another 9 to 18 month turn for the worse (under $45) in the next 5 years, the only real thing that will be a thorn in the side to OKC's continued Renaissance is if the fools at 23rd and Lincoln continue to mortgage the future in favor of political posturing.

To that end, we can only hope that people in Oklahoma begin to take their local politics seriously and begin to consider the full scope of their actions. 

It may not be the star child it was 5 years ago, but it's doing great in the midst of a challenge that has, in the past, immediately sent us on 10-15 year death spiral.

----------


## dcsooner

Diversify or stagnate

----------


## pw405

> There is 0% chase that Oklahoma City, or just about any other Top 50 city in the country is *losing* population.
> 
> I can agree to an extent that Oklahoma City has seen a slow down since those 2013/14 days when it seemed like every week exciting new announcements were being made all over the city, and people seemed to have more of a fervor for OKC than there is at this very current juncture...
> 
> But the reality is that this is an Oil & Gas State and the 2014/15 crash has taken an unreal toll on the state and OKC is in no way immune to that. The fact that OKC didn't buckle but continued to push forward and see progress within the economy and culture is a cause for rejoicing among OKC residents. If oil does not take another 9 to 18 month turn for the worse (under $45) in the next 5 years, the only real thing that will be a thorn in the side to OKC's continued Renaissance is if the fools at 23rd and Lincoln continue to mortgage the future in favor of political posturing.
> 
> To that end, we can only hope that people in Oklahoma begin to take their local politics seriously and begin to consider the full scope of their actions. 
> 
> It may not be the star child it was 5 years ago, but it's doing great in the midst of a challenge that has, in the past, immediately sent us on 10-15 year death spiral.


Very well said, Teo.  Especially considering the part that while OKC has certainly pulled back from the fever pitch of 4-5 years ago, the city has finally proven that it can continue to grow even during a once in a generation energy crash.  Back when the commodity price crash started happening, I had a theory that it may actually cause some people to move to OKC who were formerly living in surrounding rural areas.  An example being a lease operator or field office employee of the energy industry who decides to seek other employment opportunities in capitol city instead of looking for work in Kingfisher, Alva, Enid, etc.  I don't have any data to confirm this theory, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

----------


## mugofbeer

> Truthfully, we've just about gotten to the point where if they aren't, they probably should be looking into it.  It's not just teachers any more.  Cheap cost of living sorta loses a bit of the shine when the state is broke and essential services are being cut if not entirely eliminated.  Imagine the condition of our roads and bridges the last decade or so.  That will be the condition across other services as well.


Not understanding you here.  I travel all OK interstates and most smaller hiways in wesrern OK and have noted a significant improvement in most areas.  I would kill if State hiway3 were upgraded all the way to CO but most hiways are pretty good - - especially the tolls and interstates.  Complete elimination of state services?  Which ones and for whom?  I'll give you education.  No excuse for that.  I think you are more expressing your own feelings.  Maybe you've  personally past that pointof no return and should think about going somewhere that meets you standards.  You're getting pretty negative.

----------


## stile99

> Not understanding you here.


Try keeping up with current events.  People keeping their heads in the sand is exactly what brought us here.

And let's be serious, if "love it or leave it" is really all you got, do you really have anything to add?

----------

